Opinion: Latest poll positive for Qld LNP but vulnerabilities exposed
Expect One Nation in Queensland next year to approach the 23 per cent vote it captured in 1998, writes Paul Williams.
The looming silly season allows all of us to draw a relaxed breath before reflecting gratefully upon the fact we scraped through another year, even if a little scathed.
Politicians are no different, and Premier David Crisafulli will be treating the most recent Demos opinion poll as an early Christmas gift.
That poll pegs LNP primary support at 37 points – down 4.5 points from the 2024 election but up four points from the previous Resolve survey.
Labor has sunk to 29 per cent (down 2.6 points from the election).
The after-preference vote, at 54 to 46, suggests the LNP would win three extra seats if an election were held tomorrow.
The numbers suggest the LNP – after a mediocre first year at state level and a brutal thumping at federal – has climbed out of a public opinion hole the party largely dug for itself.
By picking fights with the caring sector (nurses, teachers), ditching Labor sweeteners from the budget, hiring LNP mates for key jobs, and trading a long-promised transparency for political expediency, the government made its first year in office much harder than it needed to be.
Even so, this poll means Crisafulli can relax, right? Wrong.
Hidden inside that Demos poll is a string of public opinion landmines that, quietly ticking away, could easily blow up in the LNP’s face at the 2028 election.
The first is a surge in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Registering 14 per cent in Demos (up six points since the election), One Nation is peaking at 18 per cent in federal polls. Regardless of carbon emissions policy, as long as moderates lead both the state and federal conservative parties, the hard right in Queensland will continue to flee the LNP for the dumb if easy answers One Nation is happy to offer. Expect One Nation in Queensland next year to approach the 23 per cent it captured in 1998.
The second landmine is found in the LNP’s very undercooked policy offerings of the last election campaign. Crisafulli came to office pledging to fix five crises he blamed on Labor: the cost of living, housing, crime, hospital ramping, and the slow rollout of Olympic infrastructure.
Interestingly, the issue the LNP campaigned most ardently on – youth crime – ranked only third for voters last year, behind inflation and housing. Nonetheless, the new government rushed “adult crime, adult time” laws through Parliament (despite huge holes where attempted murder was not included) and has since crowed loudly about falling crime figures.
But the LNP’s reassurances don’t match Queenslanders’ experience. The Demos poll found slightly more voters were dissatisfied by the Government’s crime results than those who are satisfied.
But there’s worse news.
The LNP is also suffering a minus three rating on health, a minus 12 rating on electricity prices and – the big ones – minus 36 and minus 38-point ratings for housing and the cost of living respectively. This is alarming given housing and inflation remain the top two issues for Queenslanders.
Sadly for the government, the LNP’s only real success story, Olympic infrastructure – enjoying a plus seven point satisfaction rating – is cited as the most important issue by just one per cent of the population. That’s like awarding a gold medal for being punctual.
Worse still, the state LNP trails Labor substantially among voters under 35, and is level with Labor among the middle-aged. Like its federal counterpart, if the Queensland LNP doesn’t evolve, its ageing base will quietly die as successive generations become wedded to the left.
Add the fact Labor is still outpolling the LNP in Brisbane – where almost half the parliament’s seats are found – and the fact the loss of just six seats will see Crisafulli lose his majority, and the LNP after its first (and what should be it strongest) year looks remarkably fragile.
Yes, Crisafulli still leads Labor leader Steven Miles as preferred premier, 44 to 32 points, but, anecdotally Queenslanders aren’t happy. While the idea of Crisafulli being spilled as leader might seem preposterous today, other states’ conservative parties are currently infested with a leadership virus.
This week, the Victorian Liberals dumped their leader despite victory at the next election being almost inevitable, with the New South Wales Nationals doing the same, and with the NSW Liberal leader also under pressure.
Yes, traditional conservative parties – wedged between progressive social democrats and the loony populist right – are struggling for identity everywhere.
If Queensland’s LNP doesn’t figure out what it is and what it’s doing about housing, energy and the cost of living, Crisafulli will almost certainly be a one-term wonder.
Paul Williams is an associate professor at Griffith University
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Originally published as Opinion: Latest poll positive for Qld LNP but vulnerabilities exposed
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