Raceday focus: Best bets, betting analysis for Flemington

Defiant Dancer’s winning form is too good to ignore for Herald Sun tipster Gilbert Gardiner, while form analyst Stephen Brassel has saved his best for last.

Defiant Dancer has been supported to win at headquarters. Picture: Getty Images

Astute form analyst Stephen Brassel runs the rule over the tricky nine-race card at Flemington on Saturday. Check out what Brass likes, with his best bet and value bet to arrive in the final two races. Herald Sun racing writer Gilbert Gardiner and TAB’s punting guru Nick Quinn also weigh in with their top picks for the meeting.

GIL’S GOOD THINGS

BEST BET

SENSATIONALISATION (R3, No.3 — $3)

Racecaller Matt Hill is going to have to be at the top of his game to get the name out properly but the Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr-trained filly should be too precocious for this field.

NEXT BEST

SKIDDAW (R4, No.4 — $3.70)

Backing Damian Lane more than the horse here. Top jockey in incredible touch right now and this looks a very winnable race for both him and Skiddaw.

DEFIANT DANCER (R7, No.8 — $3.40)

In-form gelding capable of making it four on the trot after a nice last-start win at Pakenham. Wins over 1400m previously maps well for the 1200m trip at Flemington.

Damian Lane is in great form and has plenty of good chances at Flemington. Picture: AAP

VALUE BET

VINLAND (R8, No.2 — $7.50)

Track and trip specialist making debut for Lindsey Smith stable. Anywhere near best should be very hard to beat.

CAUSEWAY GIRL (R9, No.7 — $16)

Long time (March 2019) since being first past the post but drops in grade sharply here and should enjoy some weight relief. Should be around the mark.

THE JOCKEY

DAMIEN OLIVER

Wins spaced recently but the champion jockey has a strong book of rides to make an impact at Flemington — SENSATIONALISATION (R3, No.3 — $3), THINK ‘N’ FLY (R4, No.6 — $9), BANGER (R5, No.13 — $16), NIGHT WITCHES (R6, No.14 — $15), CAN’T BE DONE (R7, No.10 — $5) and CHINA AFFAIR (R9, No.14 — $13).

BRASSEL’S BEST

BEST BET

OVERKILL (Race 9, No.4)

VALUE BET

VINLAND (Race 8, No.2)

EARLY QUADDIE

3, 5, 6, 7/3, 6, 7, 11/1, 4, 7, 8/6, 8, 10, 11
$100 flexi = 39%

BIG6

1, 4, 7, 8/6, 8, 10, 11/2, 4, 7, 11/6, 8, 10/2, 10, 13/4, 13, 14

$100 flexi = 5.78%

Re Edit must be included in the first leg of the quaddie. Picture: Getty Images

QUADZILLA WITH GILBERT GARDINER

LEG 1: RACE 6

RE EDIT (2) was huge winning at The Valley last start, as was OCEAN’S THIRTEEN (4). LUNAKORN (10) is the one who could really shake up the race and relishes the big track. Not going to allow the combination of Damien Oliver and James Cummings knock us out in the first leg, so NIGHT WITCHES (14) gets in.

1st leg: 2, 4, 10, 14.

LEG 2: RACE 7

EXCESS FUNDS (1) and RIDING THE WAVE (6) look to be the biggest dangers to favourite DEFIANT DANCER (8), who gets in light with the claim of Campbell Rawiller as the Phillip Stokes-trained gelding chases a fourth win in succession.

2nd leg: 1, 6, 8.

LEG 3: RACE 8

TITAN BLINDERS (10) has been a model of consistency and another win here would book his flight to the Gold Coast for Magic Millions race day. Gets out in front and makes own luck. Hardest to beat. VINLAND (2) the possible bogey, proven track and trip and first-up for Lindsey Smith, which tends to be a recipe for success for mature gallopers.

3rd leg: 2, 10.

LEG 4: RACE 9

OVERKILL (4) was fancied at The Valley last start but punctured after leading into the straight. Forgive? CAUSEWAY GIRL (7) goes well fresh and loves the short trips. HUMZZ (9) and SWORD OF MERCY (13) not without chances.

