Paul Weston: The shock poll results which explain why the LNP are so confident of winning

Senior LNP figures are privately talking up winning the next State poll. And they have a reason for thinking they can topple Labor’s only Gold Coast MP in the process.

SENIOR LNP figures are privately talking up winning the next State poll. On the Gold Coast, they predict Labor’s only MP, Meaghan Scanlon in Gaven, will be beaten.

One of the reasons for the confidence is research. Results from this year’s federal poll have been transferred booth by booth to State seats.

“Gaven is 61.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. It becomes a safe LNP seat,” a party insider says.

Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon at pre-poll during the last campaign. Picture: Richard Gosling.

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At the 2017 election, Ms Scanlon beat sitting LNP MP Sid Cramp on a two-party preferred basis by 378 votes. Her margin is 3.5 per cent. The Greens got Labor across the line.

To win government, the Opposition must win back Gaven. To remain in government, Labor, projected to lose seats in the regions, must retain Gaven and win Currumbin.

In Gaven, Labor is strong in Pacific Pines and Nerang. Not so in Carrara or Worongary.

Federal results in May show Labor’s vote at the two booths in Pacific Pines was down by four to six per cent. The vote of the LNP’s Fadden MP Stuart Robert was steady.

Labor insiders will caution against making comparisons — in a federal poll voters tend to focus on taxation issues and in the State turn their eyes to services.

They acknowledge Bill Shorten’s tax policy sucked, and argue the Palaszczuk Government is busy upgrading the M1, planning the M2 and building schools and police stations in the north.

Meaghan Scanlon with her mother Margaret Scanlon, brother Callum, 21, and supporters at her election night party at Parkwood. Picture: Mike Batterham.

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Ms Scanlon won Pacific Pines. Her primary vote was more than 48 per cent compared to 41 per cent for the LNP’s Sid Cramp.

She also won Nerang. The LNP always win wealthier Carrara and Emerald Lakes.

What can be made of looking at the voting patterns in Nerang for the federal and state polls?

On the number of votes in the federal poll, the LNP’s Angie Bell won three of the four Nerang booths for the seat of Moncrieff. But the LNP had a swing against it, ranging from about 3 per cent to about 14 per cent.

Labor suffered a swing of about three to six per cent. So both major parties copped a protest vote.

In the 2017 State campaign, Ms Scanlon was the winner, averaging as high as 48 per cent of the vote on first preferences. She only lost the Earle Haven booth where independent retirees rarely vote Labor.

LNP frontbencher Ros Bates is a tough and proven campaign winner, and will send the party’s highly respected candidate Kirsten Jackson into enemy territory of Nerang to win across disillusioned Labor voters in the lead up to next October’s poll.

Mudgeeraba MP Ros Bates with Gaven LNP candidate Kirsten Jackson and leader Deb Frecklington.

But the LNP’s biggest enemy could be itself, being too confident of toppling Ms Scanlon, who like the Opposition’s young Sam O’Connor has worked overtime to build a personal following.

Flashback to the last State poll when Labor staff were packing their desks after losing the first two weeks of the campaign, only for the party’s fortunes to change quickly.

A Labor strategist said: “We’ve noticed they’ve been cocky in the way they’ve been acting and posturing in the parliament as if they’ve already won. We’re more than comfortable in that role of the underdog. We’re the party for the worker, that’s the bottom line.”