Premier David Crisafulli is desperate to win Hinchinbrook.

He hates Ingham being represented by the crossbench and has one shot to win it back and fulfil his fairytale.

But few brawl in the bush tougher than Katter’s Australian Party – and they won’t let it go easily.

While the by-election won’t change the government, the shockwave of its result will spread far from north Queensland.

The November 29 by-election, sparked by the resignation of Nick Dametto to become Townsville mayor, will be the first voter verdict on the Crisafulli LNP government.

It will be closely watched by Opposition Leader Steven Miles and Labor Party thinkers who know the party needs to improve its showing outside southeast Queensland.

Raising the stakes is the quintessential Queensland right-wing political war waged between mavericks Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson.

HOT BATTLEGROUND

The Hinchinbrook electorate is a slither of Queensland’s coast stretching from the outer suburbs of Townsville north 230km to Cardstone.

With a few Great Barrier Reef islands added it reaches a whopping 6500sq/m – 50 times the size of Mr Crisafulli’s Gold Coast electorate of Broadwater.

It’s a difficult challenge for a political candidate because Hinchinbrook has no city hub where tens of thousands of easily-accessible voters would live.

Instead small agricultural towns, all with fewer than 5000 people, dot the flood-prone Bruce Highway.

There’s no risk of flooding during this by-election with dry conditions instead prompting a warning to motorists about the dangers of wild horses searching for food.

Ingham is still recovering from deadly flooding that claimed the life of Jessie Billy and Elaine Steley in February.

Hinchinbrook is populated with hardworking, aspirational people with individual interests.

Cardwell residents demand dredging at Port Hinchinbrook and anywhere north of there, if you’re not talking about bananas you’re not in the conversation.

Tully residents treat torrential rain like a test of character – who moves undercover first?

It’s sugarcane in Ingham, cattle further to the west and pineapples in the south before the vast emptiness makes way for the metropolitan melting pot of Townsville’s northern suburbs.

Some 60 per cent of the electorate’s voters live within 50km of the electorate’s southern boundary at the edge of Townsville City.

Labor held Hinchinbrook from its establishment in 1950 to 1957 before losing it to the Country Party in 1960.

For 55 years it was held by the Country, later National and then Liberal National parties before Katter’s Australian Party’s Nick Dametto in 2017 defeated Newman-era Natural Resources and Mines Minister Andrew Cripps.

Now, Mr Crisafulli’s old mate Wayde Chiesa is running to return the seat to the LNP and defeat Katter’s Australian Party’s Mark Molachino.

KAP’s Mr Dametto won the seat in October with a 13 per cent two-party vote over the LNP.

The key to the by-election is how much of that is rusted on Katter support and how much is a personal endorsement of Mr Dametto – who at Saturday’s mayoral vote recorded a stunning 62 per cent primary vote.

LNP figures have played down their chances at winning the seat but insist KAP’s decision to run Mr Molachino – a previous Labor Party member who was voted out of Townsville City Council in March 2024 – has given them a “sniff”.

“If KAP just put a Katter from central casting they would have won this in a canter,” they said.

“This choice has given us a pathway through.”

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POLITICAL REVENGE

The iconic and original Pub With No Beer is at the heart of Ingham.

It’s there Mr Molachino cradles a schooner alongside party leader Robbie Katter to flatly reject claims he’s Labor disguised in a Katter hat.

“No one’s saying to me, oh, you’re an ex-Labor person,” he said.

“I started my political career in the Country Party and basically I’ve just come home now to where I should have stayed.

“I was in a Labor council with a Labor state government there … the crime stuff really just took over everyone’s lives and they just wouldn’t budge on trying to fix it.”

Mr Molachino grew up cutting cane in Ingham before he joined the Royal Australian Air Force and moved away aged 25.

He acknowledges Mr Crisafulli has become somewhat of a hometown hero in Ingham, but takes a swipe at the Premier for moving to the Gold Coast.