4th leg: 4, 7, 9, 13.

$100 flexi for 104.16 per cent

SKINNY QUADDIE

Take three in the first leg, RE EDIT (2), OCEAN‘S THIRTEEN (4) and LUNAKORN (10). In the second leg, take DEFIANT DANCER (8) one out. Then in the third, take VINLAND (2) and TITAN BLINDERS (10). Come home with OVERKILL (4) and SWORD OF MERCY (13).

1st leg: 2, 4, 10.

2nd leg: 8.

3rd leg: 2, 10.

4th leg: 4, 13.

$100 flexi for 833.33 per cent

Vinland will be sporting new colours when he has his first start for new trainer Lindsey Smith on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

GIL’S FOUR-PLAY $50 BETTING STRATEGY

FLEMINGTON

RACE 1

$50 win PRINCESS JENNI (1) at $4.60

Big weight to contend with but she gets it for being the best horse in the field by some margin. Sat wide in the Pakenham Cup and could not finish off. Drawn barrier two at Flemington should see her get all the favours in transit and be strong at the finish under Jye McNeil. Form around international Pondus, Nonconformist, Mystic Journey and Behemoth reads exceptionally well for an Open Handicap like this.

RACE 2

$50 win WRITTEN MISS (3) at $2.90

Flashy chestnut with extremely good natural speed. Will find herself in front quickly and as long as she handles the Flemington straight she wins. This has been a target race for quite some time and jockey Jason Benbow knows the filly well, having ridden all her work. Led basically from start to finish at Pakenham last start and maybe stargazed a shade. Will be better for the experience.

RACE 6

$25 each-way LUNAKORN (10) at $6.50/$2.30

Been somewhat costly of late but last-start third, making up enormous ground from back against a leaders’ bias, suggests the Puissance De Lune mare is ready to hit top gear. Will get every opportunity with Jamie Kah aboard for trainers Anthony and Sam Freedman. Versatile enough to handle all track conditions, a definite each-way play from a good draw.

RACE 8

$25 each-way VINLAND (2) at $7.50/$2.50

Ex-Tony and Calvin McEvoy galloper making debut for Lindsey Smith stable. Track and distance specialist that is proven fresh, with a win and two minor placings from six first-up appearances. Failed to come up last preparation so some query there but form prior would be super competitive. Blinkers on first time could be a sign of intent from the astute Smith yard. Saves best work for good and heavy ground so monitor track conditions.

THE OIL: FLEMINGTON

Stephen Brassel’s race-by-race analysis and tips.

RACE 1: 12.55PM SEPPELT SALINGER HANDICAP (2600m)

Tricky race to kick off the program but happy to bet and sticking with the class of topweight PRINCESS JENNI (1), who certainly has a bit on these. She’s a 105 rater and entitled to the 62kg but the reality is she’s not badly off as a Group 1 and Group 2 winner. Good winning the Bendigo Cup then five weeks between runs when a brave fifth in the Pakenham Cup under 61kg after racing wide early and chasing the pace. Gets a soft run from the two gate. BARTHOLMOEU DIAS (3) looks the danger after three runs back form a spell and raced wide and brave when only two lengths from the winner at Moonee Valley last start.
SUGGESTED BET: Princess Jenni the win and save on the quinella (1 & 3) with Bartholomeu Dias.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Wentwood $6 – $5.50

Princess Jenni’s class should prevail in the opener.

RACE 2: 1.30PM LEXUS HOLIDAY PLATE (1200m)
With a stack of dual acceptors it makes for a trap trying to sort this out early but going with one of those dual acceptors in REAL FEELING (7) who was ultra-impressive winning at Wodonga when resuming. She wasn’t the best to begin but drove through to be leaders back before charging clear late. Inside gate again – same run? Only other start was in Listed company when not disgraced. Liked the win of ZION (6) another dual acceptor in at The Valley and SAN MARINO (5) could be over the odds after a solid win on debut at Werribee and he’ll be strong late. HICKOK (4) another chance while prepared to risk the favourite WRITTEN MISS (3) at the 1200m.
SUGGESTED BET: Provided they all show up I’m backing Real Feeling.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Hickok $5.50 – $5

