The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his take on Ballarat Cup Day
HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley previews the final meeting of the 2015 spring carnival with the running of the Ballarat Cup.
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HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley previews the final meeting of the 2015 spring carnival with the running of the Ballarat Cup.
Prince Of Penzance and homegrown jockey Michelle Payne will be reunited again when the Melbourne Cup-winning stayer parades before the main event. Only two weeks ago hundreds turned out in the middle of the city to pay tribute to the winning combination, along with local trainer Darren Weir.
On the back of their amazing Flemington success, the Ballarat Race Club is expecting a breakout attendance for the stand-alone Saturday meeting.
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RACE 1
Local maestro Darren Weir has two great chances in two horses by Rakti to start his home town Cup Day with a win. PENDLES (6) was held up for a run before finishing on in good style for first-up third at Ballarat. Has had four starts at Ballarat for two wins and a second and is also two from two second-up including easy win this track and distance last campaign. OSTERIA (8) is racing consistently. Hasn’t started since finishing second to talented galloper Villopoto at Geelong. He’s trialled well recently. Former Sydney galloper JUDGES (2) won impressively at his debut for Daniel Bowman at Ararat defeating Pendles. BERLUTTI (4) has the talent to win this. COLOUR OF THE WIND (10) was outclassed at Flemington but won easily this track and distance three starts ago in February.
Suggested bet: Pendles each-way.
RACE 2
ESTAMINET (9) followed win here with another easy win at Kyneton when she led throughout. LITEN PRINCESA (4) made it four wins from nine starts when got out in closing stages after being held-up to win at Moonee Valley last start. South Australian visitor SCRATCHY LASS (3) suffered her first loss at her fifth start when beaten in a photo by smart galloper Lucky Symbol last start at Morphettville. FAST APPROACHING (10) was a Caulfield winner last campaign. Darren Weir’s LONHTIME (7) finished second to Judges at Ararat last start. NORTHERN SAINT (6) ran on strongly last start at Geelong in strong race after being held up.
Suggested bet: Estaminet the win.
RACE 3
Former German stayer LIPS AREIOS (11) broke his maiden status at his Australian debut with an easy win in a Mornington Maiden. Up in grade but might have more potential than his rivals. TRIPLE GOLD (9) ran on well for third at Cranbourne last start. Finished sixth in the SA Derby last campaign so also looks more talented his rivals. PURPLE SMILE (2) worked forward and tired at Moonee Valley last start. Go on Caulfield placing before that. Tony McEvoy has brought the consistent GRAND ARMADA (8) across from Adelaide and he had a tough run last start when second in Adelaide. HONEY STEEL’S GOLD (6) is better than recent form suggests.
Suggested bet: Lips Areios the win.
RACE 4
Darren Weir may again hold the key with two top chances in KRACKEN (2) and BROADWAY AND FIRST (8). Kracken wasn’t suited by wet track last start at Flemington. Go on his fast finishing unlucky fifth at Sale before that. BROADWAY AND FIRST (8) battled on nicely fourth at Moonee Valley in strong race last start. ORVASSA (15) hasn’t had much luck in recent starts. Worked home well for fifth at Sandown last Saturday behind Indarra, Tony McEvoy’s METIER (7) pulled up lame at her last start. Showed talent at her first two starts including third in Elvstroem Classic at Swan Hill.
Suggested bet: Kracken each-way.
RACE 5
Gai Waterhouse’s well bred two-year-old colt PREFERITO (6) showed talent in recent Randwick trial. Has the advantage of having been educated to run in the Clockwise direction. The Hawkes team’s Sebring filly BRING ME THE BLING (8) won a clockwise trial here as did CLARO EL BANCO (1) who didn’t do much at his debut. HELLMUTH (4) and ONE BLINK (5) also showed talent in clockwise trial at Ballarat. Another interesting runner is the Sydney filly BRING THE PEACE (9) who has shown talent in two trials.
Suggested bet: Preferito the win.
RACE 6
Weir’s SHIKARPOUR (6) was only beaten by promising galloper Plot The Course at Bendigo last start and he’s run well twice since at Flemington and at Sandown. One start here for a win. SHOW A STAR (7) has drawn out but will work across and should take up the running. Talented galloper who was run down by two smart horses when he resumed at Geelong a month ago. Ex Kiwi BAJOUR (8) was impressive winning his first start for Danny O’Brien at Geelong. DARRAGH (9) disappointed in the Hamilton Cup but his previous form reads well for this. Well bred LUCQUES (11) showed he could be in for his best campaign with a strong first-up win at Seymour.
Suggested bet: Shikarpour each-way.
RACE 7
WILD RAIN (11) won the inside section of her last start comfortably at Flemington but on the outside rail The Quarterback managed to grab her. She’s racing in great fashion. Two smart horses resume in HUSSON EAGLE (1) and ILLUSTRIOUS LAD (3). Both go well fresh and both trialled nicely at Cranbourne recently. NORDIC EMPIRE (2) also won his trial at Cranbourne and he resumes racing as a gelding. MAGNETTE (16) was unlucky last start when placed behind two promising horses at Moonee Valley.
Suggested bet: Wild Rain each-way.
RACE 8
UNGRATEFUL ELLEN (16) has been racing well without a lot of luck. Fought on well when fourth in the Matriarch Stakes at Flemington after having had a tough run. She finished second to Winx in the Queensland Oaks during the winter. Weir has two good chances in AKZAR (5) and TOOLEYBUC KID (8), who both have been set for this. Akzar looked one run off peaking when close-up in the Kyneton Cup last start. TOOLEYBUC KID (8) ran on for fifth in strong Bendigo Cup last start. Sydneysider PRINCE CHERI (3) is an above average talent. INDEX LINKED (2) is much better than Mackinnon Stakes failure suggests. Stablemate JUNOOB (1) also has claims.
Suggested bet: Ungrateful Ellen each-way.
RACE 9
Darren Weir’s PROFIT SHARE (10) can find trouble but possesses above average. Can boast a win over his stablemate Stratum Star. Had little luck last start when third at Ararat when blocked for a run. VOLCANIC ASH (17) didn’t handle firm surface at Kyneton when he resumed. Much better than that and loves it wet. ORION (4) resumed with good second at Bendigo last start to Mighty Like. DURENDAL (2) and FLOW METER (3) both run well at Flemington behind Malaguerra in different races.
Suggested bet: Profit Share the win.
RACE 10
Forget VILLOPOTO (14) went round at Flemington last start as he was vetted before the race and then was eased with 400m to go. Previous start when fifth to Fast ‘N’ Rocking and The Quarterback reads well at Caulfeld, GALLANT HARMONY (13) with only 51 kilos will go forward and take catching. MANDLA (9) ran well at Flemington during the carnival. WEINHOLT (11) has found form again. If they are swooping WHISTLE BABY (12) will come into play. RED BOMBER (1) is top class sprinter resuming.
Suggested bet: Villopoto each-way.
Originally published as The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his take on Ballarat Cup Day
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