James Morrow and Joe Hildebrand outline the case for Labor and the Coalition in upcoming poll

The federal election may not have been called yet, but Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are both campaigning for their political lives. We take a (slightly tongue-in-cheek) look at who you should vote for.

We rarely toss a government after one term, yet the polls say otherwise, writes James Morrow. Here’s seven hopes for the ALP

1. China

China has not invaded. This seems like an obvious point, but these days territorial integrity cannot be taken for granted.

So what if our “eyes in the sky” picking up those Chinese live fire exercises belonged to a Virgin Airways flight crew? That’s how Aussies are, always looking out for each other.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: David Caird

2. Negativity

Negativity works. And, to be clear, we are talking about negative advertising, not the negative gearing beloved of so many Labor (and Liberal!) MPs.

The fact that Peter Dutton simply rolled over and committed an extra half a billion bucks to Labor’s $8.5bn Medicare package suggests how terrified they are of an ALP scare campaign.

3. Digging dirt

So do “dirt units”. Albanese’s Camperdown to cliffside mansion story has been much mocked (how do you “fight Tories” when you live like one?).

So you can bet behind the scenes Labor has a team of diggers looking to turn Peter Dutton’s aspirational story, fairly or not, into something a bit on the nose.

4. Money matters

Numbers don’t lie — but they can be beaten into submission, so Albanese will still claim to have a good narrative around a falling (rate of) inflation even though we’re all paying far more to hit Coles than we did three years ago and our per capita GDP is going backwards.

Journalist James Morrow. Picture: Justin Lloyd

5. Unfocused anger

Anger isn’t focused. Bringing up politics west of, say, the Marrickville Metro shopping centre reveals a lot of anger at Labor over cost of living and much else besides.

But how much of that will flow direct to the Liberals on polling day, and how much will get lost in a sea of protest parties?

6. Instant voters

Speaking of numbers, Labor insiders acknowledge that this is going to be a tough, seat-by-seat, street-by-street battle and they’re going to need every vote they can get.

Thanks to patriotic citizenship-stamper Tony Burke, there’s now about 12,500 potential votes for the picking.

7. Dull sheen

Inertia is powerful. If there’s two things Australians hate, it’s change and flashy politics. Though his ministers may go off on incredibly destructive frolics (think Penny Wong … or Chris Bowen … or Tony Burke … or, well you get the idea), Albanese presents as a dull public servant who makes Britain’s Keir Starmer look like Bob Hawke by comparison.

Combined with that distaste for change and, well, Albo’s betting odds suddenly look pretty good.

ON THE OTHER HAND ...

Those who pray for Albo’s return might just think again, for these seven very good reasons, writes Joe Hildebrand.

1. Cost of living

Apart from the most extreme economic interventions by governments, in first world Liberal democracies the economy tends to do its own thing. And the economy in Australia has been doing very bad things, as it has around the world.

Albo might say it’s not his fault – and he’s right – but that hardly matters given he used to claim it was all Scott Morrison’s fault when it wasn’t his either.

In short, if times are bad it is always the government’s fault and the government always gets punished.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Picture: Brenton Edwards

2. Home truths

The biggest single stress point in the cost-of-living crisis has been the cost-of-housing crisis. In the old days we used to worry about young people having enough money to buy their first home. Now we’re worried about if they can even afford a home to rent.

The good news is this means Labor won’t touch negative gearing because suddenly investment property owners are the good guys.

3. Catch-22

Stage three of Labor’s electoral woes is that high levels of immigration are fuelling the housing crisis – after all, if people come to live here they need a place to, well, live.

But the government also needs skilled workers to come here and build the houses, so it is caught in a classic Catch-22.

Journalist Joe Hildebrand. Picture: Richard Dobson

4. Throwing money

Labor’s plan thus far to combat inflation has been to throw money at it: Free GPs, free childcare, free TAFE, power bill subsidies. You name it.

This provides a sugar hit of relief but risks inflation staying higher for longer and that means interest rates staying higher for longer.

That only affects mortgagees — but mortgagees have an annoying tendency to overwhelmingly live in marginal seats.

5. Hot seats

Speaking of seats, the Coalition lost a lot of them at the last election but Labor didn’t actually win that many.

The Teals destroyed the Liberal Party but the ALP only limped to 77 – a majority of two in the lower house.

It increased this number to 78 with the once-in-a-century Aston by-election win but that was once-in-a-century for a reason. Aston and a swag of other Victorian seats will fall back to Liberal this time.

6. Sandgropers

The 2022 election result can be politely defined as “asymmetric”. Labor won majority thanks to a swag of seats in Western Australia on the back of Mark McGowan’s popularity, a phenomenon rivalled only by Putin. Those big swings won’t be seen again.

7. The Vibe

While all of us believe that Albo is the best prime minister ever, there are some who inexplicably disagree. We have gone through a post-Covid economic nightmare and the spirit of optimism that drove the 2022 result has clearly evaporated.

Bad feelings mean bad results for the government of the day.

Originally published as James Morrow and Joe Hildebrand outline the case for Labor and the Coalition in upcoming poll