Melbourne Cup 2016: Barriers to avoid, horses to pick and colours to back
WHEN it comes to picking a Melbourne Cup winner it’s a numbers game. We’ve crunched them all to give you the best chance on Tuesday.
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WHEN it comes to picking a Melbourne Cup winner it’s a numbers game. We’ve crunched them all to give you the best chance on Tuesday.
Do you back the favourite? Take the expert’s tip? Back an outsider and hope for the best?
There are so many permutations so we’ve simplified it for you.
Here’s how to pick a winner.
Back a five-year-old: Since the inaugural Cup race 45 wins have come from horses of that age group — Protectionist the most recent in 2014.
Do not back barrier 18: It’s the only gate that has never produced a winner. Barriers 5, 10, 11 are the most successful. If you’re really into the barrier numbers, 2, 7 and 15 have not been all that great either.
Back the bays: OK they’re the most common colour horse but also the most successful having claimed a total of 66 wins (42 per cent).
Year of the mare? Just 16 females have ever won the Cup — admittedly Makybe Diva did it three times and no mare has done it since.
Saddlecloths: All eyes on the numbers 4 and 12 in this department with 11 wins apiece. Six and 1 not bad options either on 10 wins each.
Blue is the colour: Jockeys with blue silks have enjoyed the bulk of success with 41 wins. Black comes in a close second (33) and yellow/gold third (30)
Favourites for a reason: OK, we were all caught out last year when Prince of Penzance won the Cup but over the history of the race 34 favourites have come good (22 per cent). Michelle Payne became the fourth member of the elite 100-1 outsider to win in 2015.
Target weight: 53kg is the magic number here. Horses lugging this amount have proven most successful.
So you’re looking for a 5-year old horse, blue silks, bayd and that’s lugging 53kg.
No horse in this year’s race ticks all the boxes but Hartnell comes pretty close. Oh and just happens to be favourite. TICK.
Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2016: Barriers to avoid, horses to pick and colours to back
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