Gold Coast 2020 Election: Outlook for every State electorate as voting day approaches

There’s less than a month before the State Election – here’s everything you need to know about where your electorate stands. SEE THE FULL LIST

• Full list of Gold Coast 2020 election candidates
• Voters’ act leaves election candidates scrambling

WITH less than a month to go before the 2020 State election, the Gold Coast Bulletin has compiled the outlook for each city electorate.

See the full list below.

THEODORE

LNP 3.7%: Taking in much of the now-abolished seat of Albert, this northern Gold Coast seat has long held mixed success for the major parties.

Labor most recently held it for 11 years but has made little inroads since incumbent Mark Boothman won in the 2012 Newman landslide.

Mr Boothman is a hard-working backbencher but Labor fancies its chances of gaining another seat in the city’s north. Their candidate is early childhood educator Tracey Bell.

COOMERA

LNP 3.5%: This electorate has been held by the LNP’s Michael Crandon since

its 2009 inception.

Recent boundary changes sees Coomera becoming more marginal.

Labor has endorsed Chris Johnson, an Upper Coomera nurse who is part of the Gold Coast University Hospital’s acute mental health team.

Mr Crandon has been a strong advocate for the fastest-growing region in the state, regularly presenting petitions in the parliament seeking new infrastructure. Labor campaigners admit he is a tough opponent to beat.

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BROADWATER

LNP 18.0%: A Labor stronghold during the Beattie-Bligh era, Broadwater is now a different seat thanks to boundary realignments. Having shifted further north, it is solid conservative territory and is not viewed as winnable by Labor.

The LNP’s David Crisafulli is expected to easily retain the seat and is already being viewed as a potential Opposition Leader candidate in the event of a Labor win.

The ALP is yet to preselect a candidate.

BONNEY

LNP 1.7%: Another new seat, Bonney was narrowly won by the LNP’s Sam O’Connor in

2017.

While theoretically marginal and covering much of the former Broadwater seat, its voters swung hard to Labor during the 2000s when Peta-Kaye Croft represented the area.

Mr O’Connor, one of the state’s youngest MPs, has built up a strong profile in his first term, both on social media and in the community. His Labor opponent is Ash Borg, a legal and industrial officer.

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GAVEN

LABOR 0.7%: Labor’s sole Gold Coast seat and one of the most important in the State poll. Labor must hold it to retain government and the LNP need to win it to assume office.

Gaven has swung between both major parties consistently through its history.

Created at the 2001 election, the seat was held by Labor until 2009, excluding a brief period in 2006 when the then Nationals’ Alex Douglas briefly represented in between the April by-election following Robert Poole’s resignation and the general election that September.

He was re-elected as an LNP member in 2009 and re-elected in 2012.

Meaghan Scanlon. Photographer: Liam Kidston.

Labor won the seat back in 2017.

The ALP’s Meaghan Scanlon, the Assistant Tourism Minister, faces a tough contest against the LNP’s hard-working candidate, Kirsten Jackson.

One Nation is standing a candidate this time around with Sharon Sewell, and her preferences along with those from Sally Spain with The Greens could determine the outcome.

SOUTHPORT

LNP 7.2%: Despite being seen as Labor’s best chance of a Gold Coast seat through the ’90s

and 2000s, the LNP’s Rob Molhoek has held Southport since his landslide win by 18.2 per cent in 2012. This came after Labor holding it from 2001 to 2012 when former Gold Coast councillor Peter Lawlor was MP. An 11.5 per cent swing back to Labor in 2015 wasn’t enough to oust Mr Molhoek, and the creation of Bonney pushed Southport into parts of what

once made up Surfers Paradise, increasing the LNP margin even further from 3.2 per cent to

7.8 per cent. Labor has endorsed Susie Gallagher, who ran recently in the council poll and enjoys a strong public profile in the CBD. Mr Molhoek’s margin may take a hit.

SURFERS PARADISE

LNP 19.8%: Surfers Paradise is the safest LNP seat in Queensland, and has been conservative heartland since its creation in 1972.

In its 48 year history Labor has never come close to winning the seat, which was once the home of Premier Rob Borbidge.

LNP MP for Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek. Photo Scott Powick Newscorp

It was briefly held by Independent and former Gold Coast Mayor Lex Bell for a single term.

Incumbent MP John-Paul Langbroek has been in the seat since 2004 and should maintain his large margin on October 31 with Labor yet to endorse a candidate.

MERMAID BEACH

LNP 6.3%: Mermaid Beach is a relatively new seat, having been created in 2009.

However it is the successor seat to the fabled seat of south coast, held by the so-called “Minister for everything” Russ Hinze.

Across the various name changes, it is the only Gold Coast seat never to be lost by the conservatives in the past 60 years.

While Mermaid Beach has become more marginal in recent years, incumbent Ray Stevens still won the 2017 election with double the number of votes Labor received.

Expect the long-term MP to be re-elected without breaking a sweat for what could be his final term in parliament before retiring.

FORMER DIPLOMAT NAMED LABOR MERMAID BEACH CANDIDATE

MUDGEERABA

LNP 9.8%: Held by Ros Bates for the past 11 years Mudgeeraba is solidly in the LNP

column.

LNP Shadow health minister Ros Bates. PICTURE: MATT TAYLOR.

Labor held it for three terms during the Beattie-Bligh era but have posed little threat to Ms Bates, who has been a prominent local member and frontbencher during that period.

A safe hold given the ALP is yet to stand a candidate.

BURLEIGH

LNP 4.9%: Burleigh is expected to be one of the major battlegrounds for this year’s election,

with Labor endorsing former world champion surfer Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew.

The sitting MP is LNP frontbencher Michael Hart.

Labor held Burleigh for 11 years during the Beattie-Bligh era under popular local member Christine Smith.

Mr Hart has held on through recent elections, but until now Labor had been more focused on other seats like Gaven and Currumbin.

Key factors here will be the issue of light rail heading south to the airport and Mr Bartholomew’s strong Green credentials.

CURRUMBIN

LNP 3.3% (2017 MARGIN): A highly marginal seat, the most watchable outside of Gaven. Labor came close to winning Currumbin at the March by-election which was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The LNP’s Laura Gerber won Currumbin but will face a rematch with Labor’s Kaylee Campradt.

Laura Gerber (LNP). Picture Glenn Hampson

Kaylee Campradt, Labor's candidate for Currumbin.

Another Gold Coast seat that has swung between the major parties. Labor previously held it from 1992 until it lost to the Liberal Party’s Jann Stuckey in 2004 in the wake of controversies surrounding then-member Merri Rose.

Ms Gerber has built up a public profile and the border issue may play a role in her favour. But Ms Campradt has not stopped campaigning on the ground.

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