Opinion: Election postmortem reveals Libs’ existential threat
A bombshell post-election study has exposed the Coalition's deepest crisis in decades, writes Paul Williams.
Why did Australians vote the way they did in this year’s federal election?
Did they like a party’s leader? Or was it a particular policy? Do we consider ourselves rusted-on party voters, or genuine independents?
To answer these questions, we’re fortunate Australian psephologists – those who study elections – every three years compile a federal post-election survey of voters’ attitudes.
And this year’s Australian Election Study is a real eye-opener. Let’s unpack a few of the highlights of how and why we voted in May.
It’s a no-brainer that, of 10 listed issues, the cost of living should be the top concern for 36 per cent of us.
But the fact cost-of-living was more important this year than in 2022, when inflation was much higher, suggests we live in a two-speed economy.
Economists might tell us the inflation genie is back in the bottle, but the rest of us know grocery prices are still ballooning.
Health and Medicare came in second, and general economic management third.
That tells us we’re living with a “material” mindset where climate change and the environment (on 5 and 3 per cent, respectively) are today far less important than our family finances.
Interestingly, despite the recent brouhaha, only 6 per cent of Aussies rated immigration as the top issue.
You might also be surprised that just 11 per cent of us chose our vote on a leader’s appeal. The fact that 56 per cent voted on policy concerns is reassuring that most Australians think laterally about their vote.
And it’s on policy the Coalition needs to worry most. For the first time since the 1980s (when Bob Hawke was prime minister), Labor has overtaken the Liberals as the “better” economic manager.
The Libs cannot return to government until they retake that economic mantle.
But worse Coalition news is found in the fact Labor bested the Coalition in eight other policy areas – health, education, climate change, the environment, cost of living, housing, tax and immigration – with the Coalition seen as stronger only on national security: an issue rated No.1 by just 3 per cent of voters.
Even so, while good leaders rarely “make” a party’s vote, bad leaders can indeed “break” it. It’s obvious Peter Dutton was a huge drag on the Coalition, but it’s surprising he is rated our least popular leader in 40 years.
Attaining a score of just 3.2 out of 10, Dutton was even more disliked than Bill Shorten (4.2).
It’s perhaps no surprise Albo outpolled Dutton on all nine traits: intelligence, compassion, knowledge, being sensible, competence, strength, honesty, trustworthiness and being inspiring. To those now shouting disbelief, remember: Your opinion does not reflect that of the Australian majority.
The Liberals, of course, have deeper existential problems.
With just 24 per cent of Australians describing themselves as Liberal voters (compared with 33 per cent Labor), Liberals for the first time are outnumbered by those with no party identification.
When we factor in the Liberals’ ageing voter pool – this year, just 21 per cent of Gen Y (born between 1981 and 1996) voted for the Coalition – we see a party whose base is literally dying off.
Until the Liberals propose youth-friendly policies, the Coalition risks going the way of the dinosaur.
But the growing dealignment – where voters increasingly abandon their party loyalties without making new ones – is a problem for all parties.
This year we saw the biggest crossbench vote, 33.6 per cent, for parties other than Labor and the Coalition since 1910.
The implication is clear: Independents are here to stay, and will only grow in number.
Hung parliaments and minority governments might just become the norm.
There’s bad news in the fact just 32 per cent of us trust governments – down from 50 per cent in the late 1960s – but the good news is 70 per cent still prefer democracy over any other political model.
Makes you wonder about the 30 per cent who would prefer living under dictatorship.
Worryingly, support for compulsory voting, at just 67 per cent, is at its lowest in decades. Happily, 74 per cent said they would still vote if voluntary.
And support for an Australian republic, at 56 per cent, is now in the majority. But there’s little support (13 per cent) for lowering the vote to 16 years of age.
But the most surprising number is found in the fact that, despite the Voice to Parliament’s defeat, more Australians than not think more regular referendums are a good idea.
This tells me Australians are still engaged and our democracy is safe – at least for now.
Paul Williams is an associate professor at Griffith University
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Originally published as Opinion: Election postmortem reveals Libs’ existential threat