RACE 3: 2.05PM TAB APP TROPHY (1400m)
Connections made their intentions early with dual acceptor LUCKY SHAM (7) scratching her from a benchmark 64 at The Valley to run in tougher grade at Flemington. She was first past the post on debut only to lose in ‘the room’ but atoned with an emphatic performance at Yarra Valley. Expect she’ll park up behind the speed and be strong late, at the double figure odds she’s a play. Also having something on BELLA TIARA (6) who won over this distance at Warrnambool when resuming. No knock apart on SENSATIONALISM (3) apart from the short odds.
SUGGESTED BET: Back both Lucky Sham and Bella Tiara and save on the boxed quinella 3, 6, 7.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sensationalism $4.60 – $2.90

Skiddaw will get a good run from an ideal draw.

RACE 4: 2.40PM #LOVETHEHORSE TROPHY (1600m)
Damian Lane found the key to SKIDDAW (4) last start at Ballarat and he sticks here from an ideal draw which makes the Danny O’Brien-trained galloper the one to beat. Lane and Skiddaw have combined four times for two wins and a second placings so clearly he’s the man and he’s riding in top form. VUNGERS (1) gets the 3kg claim and leads from the inside gate and Skiddaw should get a lovely trail. AUSSIE NUGGET (7) ran on well over an unsuitable journey first-up and he’s a second up winner worthy of respect while LONG ARM (8) is the query having his first local start but going well into the race however he’ll be better over more ground. Watch the market!
SUGGESTED BET: Skiddaw the win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Vungers $4.60 – $3.40

RACE 5: 3.20PM MYER GIFTORIUM HANDICAP (1400m)
KING MAGNUS (8) racing in great form and with the 2kg claim for Lachie King carried only a half kilo over the bottom weight. Was good winning at Pakenham and Sandown and fought on gamely at Sandown in a similar race. Will be there from the outset and shapes as the one to beat. SACCHARO (11) comes out of that same Sandown race when very good at his first run for 77 weeks. Fitter he warrants respect and shapes as the main danger while a market watch on GARIMPEIRO (10) who is lightly race and resuming for Lindsey Smith and not dismissing MIDSHIPS (6).
SUGGESTED BET: Backing both King Magnus and Saccharo.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Midships $10 – $7.50

RACE 6: 4PM MERRY CHRISTMAS VRC MEMBERS PLATE (1600m)
Resuming from a six month break LAMU (7) was warming up well late over an unsuitable 1400m journey at Sandown when she simply couldn’t sprint with them. Out to 1600m she’s going to be much better suited. OCEAN’S THIRTEEN probably the toughest for her to beat off her impressive Moonee Valley win last time and does get the 3kg claim to carry a half over the limit. RE EDIT (2) has been outstanding in her two runs this time in and will be hitting the line hard but just a query whether she might be looking for a touch further now. PRES DE TOI (11) was close up behind Re Edit last time and must be respected again.
SUGGESTED BET: Lamu each-way and save on Ocean’s Thirteen
TAB MARKET MOVER: Ocean’s Thirteen $4.60 – $4.20

Riding The Wave looks a genuine chance again.

RACE 7: 4.40PM FURPHY FESTIVE SEASON SPRINT (1200m)
RIDING THE WAVE (6) was good at his second local run when charging home from the back to get up late over 1100m at Ballarat. He’s up in class but building a nice record and having won out to 1400m he’s going to be strong late. DEFIANT DANCER (8) got the perfect trail and did the job impressively at Pakenham when resuming and he’ll strip fitter, plus he gets a claim for Campbell Rawiller (probably 2.5kg of 3kg). CAN’T BE DONE (10) turned in an eye catcher when fourth at Ballarat and the conditions of the race suit. EXCESS FUND (1) the other main chance.
SUGGESTED BET: Riding The Wave and save the quinella boxing 6, 8, 10.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Defiant Dancer $4.60 – $3.30

