The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his extended preview of Saturday’s Flemington meeting

HERALD Sun’s leading form analyst Michael Manley says weight relief should make Royal Rapture extremely hard to beat in the fourth race.

HERALD Sun’s leading form analyst Michael Manley says weight relief should make Royal Rapture extremely hard to beat in the fourth race at Flemington.

Manley has nominated the Darren Weir-trained runner as his best bet on the nine-race card.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

SPORTSMAN PREVIEW: FLEMINGTON

BEAT THE BOOKIE VALUE BETS

Race 1: VRC member Paul Tamburro (2000m)

YULONG BABY (2) was disappointing chasing home SAVANNAH MOON (4) and KHUTULUN (1) last start here at Flemington when fourth behind that pair. She carried a big weight of 58.5kg on that occasion and drops four kilos after three kilos claim for Ben Allen. She’s better than that and worth another chance. Savannah Moon was strong holding off Khutulun who franked that form with Caulfield win last Saturday. AZ GIVEN (3) was strong defeating Savannah Moon when she led throughout to win at Moonee Valley 24 days ago. CINNAMON CARTER (5) has returned to form on the Pakenham Synthetic winning two there unlucky third also there last Sunday.

Suggested bet: Yulong Baby each-way.

Race 2: VRC member John Gubbins (1400m)

Sydney visitor DECORATED SOLDIER (5) was entitled to drop off after having had a tough run but his best work was in the closing 100m when fourth behind smart galloper Tango Rain at Canterbury two weeks ago. 1400m and Flemington should suit. LOCH OIR (2) was given a perfect ride by Craig Williams when narrow winner this track and distance last start over ODEON (6) who finished off nicely. BACK TO THE BOWLER (4) fought on well for third in the same race. Team Hayes has ZUNBAQA (3) who won easily by four lengths at Morphettville Parks last start leading throughout. BENNY GOES BERSERK (7) is looking for 1400m after running on strongly for fourth behind Awake In Grinzing at Sandown last start. LOS CABOS (10) finished second in the same race. BROOKWATER (8) was impressive winning last start.

Suggested bet: Decorated Soldier each-way.

Race 3: VRC member Wendy Johnson (2000m)

PIN YOUR HOPES (3) has been the star of winter racing having completed a hat-trick of wins at Flemington last start. If anything he seems to be getting better with each start. Dominated the race from start to finish last time leading throughout and sprinting away over the last 200m. Loves the wet. Well credentialed import ALMANDIN (1) gave away a huge start at his first Australian run and his first for two years but charged home out wide for sixth behind Onpicalo over 1600m at Moonee Valley. Obviously 2000m and Flemington will suit better. Darren Weir’s KILLARNEY KID (2) has been a model of consistency with five wins and two placings from his past seven starts. Also he’s a last-start Flemington winner. The other four starters each have claims led by GOLDEN MANE (5).

Suggested bet: Pin Your Hopes the win.

Michael Dee and Royal Rapture combine to salute at Flemington last month. Picture: Getty Images

Race 4: VRC member Allen Aylett (1700m)

ROYAL RAPTURE (4) has won two of his past three starts both at Flemington. He was impressive holding off the smart Jerilderie Letter over 1600m here last start carrying 57.5kg. Again Mick Dee will ride and his 1.5kg claim will see him carry 53.5kg. LORD DURANTE (7) finished fourth in the same race basically holding his position throughout. He drops 5 kilos on that run. Darren Weir has freshened the consistent FALAGO (5) up. He’s always a chance in a race of this nature. PETROLOGY (2) flew home for second in the Winter Championship final.

Suggested bet: Royal Rapture the win.

Race 5: VRC member Daniel Maher (1400m)

Main focus will be on Team Hayes’ PILOT D’ESSAI (11). The former French galloper created a big impression at his only Australian start when he sat wide and ran away from his rivals to win over 1400m at Bendigo in March. Performed well in recent Pakenham Synthetic jump-out and has been entered for the Cox Plate. ULMANN (6) is getting better with each start for Darren Weir. He sprinted past DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (5) to win impressively at Caulfield last start. Duke Of Brunswick is racing well but still can over-race at times. MAJESTIC DUKE (12) worked hard in the same race last start when he led and effort was sound to finish fourth. GRACIOUS PROSPECT (9) usually races well this track and distance.

Suggested bet: Pilot D’Essai the win.

Race 6: Jockey Celebration Day

GUN CASE (8) is flying for Darren Weir with wins at his past three starts on wet tracks. Last start Moonee Valley all the way win was impressive as he was under high pressure early but still won comfortable. FAST CASH (10) has a lot of talent and usually sprints well fresh. He’s drawn out which suits his style of racing and also has the services of Damien Oliver. TREVINDER (4) finished off strongly in the Sir John Monash Stakes which reads well for this. ROUGH JUSTICE (3) loves this track and distance. Another Weir runner PROFIT SHARE (5) is a smart type resuming and stablemate OLIVIER (6) will find this easier than last start last in the Sir John Monash Stakes. Same for RUNSATI (14) who was outclassed in the same race. Go on his second behind Ruettiger before that over 1100m here. Smart O’MALLEY (12) resumes from 18 months off.

Suggested bet: Gun Case each-way.

Smart Volatility (centre) announces himself with victory in Grafton’s famous Ramornie Handicap. Picture: Jason O'Brien

Race 7: Aurie’s Star Handicap (1200m)

Huge effort by former well-performed Hong Kong sprinter SMART VOLATILITY (2) to win the Ramornie Handicap at his second Australian start. He was wide throughout on the speed and then was able to narrowly hold off a challenge from smart sprinter Big Money. Another former Honkers galloper DIBAYANI (1) was extremely impressive winning a jump-out at Pakenham Synthetic. David Hayes is going to keep him to races less than 1600m. RUETTIGER (9) is racing consistently down the straight with a third and a win at his past two runs. MIGHTY LIKE (4) finished off strongly to win this track and distance last start. TASHBEEH (5) is an underrated galloper who could run a big race fresh. MANAGERESS (6) is a classy mare resuming.

Suggested bet: Smart Volatility each-way.

Race 8: VRC member John Lee (1400m)

MY SISTER LIL (2) showed she was ready to win with her unlucky eighth, beaten 2.3 lengths at Caulfield last Saturday over 1200m. Last preparation she finished fourth beaten less than a half a length behind Azkadellia in the Group 3 Mannerism Stakes at Caulfield. MISS SOFTHANDS (1) finished off strongly out wide for encouraging first-up fifth behind Beirut. KANIANA (10) also ran on strongly in the same race for seventh in the same race. LAHQA (3) resumes after 49 days off. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race. STYLEMAKER (12) and JUST STELLAR (13) quineallaed a fillies race this track and distance last start but take on older mares in this.

Suggested bet: My Sister Lil each-way.

Race 9: VRC member Keli Sponner (1200m)

BADAJOZ (7) drew in last start down the straight and Craig Williams spent the early part of the race angling him to the middle of the track. Finished off strongly with his 60 kilos behind Astro Castro. Drops four kilos on that run and barrier 11 will suit better. STRONG HAND (8) loves it wet. Didn’t get going over summer on firmer tracks but form last winter was excellent. Stablemate CAMDUS (11) tired after sitting wide over 1400m at Caulfield last start after being drawn out. Much better than that. TYRANNIZE (17) was run down by first starter Astro Castro when he looked likely winner over 1100m here last start in a return to form. HEZA RIPPER (3) is racing well and BERLUTTI (1) has a touch of class.

Suggested bet: Badajoz each-way.

Originally published as The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his extended preview of Saturday’s Flemington meeting