Inside story on what Gold Coasters see as the hot issues in the state poll

Pre-polling has begun in the state poll. Let’s go the booths, on the ground, and see who is winning

Let’s go to the pre-poll booths, to the heart of this election campaign on the Gold Coast. Who is winning in the marginal seat of Gaven, and what issues are deciding it?

Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon, the city’s only Labor MP, has a margin of 7.8 per cent. Most political analysts say if the ALP loses this seat, the LNP win government.

An exit poll conducted by the Bulletin of 100 voters suggests a swing against Ms Scanlon of 11.5 per cent – this compares to a statewide swing of 9.6 per cent.

The exit poll was on two days – your columnist was there for one of them – split evenly between Labor heartland at Nerang and more LNP-favoured Pacific Pines.

State election 2024 pre-poll. At the Nerang booth, Housing Minister and Gaven MP Meaghan Scanlon is in the background.

Another guide is Sportsbet. It has Labor in Gaven at $2.20 and the LNP at $1.50.

Speaking to voters along with LNP and Labor booth workers, this much is clear:

* No-one is calling the seat won or lost. Ms Scanlon says she is the “underdog”. Everyone would agree that statement is true.

* The biggest issue is “cost of living” and “affordable housing”. Older voters spoke about wanting their adult kids to some day be able to own a home.

* Labor’s 50 cent public transport fares are attractive to younger voters. They told us how much it is saving them each week.

* Some voters mentioned youth crime, and repeated the LNP’s slogan of “do adult time”. Big ticket items like Light Rail and the Coomera Connector were not raised – not even once.

* Neither are the leaders topical. An older woman did refer to Premier Steven Miles. Her comment was not printable. Opposition leader David Crisafulli was not mentioned.

* Older voters to a person were voting early to “avoid the rush” – and the majority refused pamphlets from all parties. They had not just made their minds up in the past week.

* Voters who had met Ms Scanlon wanted to vote for her because she was “hard working and constantly visible”. They said she “listened to them”.

A respected veteran LNP member, when asked by your columnist, was confident about Gaven.

Pre-polling State election 2024. LNP Gaven candidate Bianca Stone at the Nerang pre-polling booth in Gaven.

He was extremely positive about Ms Stone, a former Sunrise reporter, cutting through on the polling booth. Observing the Nerang booth, she is not shy about approaching voters.

“When the swing is on, it’s on,” the LNP member said.

Another experienced LNP campaigner, who is working the booths, accurately described the pre-poll as “slow”.

He cautioned against expectations that his party will get a uniform protest vote against Labor, and acknowledged Ms Scanlon’s strong personal vote – even though some of his colleagues rubbish the thought of it.

State election 2024 pre-poll. At Nerang, Labor's Meaghan Scanlon and LNP's Bianca Stone in the background waiting for voters.

LNP campaigners, the smarter strategists, know they are winning in the state’s north but vulnerable in Brisbane’s leafy inner city with the Greens.

They admit, that after taking a lead like the Broncos did against Penrith in the 2023 grand final, they have dropped the ball. They agree Labor has won the campaign, not the election.

So where does this leave Gaven? The numbers that count will be the homes doorknocked by Ms Scanlon. Because they are the votes Labor will not have lost when “the swing is on”.

Follow @PaulWestonGC