Australian Federal election 2019: New poll reveals voter support in super marginal Gold Coast seat

An exclusive new poll has revealed the super marginal Gold Coast seat of Forde is going down to the wire, risking Bill Shorten’s chances of making it to The Lodge. Find out exactly where the candidates stand.

THE fight for the northern marginal seat of Forde — a must-win for Labor to secure government — is a cliffhanger and impossible to call.

An exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll for the Gold Coast Bulletin reveals the two party preferred vote is 50 per cent for the LNP and 50 per cent for Labor.

“This suggests the LNP have been able to limit the swing in Forde to less than one per cent,” a YouGov Galaxy pollster said.

LNP MP Bert van Manen has a margin of 0.6 per cent in the electorate which includes Coomera north of the river to Beenleigh and Logan.

YouGov Galaxy pollsters said primary support for Mr van Manen was 42 per cent, slightly above 41 per cent at the 2016 poll.

Labor’s Des Hardman, a senior radiographer at the Logan Hospital, has also improved his vote from last time around — up from 37.6 per cent to 41 per cent.

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Forde Federal electorate candidate Bert van Manen at the Beenleigh polling booth. Picture: Jerad Williams

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Five per cent of voters surveyed remained uncommitted. Their vote most likely will determine the result. The major parties, aware of this, continued with a last minute blitz today with funding announcements.

But the polling confirms the key player to emerge in the Coast’s biggest political battleground is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

The vote for Clive Palmer’s party in Forde appears to have collapsed. In the 2013 poll, the then Palmer United Party polled 12.45 per cent. One Nation did not stand a candidate.

Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party, on this latest poll, is getting 4 per cent of the vote.

This is much lower than other Queensland marginals like the northern Brisbane seat of Dickson (9 per cent), Flynn which includes Gladstone and west to Emerald (11 per cent) and Herbert (9 per cent) in north Queensland.

One Nation is tracking at 7 per cent in Forde.

Labor Party insiders expect the preferences from One Nation will be much stronger for the ALP than the Coalition.

While the majority of UAP preferences are likely to help Mr van Manen, a leakage of up to 20 per cent of those conservative voters to Labor could be a disaster for the LNP overall result.

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Labor candidate Des Hardman speaks with teacher Breanna Grimshaw on the campaign trail. Picture: Tim Marsden

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The stronger One Nation vote in Forde is not unexpected. The electorate includes Beenleigh and Logan, and battlers could be lodging a protest vote against the major parties.

Some of the results contrast with the polling in other key Queensland marginal seats.

In the northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, One Nation with 3 per cent of the vote is behind UAP (9 per cent). Similarly, in Flynn and Herbert, Pauline Hanson’s party trails by 3 to 4 per cent.

Mr Hardman will depend largely on the preferences of the Greens if he is to get across the line.

In Forde, support for the Greens on this polling is 5 per cent. This compares to 6.4 per cent in 2016 when the party managed to improve its vote by more than two per cent.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten pictured in Sydney this morning. Picture: Kym Smith

The polling was conducted exclusively for News Corp on Monday and Tuesday, and sought the opinions of 567 voters in Forde.

A YouGov Galaxy pollster told the Bulletin: “Three of these seats in this poll are currently held by the LNP and one by Labor. If Labor are to form government after this election they would be expected to pick up some of these LNP seats and successfully retain Herbert.

“However, the poll suggests the LNP are digging in, in the seats they currently hold and could wrest back Herbert from the Labor Party.

“Over the four electorates a clear pattern emerges. Primary support for the Labor Party is typically no higher than in 2016 when they won just 8 seats in Queensland.

“With the preferences of the minor parties at this election likely to be more favourable to the LNP than they were in 2016 it is hard to see how Labor will be able to finish second on the primary vote and overtake the LNP after preferences.

“For this reason Labor could fall short of picking up a swag of seats in Queensland that could have guaranteed Bill Shorten the keys to the Lodge.”