Rosehill races: Brad Davidson’s tips and extended preview

Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson finds it hard to fault the Godolphin-trained mare Savitiano in the feature race at Rosehill Gardens.

Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets and TAB market movers, for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

ROSEHILL GARDENS

Track: Soft 5. Rail: 3m out.

R1 (1.15pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1500m)

OVERVIEW: Al Mah Haha picks himself here and he is so well in under the plate conditions. I can’t remember the last time a Highway horse was beaten just over two lengths in a Group 2 race in his lead up form. Proven Class will get back and close off and the concern with her is her racing pattern but also whether she is looking for further. Toro Toro and Perfect Pitch on the next line.

BETTING ADVICE: AL MAH HAHA to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Al Mah Haha $2.30-$2.20 ($700 @ $2.30, $500 @ $2.30 TWICE, $900 @ $2.25, $350 @ $2.20)

R2 (1.50pm): WIDDEN STAKES (1100m)

OVERVIEW: Hard to go past Mallory and she bumped into the Golden Slipper favourite on debut in the Gimcrack. She beat the rest and I loved the way she closed off in a recent Rosehill trial run in good time. Vianello looks the danger of her two runs to date. She won well on debut at Newcastle and then was the strongest on the line over 1100m at Randwick. Total Babe next best.

BETTING ADVICE: MALLORY to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mallory $2.40 unchanged ($1,000 @ $2.40)

Mallory (yellow) chased home the top-class filly Enthaar in the Gimcrack Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

R3 (2.25pm): CANONBURY STAKES (1100m)

OVERVIEW: Tricky race with quite a few of these making their debuts. Home Affairs won his trial at Rosehill by two lengths leading in and clocked one of the quickest heats of the morning in the process. Construct was good behind subsequent Magic Millions winner, Shaquero on debut and he has had a couple of trials to get ready for his return. Giannis trialled nicely on two occasions and he wasn’t far off subsequent winner Stay Inside in the latest of those trials. He has just been a touch tardy away in both trials. Zethus closed off strongly fresh and should do the same, while Readily Availabull and Conexy are likely to have admirers.

BETTING ADVICE: HOME AFFAIRS on top.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Giannis $15-$6 ($1,000 @ $13, $500 @ $10, $500 @ $8, $500 e/w @ $6/$2.10), Home Affairs $6-$3.40 ($361 @ $6, $200 @ $6, $200 @ $5.50, $300 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.40, $700 @ $3.80, $500 @ $3.80 MULTIPLE TIMES, $578 @ $3.70, $500 @ $3.50)

R4 (3pm): BENCHMARK 78 (2000m)

OVERVIEW: Hard to go past the Irish import, Great House and he did enough over the mile at Melbourne in his Aussie debut to suggest he is the horse to beat here. I thought My Demetra was the best roughie and she beat home California Longbow comfortably last start yet he is one third her price here. California Longbow does get the blinkers on though and this gear change has sparked him up in the past. Word For Word was disappointing last start but can bounce back, while Vadiyann will take some catching and improved sharply with the blinkers on last start.

BETTING ADVICE: GREAT HOUSE the horse to beat but MY DEMETRA the value.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Great House $4.60-$4.80-$3.90, My Demetra $15-$13

R5 (3.40pm): BENCHMARK 72 (1400m)

OVERVIEW: Pretty even race. Marsannay hit the line well fresh and then was caught three wide no cover second up in a decent Class 4 on the Gold Coast. He should find the front here and would like some rain. Tycoonist and Shaik come through the same race last time out and Tycoonist won and beat home Shaik by 1 ¾ lengths. Shaik gets a 2.5kg swing in the weights though and she will appreciate it if we get rain (Tycoonist wants it dry). Derbari looms as a big improver if the track is wet, while Starla just keeps running well.

BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to MARSANNAY.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Oscar Zulu $11-$5.50 ($223 x $300 e/w @ $10/$3.10, $300 @ $7.50, $300 @ $6.50), Marsannay $4.60-$4.80-$4.20 ($400 @ $4.80, $3,490 @ $4.60, $4,500 @ $4.20

R6 (4.20pm): BENCHMARK 78 (1400m)

OVERVIEW: Not much between these. Starspangled Rodeo was outstanding fresh and the extra trip should suit. He can just do a lot wrong. I liked the run of Charretera last start and he draws a marble to be just worse than midfield and should close off. Other chances to Ulysses, Canasta, Bluff N Bluster and Juventus.

BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to STARSPANGLED RODEO if it’s not too wet.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Charretera $8-$7 ($300 e/w @ $7.50/$2.50), Bluff N Bluster $26-$8 ($300 @ $26, $600 x $400 e/w @ $19/$4.80, $1,100 x $300 e/w @ $18/$4.60, $300 @ $16, $700 x $300 e/w @ $14/$3.90, $400 @ $12, $500 @ $9.50 TWICE, $500 e/w @ $8/$2.60, $300 @ $8)

Savatiano will be hard to beat in the Expressway Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

R7 (5pm): EXPRESSWAY STAKES (1200m)

OVERVIEW: I have to be with Savatiano here and she is just the one that I expect to be ready to rumble here. She has a great fresh record, should find the front and doesn’t mind a soft track either. Ole Kirk is no doubt a very nice horse but how wound up will he be for this at 1200m? He should be rocketing home all the same. Flit looks the other main hope and she trialled well without the blinkers recently and they go on race day. She bolted in first-up two preps ago on a wet track at 1200m at Randwick. Star Of The Seas can run a cheeky race here if it’s wet.

BETTING ADVICE: SAVATIANO to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Star Of The Seas $6-$6.50 ($450 @ $6.50), Standout $8-$5.50 ($500 @ $7, $750 @ $5.50)

R8 (5.40pm): SKY RACING ACTIVE HCP (1500m)

OVERVIEW: Pretty even race. Above And Beyond ticked the 1500m box last time and he actually drops in weight for this harder assignment. Frosty Rocks could appreciate the drop back to 1500m and he should find the front and prove hard to run down. He doesn’t mind a wet track so any rain won’t hurt him. Brutality was given a peach by Kathy O’Hara last start and was a shade disappointing. He comes right into play if the track is wet. Betcha Flying and Mount Popa also have claims too.

BETTING ADVICE: Not much between ABOVE AND BEYOND and FROSTY ROCKS.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mount Popa $15-$5

R9 (6.15pm): BENCHMARK 88 (1200m)

OVERVIEW: Masked Crusader looks hard to beat in the last and he didn’t quite live up to the raps last prep but I liked his trial and he should have won first-up last preparation at Randwick over 1100m. Big Parade is definitely hit and miss and his best form has been on dry ground. His best is good enough to win this though. Mo’s Crown and Lillemoor on the next line.

BETTING ADVICE: MASKED CRUSADER to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Masked Crusader $2-$1.95 ($500 @ $2)