Sunshine Coast races: Nathan Exelby’s tips, best bets and analysis

Find out why racing editor Nathan Exelby reckons a horse with a poor win strike rate is a good gamble at the Sunshine Coast.

Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at the Sunshine Coast, with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

SUNSHINE COAST

Track: Good (4). Weather: Possible shower, 28C.

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BET

Sambro (place), Race 8, $3.80

VALUE

Better Than Best, Race 2, $6.50

Minted/Dee Day Diva, Race 6, $13/$26

Magic Conqueror, Race 7, $12

Prometheus, Race 8, $14

Tambo’s Mate/River Bird, Race 9, $8.50/$15

Sambro is great value for the place at Sunshine Coast. Picture: AAP

LADBROKES SUMMARY

BEST BACKED

Criminal Defence, Race 7, $9.50-$5

Lyrical Girl, Race 1, $1.80-$1.70

Bold Style, Race 8, $19-$10

Platinum Euros, Race 4, $2.30-$2

Invincible Al, Race 9, $11-$7.50

LAY OF THE DAY

Divulge, Race 7, $2.35

BEST BET

Emerald Kingdom, Race 8, $4

RACE 4

Nathan Says: Platinum Euros was something to behold after being tardy away and out the back last time before making a mess of his rivals in the straight. Two runs before that he stretched the neck of Garibaldi, which obviously looks very good form now too. He failed at 1200m two starts back, but trainer Nat McCall said jockey Glen Boss told her to be very forgiving of the run that day. Don’t see any reason he won’t get 1200m and that being the case, he will be too good for these. Looks a tricky race if it’s not him. What’s The Fuss brings good country form, but he was safely held in the city prior. Jetski is going consistently and Trengganu can improve further on the fresh win.

Ladbrokes Say: Platinum Euros has been a really good go. He’s $2.30 into $2. It’s just one way traffic for him and we have hardly laid another horse. He looks to have a lot of ability, but only beat a fairly ordinary lot last week, so we have to take him on at this price. Jetski back to the Sunshine Coast might be our best chance.

The Play: PLATINUM EUROS to continue charging through the grades.

RACE 5

Nathan Says: I’m a big fan of older horses when they find form and Penshurst fits the bill here. Matt Dunn has him flying this prep. Backed up the fresh win with a powerful display at Ballina, where he towelled up a few that have been competitive in town. Tempo doesn’t look great in this race, but he doesn’t have to get as far back either and he did reel off a big sectional last time. Highly competitive race though, with Star Of Michelin (suited back to this class), Couldn’t Refuse (going great guns) and Enterprise Prince (nice effort last week) all legitimate chances too.

Ladbrokes Say: A few chances and the punters have got around a couple of them. Enterprise Prince is $12 into $7.50 and Couldn’t Refuse is $3.80 into $3.60 and the new favourite. Penshurst is $3.60 out to $3.80. We thought this was very open and wouldn’t rule out any of them, so we are going for the track specialist Lucky Jackson, who showed a bit of spark last time. For a five times winner at the track, we are with him at $21.

The Play: PENSHURST on top.

Trainer Matt Dunn has Penshurst flying this campaign. Picture: Glenn Hampson

RACE 6

Nathan Says: Pull Anchor is going super and may well win this, but $3 at 1400m is too short for mine. Keen to try a couple at odds. Minted ($13) is building nicely this prep. Okay at Eagle Farm, then finished every bit as well as Thunder Mania last time in a rich race. Sydney form around Varda and Tailleur also reads well for this. 1400m looks like suiting now and hoping Ben Thompson can let him find his feet, then bring him right to the outside and sweep home. The other one is Dee Day Diva ($26). Put the writing on the wall at Doomben, then hasn’t stretched out at Eagle Farm her past couple. Three-year-old form around Ballistic Boy, Profit, reads well for this, plus she loves the track. Hoping to see a different horse today.

Ladbrokes Say: Pull Anchor is $3.10 into $3. Kateru is $17 into $13. Thought the punters might be on the mark with Kateru. He’ drawn awkwardly but will most likely go back. Think he’s been working towards a race like this and don’t think there should be as much between him and Samurai.

The Play: Keen to play MINTED and DEE DAY DIVA.

RACE 7

Nathan Says: Looks an even race with a few chances. Divulge is the fav and he has a hope after looking good to the eye in the maiden win, but there wasn’t a lot of substance on the clock. Much better opposition here. The one over the odds is seemingly Magic Conqueror. Like stablemate Batangas Entry last week, he tumbles in grade for this. Struck trouble when Isotope fell in the Guineas and before that was fair behind Apache Chase. Kelly Schweida continues to go great guns, so happy to be with this boy. Other hopes to Criminal Defence, Way Beyond and Little Miss Pixie.

