The Early Oil: Herald Sun racing writer Matt Stewart gives his extended preview of Saturday’s Flemington meeting
HERALD Sun racing writer Matt Stewart previews the nine-race Flemington card and points punters in the direction of De Little Engine in the seventh race as his best.
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HERALD Sun racing writer Matt Stewart previews the nine-race Flemington card and points punters in the direction of De Little Engine in the seventh race as his best.
HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS
Race 1: Pat Hyland Plate (1400m)
LOOKS a thin race with three key chances, with an eye on betting with well-bred debutante ALL OUT OF LOVE (10). SEBRING DREAM (12) has the right draw/distance to go one better after eye-catching debut up the straight behind impressive winner I Am A Star. JAWS OF STEEL (1) was clobbered at the start at Randwick last start and had been impressive at Mornington prior to that. MONTOYA’S SECRET (13) got going late in I Am A Star race on debut and is a likely improver. All Out Of Love wasn’t pushed out to win a recent Wodonga trial.
SUGGESTED BET: Nil.
Race 2: National Hall Of Fame Handicap (1200m)
Safest way to go might be REEMAH (1) is it gets out to $3.80 or more. Settled pretty close in a busy race first-up and held ground late. Reckon she is best when able to sit back and swoop and drawn to get nice room down the middle. PAYROLL (2) resumes after being scratched a week ago. Some of her better runs behind high class rivals last prep would have her right in the thick of things and her trainer is having a good run. OUR VIDIA is flying but has to run out a strong 1200m. MIHALIC resumes and has ability.
SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No 1.
Race 3: Might And Power Handicap (2000m)
YOU could do worse than have a dabble at EXTRA ZERO (1) each-way at the bog odds. Comes off a sound debut over the hurdles and sometimes jumping can freshen up these talented old horses. Has terrific record Flemington/2000m. Massive chance also at odds to ARALDO JUNIOR (9) who ran on well behind TURNITAROUND (7) at Warrnambool. Wet track suited Turnitaround that day and Araldo Junior can turn the tables. Araldo’s stablemate EXTRA NOBLE (11) was also solid in same race. Chances to DOUMARAN (10), and SECOND BULLET (6).
SUGGESTED BET: Each-way Nos 1 and 9.
Race 4: Carbine Club Handicap (1600m)
START almost at the bottom and work your way up. Reckon the bog took the sting out of the finish of hotpot GRAND DREAMER (13) at the bool. Massive on firm ground at Sandown before that. Big track suits. Back in distance but will have been freshened. SANTA ROCKS (14) is typically well-bred Hawkes runner who has been searching for ground in Sydney. The rest are a pretty even/average bunch. MR PAGO (11) worried subsequent city winner Show A Star out of it when breathed down his neck at Geelong two starts back and weakened after tough on-pace run last start.
SUGGESTED BET: The win No 13.
Race 5: Les Carylon Handicap (1600m)
WIDE open but reckon Irish enforcer John Allen can spark improvement in UN DE SCEAUX (3), who was caught in wrong part of the track at vital stage last start. Drawn to get a nice run and can turn the tables on SHOCKAHOLIC (2), ALTANTIC CITY (7) etc from that race. Key form might be race won by Unbreakable at Caulfield recently (he should have won at next start but went too soon). LOYALTY MAN (1) ran very solidly that day and claim/good barrier read well.
SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No 3.
Race 6: Neville Begg Handicap (1800m)
Could the moon and stars finally be aligned for AMARELA (7). Much depends on luck from a wide gate — not always a disadvantage at Flemington. She was posted two starts back and really worked well to the line last start. Takes on the boys but hasn’t carried as little as 54kg for a while. Suspect this trip perfect. Interesting distance for in-form WRITTEN (3) from equally in-form Kent stable. Mertens claim a plus and just needs to be rated on-pace. EVERY FAITH (4) raced like a mare now looking for ground last start and Williams import SIR PROSPECTOR (10) wouldn’t have to improve much on first run here to go close.
SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No 7.
Race 7: Andrew Ramsden Stakes (3200m)
The 59.5kg is some worry but everything else about DE LITTLE ENGINE (3) says YES! The sense of timing is irresistible. Love the way he found the line last start. Melham is a very “kind’’ rider and will help the horse carry the weight. MY BANTRY BAY (12) is a big, loose-gong import who should run the trip right out. MASTER ZEPHYR (6) found himself in the wrong part of the track in the Bool Cup and will be competitive. Chances also to SWACADELIC (1), UNGRATEFUL ELLEN (8) and THE BANDIT (15).
SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No 3.
Race 8: Hilton Nicholas Straight Six (1200m)
WHAT a race, a poor man’s Newmarket, Barriers and best lane will be crucial, with key chances DURENDAL (2) and MY POPPETTE (16) drawn the outside rail. Safest play might be to stick with those drawn the middle — DEMONSTRATE (19) and ODYSSEEY MOON (18). You could make a case for more than a dozen of them. Either take the field in the quaddie or hone in on what you perceive as best way home.
SUGGESTED BET: Back what you like then go see a shrink because you are a compulsive gambler.
Race 9: Better Loosen Up Handicap (1400m)
Hmmm, not much easier to sift through than the previous race. Big field means they will inevitably run along which might have ZEBRINZ (7) and GARUD (8) — who has a habit of running well fresh — running over the top. SISTINE DEMON (4) is flying again and doesn’t mind it tough up on pace. ENQUARE (9) was poor last start but much better than that. Best roughie is SIR BERUS (18).
SUGGESTED BET: Each-way Nos 7 and 8.
Best Bet
DE LITTLE ENGINE (Race 7, No 3)
Early Quaddie
1,2,3,4/1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11/13,14/1,2,3,7
Value Bet
AMARELA (Race 6, No 7)
Quaddie
3,4,7,10/3,6,12/2,3,9,16,27,18,19/4,7,8,9,18
Originally published as The Early Oil: Herald Sun racing writer Matt Stewart gives his extended preview of Saturday’s Flemington meeting
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