Shock Election Prediction: Expert Dr Paul Williams tips who will win key marginal Gold Coast seats Gaven, Currumbin

Poll analysts have revealed their shock predictions for the upcoming state election - including who will win the Gold Coast’s most marginal seats. SUBSCRIBE TO READ THE SPECIAL ELECTION SERIES

LABOR’S Meaghan Scanlon and the LNP’s Laura Gerber are both tipped to retain their marginal Gold Coast seats at the state election, according to poll analysts.

Political academics and campaign insiders also expect Labor to gain a third term of government at the October ballot.

But there is a proviso — Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk politically, cannot afford a second wave of coronavirus to creep into Queensland borders.

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Pre-poll voting at Nerang in 2017 — Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon talks to voter. She later won the marginal seat. Photo by Richard Gosling.

Dr Paul Williams, senior lecturer in humanities at Griffith University, said: “It’s potentially volatile. I think the northern end of the Gold Coast is potentially right for change. In the deep south it obviously becomes more conservative.”

EARLIER PREDICTIONS ON THE VOTE IN GAVEN

Before the pandemic worsened, both the Greens and One Nation were expected to play a major role in the survival of both Ms Scanlon in Gaven and Ms Gerber in Currumbin.

In the March by-election, Ms Gerber benefited from One Nation preferences. She won with 43.76 per cent of the primary vote, beating Labor’s Kaylee Campradt who secured 38.34 per cent of the vote.

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Mudgeeraba MP Ros Bates with Gaven LNP candidate Kirsten Jackson and leader Deb Frecklington.

In the 2017 poll, Ms Scanlon, then 24, obtained 43.07 per cent of the primary vote, compared to 46.11 per cent for then sitting member, the LNP’s Sid Cramp.

LNP DROPS DIRT SHEET ON LABOR IN GAVEN

She won on Green preferences from candidate Sally Spain who will again run in October. But One Nation is standing a candidate this time. Her main rival is hardworking LNP candidate Kirsten Jackson.

“One Nation is wasting its time,” Dr Williams said.

“In times of crisis you see marginal parties, fringe parties, their vote collapses.

“Now we saw the Greens vote actually climb at the beginning of the pandemic but it seems to be coming down, so expectedly the Greens are suffering from big picture politics where people go back to the major parties in times of crisis and the minor parties tend to be locked out of the discourse.”

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Labor strategists believe Ms Scanlon will survive and many Coast LNP insiders concede that is likely. But the party remains confident about retaining Currumbin where Ms Gerber faces a strong candidate in Labor’s Kaylee Campradt.

Laura Gerber (centre) with Ros Bates (left) and Deb Frecklington (right) after winning Currumbin.

“Laura Gerber is out there knocking on doors. She is seeing people. She is seen as amicable and approachable, the oldies are warming to her,” an LNP insider said.

Dr Williams believes Ms Scanlon should approach the campaign with some confidence.

“Labor would be panicked about Gaven. But Labor has obviously held that seat before, it’s not like a one-off that they are holding it. There are obviously strong pockets of Labor voters in that seat.

“There’s no evidence on the ground (that Labor will lose) and again all things being equal if it was a tired Labor government after two terms looking for a third term and you had an charismatic Opposition leader in (Deb) Frecklington, then yes you they would be worried, they hold by less than one per cent. But these are not normal circumstances.”

HOW COVID HAS CHANGED THE CAMPAIGN IN CURRUMBIN

He believes Ms Gerber should similarly be confident, but there remains a wildcard in her campaign. LNP strategists maintain Ms Frecklington is popular in Currumbin.

“Labor’s not going to win Currumbin in a general election if it couldn’t in a by-election,” Dr Williams said.

ALP candidate Kaylee Campradt out speaking with voters during the by-election campaign. (AAP Image/Glenn Hunt)

“That will stay in LNP hands. Laura Gerber has had some big sound bytes. She seems to be off to a good start, a competent performer.

“(Retired Currumbin MP) Jann Stuckey might be a thorn in their side. She would still have a loyal following on the Coast. If she makes some comments during the campaign, if she sponsors a third party independent and then spruiks for that independent and the vote peels off Laura Gerber and they preference Labor over the LNP — but that’s problematic.”

Dr Williams also sees COVID-19 as problematic because it is so unpredictable.

The same voters who a month ago wanted the Queensland-NSW border open became silent once a second wave started in Victoria, he said. If that wave hits Queensland, they will turn on Labor.

ROUND TWO IN THE BATTLE FOR CURRUMBIN

“So it’s a no-win situation for Palaszczuk, unfortunately for her. COVID clouds the crystal ball. We cannot really see what happens because the election is 100 days away.

“If there is second wave it will probably kill off the Palaszczuk Government.”