Queensland state election editorial: David Crisafulli just not cutting through

David Crisafulli is in the box seat to become the next Premier of Queensland in a week – but it’s clear he still has work to do to assume the top job.

David Crisafulli is in the box seat to become the next Premier of Queensland in a week – but it’s clear he still has work to do to completely win over the electorate and assume the top job.

At the same time, it’s increasingly clear that Labor made the right decision when it dumped Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk for Steven Miles last December.

Labor hardheads looking at the latest polling are possibly only lamenting that they made the decision too late.

Had they moved on Premier Palaszczuk six months earlier, it’s quite possible Labor would be in with a fighting chance. Because Miles is, unquestionably, making a personal connection with the people of Queensland.

His popularity may stem partly from the ALP’s skill with social media when it comes to campaigning.

But beyond TikTok, Facebook, Miles’ affable nature and his “daggy dad’’ persona, it’s clear that his success in connecting with the electorate is being boosted by his opponent’s failure to do the same thing.

Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli is in the box seat to become the next premier of Queensland. Picture: Liam Kidston.

The polling suggests strongly that the more the public see of LNP leader David Crisafulli, the less they like him.

Latest YouGov Polling, detailed in the Saturday Courier Mail, reveals Crisafulli’s lead as preferred Premier has collapsed from 11 per cent in the last YouGov poll to just 1 per cent in today’s poll.

Miles is now preferred as premier by women voters, those under 50 years of age and inner-city voters.

Just one month ago, a separate Newspoll showed 46 per cent regarded the LNP leader as the better premier, with 39 per cent backing Miles.

Yet after three weeks of campaigning, Crisafulli’s support has wound back to the point there is little daylight between the two contenders.

Crisafulli’s support as preferred premier is now down to 37 per cent, while Miles is at 36 per cent.

Older voters, male voters, regional, rural and coastal voters are lining up behind Crisafulli while women and inner-city residents and the under-50s are behind Miles.

The politics of personality won’t likely change the loss suffered by Labor next Saturday.

On two-party preferred voting intentions, today’s YouGov poll has the LNP on 55 per cent while the ALP is on 45 per cent.

That represents an 8 per cent swing to the LNP from the 2020 election.

Miles may be performing well in social media, the pubs and shopping malls, but that is unlikely to prevent Labor from losing most of the coastal and regional seats which it holds outside the state capital.

It’s obvious the Premier’s amiable nature and offer of free school lunches and 50c public transport fares won’t be enough to counter the weight of Labor’s wider performance on health, crime, the cost-of-living crisis and the debacle that passes for planning for the Brisbane Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Yet Crisafulli is being seen as too polished, too carefully crafted in his speech and too reluctant to be open with the electorate about what he has planned for the state.

Miles has highlighted this perception, this week accusing Crisafulli of being “dishonest’’ about his intentions on matters ranging from abortion and women’s rights to cuts to health care.

The LNP has, unquestionably adopted the small-target strategy in what looks increasingly like its successful bid for office.

But, once in power, the LNP leader will clearly have to make a connection with the Queensland electorate if the party is to remain in office long enough to make a lasting impact upon the state.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Melanie Pilling, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details are available at www.couriermail.com.au/help/contact-us