Friday formline: Horses, jockeys and trainers to follow this weekend
OUR stable of experts pinpoint the horses, jockeys and trainers to follow this weekend.
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OUR stable of experts pinpoint the horses, jockeys and trainers to follow this weekend.
HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS
THE EARLY OIL: CAULFIELD
Nathan Exelby (The Courier Mail)
Doomben
THE BANKER
Tiyatrolani (Race 5) has dominated lesser rivals in two starts to date and now takes on toughest test. Main dangers here are seemingly horses who will be seated over further later on. Can be too fast.
IN THE FRAME
Terrible to see Tap This (Race 8) bottled up and never get clear last time at the big overs. Is a similar price here in tougher field, but she will box seat again and provided the gaps come this time, looks likely to spring quickly.
RISK
Elegant Composure (Race 3) left us with egg on our faces last time, building further on her unbeaten record. This looks considerably tougher and she’s drawn out again, potentially posing a risk to the run she will get in transit. With only soft time figures from her past couple, banking on the streak coming to an end here.
JOCKEY (on fire): Blake Shinn is the man in Queensland over the past year. He strikes at 28% at Doomben in the past 12 months and has a host of key rides across the day. Primed to cause another BTC Cup boilover like he did last year on Hot Snitzel when he rides Dothraki in the day’s feature.
STABLE (on fire): Peter and Paul Snowden are formidable foes when they come to Brisbane and if anyone is going to make a lie of Chris Waller’s $1.10 price tag to be the leading trainer of stakes horses on the day, it’s Team Snowden. Dothraki and Charlie Boy loom as genuine hopes in the BTC Cup, while Tap This is a top hope in the Rough Habit Plate.
Ben Scadden (The Advertister)
Morphettville
BANKER
Illustrious Lad was a dominant winner at Morphettville two starts back then chased home Supido last time. He only needs to hold that form to be too good in this.
IN THE PICTURE
Have Plenty won at Morphettville two starts ago and is usually around the mark in his races. He can tend to overrace but if Joe Bowditch can get him to settle he should be fighting out the finish.
RISK
Two-year-old Morvada beat most of his rivals last time but he looks too short at odds of around $2.50. Plenty of question marks over some of his rivals and these longer juvenile races are often capable of delivering a surprise result.
STABLE (on fire): The Hayes-Dabernig stable has barely missed a beat in Adelaide since winning the cup with Purple Smile in the middle of March. They’re strongly represented again at Morphettville on Saturday, with their best chances including Lahqa (Race 4) and Shaf (Race 8). They also have two runners in the SA Derby — Sacred Eye and Bullish Stock.
JOCKEY (on fire): Victorian jockey Daniel Moor only has three rides at Morphettville on Saturday — but each look to have winning hopes. Two-year-old Baroque is expected to improve sharply in the Oaklands Plate, while trainer David Jolly gives Herenoa (Race 8) a strong chance. But Moor’s plum ride is Cool Chap for Lee Freedman in the Derby, where the hoop can claim a prized Group 1 success.
Danny Russell (Herald Sun)
Caulfield
BANKER
The only rolled-gold moral of the day on a super-tough Caulfield program is Darren Weir’s Raw Impulse in the first. Springs Cups-grade horse, bolts in. But unless it gets the drifts, you’ll be taking the prohibitive odds of $1.40. Smart move might be to take Raw Impulse into Weir’s Doomben runner Real Love ($3).
IN THE PICTURE
It really is a fishing expedition at Caulfield, but we’ll cast a hook for Belesron. The gelding has crossed to Mick Price from Peter Moody and has apparently been “flying” in work. Has a 50% winning strike rate first-up.
RISK
Godolphin toyed with sending Unbreakable to Adelaide for the Derby, but has opted for a 2000m race for three-year-olds at Caulfield instead. Is giving away weight and first try at 2000m makes the horses unders for mine.
STABLE (on fire): It is the Phil Sly memorial day at Caulfield on Saturday, so look for the late owner’s key trainers, Robert Smerdon and John Sadler, for a result. Horses carrying his colours are Japhils and Ability. Smerdon nominated Ability as his best for the day, while Sadler said his leading chance was Lonrockstar.
JOCKEY (on fire): Dean Yendall is a winning machine in the bush, but becomes Darren Weir’s No. 1 rider in Melbourne with Brad Rawiller riding Real Love and Stratum Star in Queensland and John Allen on Derby hope Howard Be Thy Name in Adelaide. Yendall’s best mounts are Raw Impulse, Gimlet and Shades of Bella in the first three races.
Originally published as Friday formline: Horses, jockeys and trainers to follow this weekend
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