Gold Coast Election 2020: Sportsbet releases predictions for marginal seats Gaven, Currumbin
Bookies have released their odds for every Gold Coast seat in the state election - revealing a very different picture to a recent poll. SEE THE ODDS FOR ALL 11 GOLD COAST SEATS
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LABOR’S Meaghan Scanlon and the LNP’s Laura Gerber and Sam O’Connor will retain their marginal Gold Coast seats at this month’s state election, according to punters.
Most political analysts believe the LNP needs Ms Gerber to win in Currumbin and Mr O’Connor in Bonney, and to gain Gaven from Labor, to get across the line on October 31.
Sportsbet has listed Ms Scanlon at $1.85 to win her seat, just ahead of LNP opponent Kirsten Jackson at $1.95.
In Currumbin, Ms Gerber is at $1.30 compared to $3.25 for Labor’s Kaylee Campradt.
Mr O’Connor enjoys only a 1.69 per cent margin in Bonney but he has built up a huge personal profile in his first term of office. Sportsbet has him at $1.30 to retain the seat, well ahead of Labor’s Ash Borg at $3.25.
In the neighbouring electorate of Southport, longstanding LNP MP Rob Molhoek is at short odds ($1.05) to beat well-known local identity Susie Gallagher ($15).
The seat of Burleigh is expected to attract the most intense betting given Labor predicts a stronger voter response this time around after preselecting celebrity candidate Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew.
The former world champion surfer is at $2.75 to beat LNP frontbencher Michael Hart ($1.40).
Some Coast political observers have questioned the Sportsbet market given the latest YouGov Poll showed a two-party preferred swing of 3 per cent for both parties on the Gold Coast, with Labor increasing its vote by 6 per cent and the LNP up by 3 per cent.
If the predicted boost to Labor’s vote is correct for the Coast, it will bring LNP seats such as Coomera (3.47 per cent margin in 2017 election), Burleigh (4.85 per cent), Theodore (3.72 per cent) and Southport (7.24 per cent) into play.
“If those results are accurate, Currumbin and Burleigh, both those are at risk,” an independent political analyst said.
“The whole of the southern Gold Coast could be heading for Labor. That could then be interesting for the outcomes for light rail and heavy rail.
“On those figures, Kirsten Jackson will struggle to beat Meaghan Scanlon. With Rob Molhoek, Susie Gallagher could win, it just depends how hard she works.”
But experienced LNP insiders are dismissive of the poll given the sample covered about 2000 voters across southeast Queensland.
The poll, conducted last week, shows that Labor leads the LNP 52 per cent to 48 per cent across the state on a two-party preferred basis. This result reverses the outcome from a June poll showing a swing to Labor of 1 per cent.
Asked about Annastacia Palaszczuk’s performance, 57 per cent of respondents were satisfied with the Premier compared to 27 per cent dissatisfied, her best result since November 2015.
But an LNP insider believes the reaction from voters at “meets and greets” on the campaign indicates a swing is on for the Opposition.
“I cannot see how that result has completely reversed in four months with Palaszczuk. We’ve had the integrity scandals and the border closures,” the LNP insider said.
SPORTSBET ODDS FOR GOLD COAST SEATS
BONNEY
Sam O’Connor, LNP – $1.30
Ash Borg, Labor, $3.25
Amin Javanmard, Greens, $51
David Bark, United Australia Party, $61
BURLEIGH
Michael Hart, LNP, $1.40
Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew, Labor, $2.75
Rachel Mebberson, Greens, $51
Informed Medical Options Party (candidate unknown), $91
Ingrid Weber, Legalise Cannabis Queensland Party, $91
GAVEN
Meaghan Scanlon, Labor, $1.85
Kirsten Jackson, LNP, $1.95
Sally Spain, Greens, $21
Garry Beck, United Australia Party, $34
Sharon Sewell, One Nation, $91
Suzette Luyken, Legalise Cannabis Queensland Party, $91
THEODORE
Mark Boothman, LNP, $1.50
Tracey Bell, Labor, $2.50
John Woodlock, Greens, $24
Robert Marks, United Australia Party, $51
BROADWATER
David Crisafulli, LNP, $1.05
Labor (unknown candidate), $9
Informed Medical Options Party (unknown candidate), $91
United Australia Party (unknown candidate), $91
COOMERA
Michael Crandon, LNP, $1.25
Chris Johnson, Labor, $3.75
Tabita Wilkinson, One Nation, $34
Lissy Gavranich, Greens, $81
Darryl Prout, Animal Justice Party, $91
North Queensland Party (unknown candidate), $91
CURRUMBIN
Laura Gerber, LNP, $1.30
Kaylee Campradt, Labor, $3.25
Anna Palmer, United Australia Party, $24
Glen Wadsworth, One Nation, $34
Peter Burgoyne, Greens, $51
Informed Medical Options Party (unknown candidate), $91
MERMAID BEACH
Ray Stevens, LNP, $1.15
Carl Ungerer, Labor, $5.50
Suphakan Somsriruen, Civil Liberties and Motorists Party, $91
Deb Lynch, Legalise Cannabis Queensland Party, $91
MUDGEERABA
Ros Bates, LNP, $1.05
Labor (unknown candidate), $6.50
Scott Turner, Greens, $51
One Nation (unknown candidate), $51
Mark Pytellek, Civil Liberties and Motorists Party, $91
Brandon McMahon, United Australia Party, $91
SOUTHPORT
Rob Molhoek, LNP, $1.05
One Nation (unknown candidate), $7.50
Susie Gallagher, Labor, $15
SURFERS PARADISE
John-Paul Langbroek, LNP, $1.05
Labor (unknown candidate), $9.50
Nelson Quinn, Greens, $21
Arjay Martin, Independent, $51
Roger McKay, United Australia Party, $51
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