RACE 8: 5.20PM KENNEDY HANDICAP (1400m)
Big query on VINLAND (2) here making his debut for first-up master Lindsey Smith and blinkers first time, certainly sends off some alarm bells. He’s a handy horse when right and a first-up winner. Last time when resuming was beaten 3¼ lengths when fourth in a 1200m handicap at Caulfield so is certainly suited here on his best. He’s a two-time winner at Flemington and four wins and two seconds from eight starts at the distance range ticks 1400m big time. TITAN BLINDERS (10) is flying at present and he’ll give them plenty to chase. STRATEGIC PHIL (13) should be ready to fire after a solid effort first-up and OVER EXPOSURE (9) likewise.
SUGGESTED BET: Vinland is worth the risk v reward, save on Titan Blinders
TAB MARKET MOVER: Titan Blinders $4 – $2.90

RACE 9: 6PM GH MUMM CHRISTMAS PLATE (1000m)
OVERKILL (4) shapes as one of the better bets of the day if he runs up to his latest effort when fourth at Moonee Valley after working hard early. Only lightly raced he’s three from six and the drop back in distance from 1200m to 1000m should see him strong at the line. SWORD OF MERCY (13) is a consistent mare who won first-up last preparation and she’s jumped out well in preparation for this. CHINA AFFAIR (14) is another lightly raced galloper with a solid record and he too jumped out well recently and significantly Damien Oliver takes the reins.
SUGGESTED BET: Overkill to close the day out a winner.
TAB MARKET MOVES: China Affair $14 – $12

Defiant Dancer salutes at Pakenham this month.

QUINNY’S MAILBAG: WHY THIS ISO ISN’T HARD TO SWALLOW

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn looks for a winner at the weekend as the youngsters press their claims for next month’s Magic Millions Raceday.

BEST BET

DEFIANT DANCER (Flemington Race 7, No. 8)

VALUE BET

NIGHT WITCHES (Flemington Race 6, No. 14)

LAY OF THE WEEK

ACCOUNTABILITY (Randwick Race 4, No. 8)

Flemington Race 7

The Phillip Stokes-trained Defiant Dancer heads the market at $3.30 after opening $4.80.

He is chasing a fourth straight win after recording back-to-back victories at Morphettville before winning at Pakenham on the stand-alone raceday.

The Danny O’Brien-trained Can’t Be Done has firmed from $7 into $5.50 and with a good third up record should again be in the finish.

Former Kiwi Riding The Wave has been soft in betting drifting from $4.80 out to $7.

She caught the eye running fourth at Bendigo at her Australian debut and stripped fitter to salute at Ballarat last start on their stand-alone meeting.

She looks well suited stepping up to 1200m where she has had four starts for two wins and two placings.

SUGGESTED BET: DEFIANT DANCER THE WIN

Doomben Race 8

Star filly Isotope is odds-on at $1.80 to carry on her winning ways. The Tony Gollan-trained filly resumed from a spell with a dominant win at Doomben and has now won three of her six career starts. She looks well placed to win again and carry on towards the Magic Millions.

Away Game appears again for the first time since a herculean two year-old preparation that saw her have eight starts for four wins including victories in the Magic Millions Classic and the Group 2 Percy Sykes. She must be respected but will be worth sticking with throughout the campaign irrespective of the result on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BET: ISOTOPE THE WIN

Isotope winning at the Sunshine Coast. Picture: Trackside Photography

Randwick Race 7

There has been strong early support for the Matthew Smith-trained Lashes, who has firmed from $4.60 into $4. One punter parted with $2000 the win at $4.60 and $3000 the place at $1.85 on the mare registering her fifth career victory. She resumes from a spell and has a good first-up record with a win and three placings from five previous attempts.

Sally’s Day has also attracted support firming from $5.50 into $4.20. Sally’s Day lost no admirers resuming from a spell with another placing behind Lillemor, she has been a model of consistency but if there is a slight knock on her she has won just twice from 11 starts.

Early punters are shying away from Human Nature who has been pushed from $5.50 out to $7. There has been support at big odds for Our Bellagio Miss who has firmed from $21 into $15. The speedy mare should be ready to improve third up from a spell and can give a sight at odds.

SUGGESTED BET: LASHES EACH-WAY

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, betting analysis for Flemington