“I know a lot of people in the town like he does as well,” Mr Molachino said.

“I’ve lived here for a little bit longer than he did but you know he’s done really well for himself over the last couple of years – unfortunately he had to abandon North Queensland and head to Brisbane to deliver his dreams and that’s been disappointing for the people up here.”

Mr Molachino argues the LNP doesn’t need the seat and should have delivered what it’s now promising months ago.

“They’re throwing out all these promises … why haven’t you done it in the last 12 months you’ve been in power?”

He argues a victorious Mr Chiesa would become the 24th LNP backbencher told to “sit down the back with tape across his mouth and nod”.

“What’s the point of having a head nodder down there doing that sort of rubbish?”

Robbie Katter, who during our interview is mistaken by a colourful local as “Bob’s brother”, says an LNP win in Hinchinbrook wouldn’t weaken his party.

“We’re a perennial force,” he said.

“People need a voice in regional Queensland and we’re just going to be there.

“I think that’s why we’re getting such venomous attack, because there’s a lot of truth in what we’re saying.”

He lambastes the lack of focus on policies in the by-election and tips the LNP’s refusal to take on Castle Law and do something about crocodiles will hurt the government.

Mr Katter also takes aim at One Nation for preferencing a major political party – the LNP- above a minor with the same ideological bent.

“They’re very excited about their nationwide polling but they’ve got to learn a thing or two about politics – you can’t just cut and paste nationwide polling and apply it in every electorate,” he said.

“They’ve got a history of just parachuting in a drover’s dog candidate into whatever seat around Queensland.

“They have been acting more and more just like default Coalition partners which makes them completely irrelevant as a minor party.”

One Nation’s decision to preference the LNP is another blow to Katter’s Australian Party, which is aligned with Pauline Hanson’s movement.

It’s also political revenge.

The parties had a falling out, understood to be over KAP’s “petulant behaviour” in luring Queensland MP Stephen Andrew from One Nation and teaming up with former Senator Gerrard Rennick at the federal election.

The final nail, according to One Nation, was KAP’s decision to run the Labor-linked Mr Molachino.

NO SERVANT

Mr Chiesa is an old friend of Mr Crisafulli who has called rugby league for almost a decade.

He stands on his family’s generational cane farm southeast of the town and points out the room his father was born in and he grew up in.

Across the electorate his picture is rarely seen without one of Mr Crisafulli.

Katter’s Australian Party and Labor candidate Maurie Soars – who hasn’t bothered to print too many corflutes for the campaign – argue Mr Chiesa simply become Mr Crisafulli’s “yes man” in Brisbane.

“Not only the Premier, but ministers know I’m going to fight hard so respectfully, I say that’s untrue,” Mr Chiesa said.

“I’m going to work hard, I’m going to listen and hopefully if I show the community that I get the opportunity to represent them.

“It’ll be something special.”

Mr Chisea won’t be drawn into whether he supports Castle Law – the KAP plan to provide protection to homeowners who injure a person breaking into their property.

“I just want to keep them out of your home and I don’t want to put up the white flag,” he said.

The LNP government says it won’t adopt Castle Law despite Mr Dametto’s petition securing 114,000 signatures, including those of Mr Chiesa’s family members.

“The steps that the Crisafulli government put in place in the last 12 months are starting to make a difference, we need to take the next step because people need to feel safe,” he said.

That next step, and to fight KAP’s Castle Law, is Mr Chiesa’s policy: Breach bail, go to jail.

He reveals the plan was endorsed by Victor White – the husband of murdered grandmother Vyleen – in a touching, private conversation.

However, Mr Chiesa has little detail on whether the policy would apply to all breach of bail offences or those committed by serious repeat offenders.

“My plan is to continue listening and then focus on getting the support of Hinchinbrook, then getting a seat at the table then working with the Attorney-General, the Minister for Justice and the Police Minister to actually get the stronger laws in place,” he said.