Ladbrokes Say: Good go from the time we went up for Criminal Defence, which is $9.50 into $5. That has seen Divulge ease from $2.05 out to $2.35. We have come up with Magic Conqueror. He’s coming back from the A-grade to a lot weaker company. He was thrown in the deep end and at $12 (in from $15) he looks better than a few of these.

The Play: MAGIC CONQUEROR a likely shortener on the day, so $12 looks good.

Magic Conqueror is good value in race 7. Picture: Greg Irvine

RACE 8

Nathan Says: Sambro doesn’t win often, but strikes at better than 50 per cent the place, so $3.80 to fill a hole off the good gate for Luke Dittman looks a really good gamble here. He was well backed to win the MM Cup, but reared at the start. Prior was close up in the Villiers and another Group race in Sydney. This is easier. Can have something on at $12 the win, but the place price is the most appealing. Prometheus was left a sitting shot last week. He will be better stalking and his run three starts back showed he’s well up to a race like this. Emerald Kingdom is a worthy favourite. He will give a huge sight, just querying the 58kg.

Ladbrokes Say: Bold Style is $19 into $10 and Sofie’s Gold Class is $18 into $12. The favourite Emerald Kingdom is very solid at $4 and we think he’s a five star special. Last two runs have been outstanding, especially last time when he held on super. Think he’s better than these and the $4 is fair enough.

The Play: SAMBRO to fill a place at $3.80. PROMETHEUS both totes at $14/$4.20. Add in EMERALD KINGDOM with that pair in quins.

RACE 9

Nathan Says: Plenty of hopes, but Tambo’s Mate back to his home track and over the short course appeals. Stu Kendrick must have been shocked to see him actually draw a barrier and Ryan Maloney can have him box seating here. Hopefully four weeks is enough to put zip back into the legs. Spurcraft is going super. Big effort to run second last time. Question is how much start does he give away again? River Bird is interesting. She was good in stakes grade at Doomben, then a total forget run at Eagle Farm. Has trialled nice enough leading into this. Even though she hasn’t won for an age, had some solid Sydney form to her credit last year and the indications are the new stable of O’Dea and Hoysted have her back to her best.

Ladbrokes Say: Invincible Al has been $11 into $7.50 and Spurcraft is $4 into $3.80 and favourite. We found this tricky, but ended up with Kalik ($10). He has a good record at the track and looks ready to win again. He should get the right run. The other one we give a chance to is River Bird at $15. Not much has gone right up here and the trial was all right.

The Play: TAMBO’S MATE is enticing at $8.50/$2.80 and also RIVER BIRD at $15. SPURCRAFT included in multis.

Tambo’s Mate returns to his home track on Saturday.

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

“She will be somewhere in the first two pairs and will be really hard to beat. I think she’s a fair way better than this grade.” TONY GOLLAN, Lyrical Girl (Race 1).

“He’s very smart. He won his last start and the owners were happy to send him to this race on his own track. I expect him to race very well.” TREVOR MILLER, Zingalong (Race 2).

“He has a nice gate, stays down in the weights and it looks a nice race on paper for him. He’s starting to mature and show what he’s shown us at home. I expect him to be very competitive.” DESLEIGH FORSTER, Couldn’t Refuse (Race 5).

“As long as we’re close enough on straightening I’m not too concerned. We will put her to sleep, I think she can outsprint this lot.” TONY GOLLAN, Pull Anchor (Race 6).

“This has been a target race since he won the Maiden. I think he’s a pretty exciting horse and one that can play a part in the winter.” TONY GOLLAN, Divulge (Race 7).

“Larry (Cassidy) was adamant he was going to wind up and run in the first eight. He’s definitely a miler. If it rains, that doesn’t hurt him either. He’s a better chance than his odds suggest.” KELLY SCHWEIDA, Magic Conqueror (Race 7).

“He went out to our farm after (his last start), had a nice easy week in the paddock, had a nice 1000m jumpout on Monday and went really well.” STUART KENDRICK, Way Beyond (Race 7).

“His run was super last time, we’ve kept him fresh and this trip suits him, but I would have liked an alley.” KELLY SCHWEIDA, Spurcraft (Race 9).

“We’ve backed right off him, put him on the water walker, given him an easy time of it and he’s shown on the track he’s nice and sharp. I’m hoping he can sit third or fourth and get his chance.” STUART KENDRICK, Tambo’s Mate (Race 9).

Originally published as Sunshine Coast races: Nathan Exelby’s tips, best bets and analysis