HOW TO WIN

Former Hinchinbrook MP Nick Dametto, now Townsville mayor, says the key to winning Hinchinbrook is Ingham.

“You need to win Ingham first,” he said.

He predicts an “arm wrestle” political battle between Mr Chisea and Mr Molachino.

The cane town might be key, but Mr Dametto’s message is candidates must “work your backside off” to hear the voices of battlers in Cardwell, Tully Heads, Euromo and other small places.

“They’re the forgotten people … they’re too far away from Cairns and too far away from Townsville,” he said.

“The people in those areas, they like to be left alone, but they don’t want to be forgotten.”

Now an independent mayor Mr Dametto won’t endorse anyone, but confirms he will vote for Katter’s Australian Party.

He agrees with the rival attacks that Mr Chisea would become subservient to Mr Crisafulli.

“It doesn’t matter with Liberal, Labor … the party machine has an ability to rub off the rough edges until the point that they are doing what’s necessary for the party rather than maybe what’s right for regional Queensland,” Mr Dametto said.

RISING AGAIN

Ingham is still recovering from deadly flooding that claimed the life of Jessie Billy in February.

Hinchinbrook Mayor Ramon Jayo said the town had mostly returned to normal.

“We still have a fair few houses that were damaged that haven’t been repaired yet so people are still displaced and that’s just solely because there’s just a lack of tradies,” he said.

“Getting supplies in, materials (is) not a problem, but the workforce … the skill shortage is really evident.”

The decision of the first settlers in 1864 to build the town close to Palm Creek so they wouldn’t have to cart water long distances meant flooding is a regular occurrence.

Despite the frequency, Mr Jayo says the town bounces back and has a bright future with an immediate focus on disaster resilience and trunk infrastructure to build more houses out of flood zones.

He wants to lure more tourists and diversify agriculture when cane fields lie fallow.

The council trialled planting beans and pulses to provide an alternative source of income which, while successful, wasn’t sustainable due to the region’s volatile weather.

“We have a very reliable annual rainfall, 2.5m or whatever, but it’s not really reliable when it falls – it might all fall in two weeks,” he said.

“Other than for sugar cane, there’s no crop that can handle that.”

Mr Jayo argues Mr Crisafulli isn’t “favouring” Ingham now he’s in the state’s top job but has noticed an improvement in how the bureaucracy considers applications for development.

“Every development that we have to do here impinges on some part of the environment,” he said.

“We don’t rape and pillage. We do protect the environment.

“You could jump in our river now – I wouldn’t suggest you do because you’ll get eaten by a crocodile – but you can drink that. The water is clear, it’s clean … you can’t do that down in Brisbane.”

MY BROTHER’S DESPERATE

Mr Crisafulli’s sister Belinda Spina owns two clothing stores in Ingham – Lisa Maree and UndeRagers.

She’s not done a media interview in almost a decade and shunned the spotlight when he ran for Premier in October.

However, Ms Spina spoke openly when asked by The Courier-Mail this month how desperate her brother was to claim Hinchinbrook.

“He wants to win this by-election, he really wants to win,” she said.

“This by-election actually means nothing for his political purpose because he doesn’t lose a seat, he doesn’t lose his premiership but he would love to win it because this is his hometown.”

When the Premier returns home he is mobbed by old friends and “everybody loves him”, Ms Spina says.

Is it enough for the LNP to take Hinchinbrook?

“It could go either way,” she said.

Karen Venables runs the hugely-popular JKS Deli on Ingham’s main street.

In her window is a poser promoting Mr Chiesa and Mr Crisafulli – who she’s known since she was 15.

They attended Ingham State High School together and he also worked part-time at the Coles deli.

“I can remember when he was (a journalist) at the Herbert River Express I said you will be Prime Minister of Australia or you will be Premier of the state one day because what you see is what you get with David,” she said.

Pre-polling is underway ahead of the November 29 by-election.