Flemington tips, best bets, odds and quaddie analysis from the experts

If you’re planning on having a bet at Flemington then this is a must-read. Get the best bets, quaddie analysis and best roughies from the experts.

Zac De Boss is aiming for three wins from three starts. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

It could pay to follow jockeys Damien Thornton, Jamie Kah and Will Price on Saturday at Flemington.

The trio boast a strong book of rides respectively and should be making their presence felt.

Ahead of a huge day, check out Gilbert Gardiner’s best bets.

BEST BET

HIGH ‘N’ DRY

R8 No. 4 $8

Charged late to win at Sandown last start and looks capable of going on with the job. Should appreciate the big track and jockey Damien Thornton going great guns.

NEXT BEST

SIREN ROCK

R2 No. 6 $3.50

Toppy all the rage and deservedly so but Kah-Freedman combination going gangbusters at the moment. Impressive 3.8 length last start winner making city debut. Big chance.

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Blazejowski is a three-time winner at Flemington. Picture: AAP Images

BLAZEJOWSKI

R7 No. 1 $6.50

Too bad to be true at Sandown two starts back then improved at Caulfield. Three-time winner at Flemington, including twice at 1400m. Big chance.

VALUE BET

MISS DIVINE EM

R5 No. 1 $17

Consistent filly who should be in the finish again. Runner-up behind Zoushine last start at Caulfield and meets her better at the weights this time. Tricky race but will be in the finish.

INFLUENTIAL GIRL

R6 No. 12 $13

Gets in light, drawn perfectly and stable firing on every cylinder. Gets back so will need some luck. Runner-up behind Tralee Rose three starts back reads well for this assignment.

THE JOCKEY

WILL PRICE

Talented apprentice has a nice book of rides including last start winners ZOUSHINE (R5 No. 2 $4.40) and TYCOON BEC (R8 No. 13 $4.40).

Also aboard THE MARG FACTOR (R2 No. 7 $19), OCEAN‘S THIRTEEN (R3 No. 1 $5) and PACODALI (R6 No. 1 $13)

Influential Girl (right) is one of the best value chances of the day. Picture: Getty Images

QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS

LEG 1: RACE 6

Back to headquarters on Saturday and a competitive open handicap to start the quaddie. MOSH MUSIC (3) is the top pick after excellent efforts at her first two runs back from a spell. We’re putting in DEFIBRILLATE (4) after his strong win at Caulfield second-up while his Patrick Payne-trained stablemate DOUBLE YOU TEE (6) is also worth including. PANCHO (5) was solid at Caulfield while SENTIMENTALIST (10) and INFLUENTIAL GIRL (12) could add a bit of value if either can handle the step up in class here.

1ST LEG – 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12

LEG 2: RACE 7

The Chester Manifold Stakes features 10 runners but we’re happy to have narrowed this leg down to four chances. RIDING THE WAVE (7) goes in as the top pick as he’s racing well and is ready for 1400m. BLAZEJOWSKI (1) is the class of the field and is a Group 3 winner over the Flemington 1400m course. BRAVE SONG (2) hasn’t won over 1400m but did his best work late at Caulfield on Boxing Day while VASSILATOR (3) has posted all his career wins over the Flemington 1400m course so he’s a must for the quaddie.

2ND LEG – 1, 2, 3, 7

LEG 3: RACE 8

The third leg is the most difficult so we’re going with six of the 15 runners in the field. TYCOON BEC (13) is flying and is the top pick to complete a hat-trick of wins to start her career. STAROUZ (3) is racing honestly while HIGH ’N’ DRY (4) impressed with the way he finished to score at Sandown second-up and he’s placed at both 1800m runs. MOSCOW RED (5) is improving with fitness and should be running on late while GARIMPEIRO (10) isn’t far away from a win and will be fitter for two runs back from a spell.

3RD LEG: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 13

Don’t leave Defibrillate out of your quaddie. Picture: Getty Images

LEG 4: RACE 9

Big field down the straight to finish the Flemington quaddie, which is no help to punters, but we’re hoping five picks can do the job here. THE GENERAL (10) is the top pick from his middle gate while NOT ENOUGH EFFORT (1) is capable of improving on his output last time in. CHINA AFFAIR (4) has plenty of talent and went well first-up while IDIDITFORLOVE (5) is another that is capable of taking out the Flemington finale without surprising. VICI (11) hit the line hard first-up and he’s expected to be running on again late while GOLD SPARK (13) impressed with his last-start win at Sale and should be hard to beat.

4TH LEG: 1, 4, 5, 10, 11, 13

COST: $100 FOR 11.5%

SKINNY QUADDIE

The main quaddie is tricky enough but the skinny quaddie could produce a decent dividend if we can pinch it. Starting with a glory-or-nothing approach in the first leg with MOSH MUSIC (3) one-out before sticking with three – BLAZEJOWSKI (1), VASSILATOR (3) and RIDING THE WAVE (7) in the Chester Manifold Stakes. Going with TYCOON BEX (13) and HIGH ’N’ DRY (4) in the third leg. Can’t get the last leg any skinnier than five selections – THE GENERAL (10), NOT ENOUGH EFFORT (1), CHINA AFFAIR (4), IDIDITFORLOVE (5) and GOLD SPARK (13).

1ST LEG: 3

2ND LEG: 1, 3, 7

3RD LEG: 4, 13

4TH LEG: 1, 4, 5, 10, 13

COST $100 FOR 333%

FOUR-PLAY BRAD WATERS $200 BETTING STRATEGY

RACE 2 FLEMINGTON

THE MUMM ROYALE (1400M)

$50 WIN ZAC DE BOSS (1) at $2.80

The best bet of the day is early, which gives the option of pulling up stumps and enjoying the fruits of labour if Zac De Boss can get the money in the second race. He does a few things wrong but he’s exciting and gets back to his own age group on Saturday. He should be too strong.

RACE 4 FLEMINGTON

LIVING LEGENDS HANDICAP (1720M)

$25 EACH-WAY EL GUERROUJ (7) at $10 / $3.20

El Guerrouj could provide a huge boost to the kitty if he wins the fourth event after solid efforts in two runs this time. He’s a solid each-way play the odds with the extra fitness this time out. He’s drawn barrier four and the services of premiership-leading jockey Jamie Kah won’t go astray either.

RACE 6 FLEMINGTON

LEXUS HANDICAP (2000M)

$50 WIN MOSH MUSIC (3) at $3.70

It always pays to back horses with impressive winning strike rates and Mosh Music is certainly one of those with seven wins from 13 starts to date. She has tuned up for Saturday’s assignment with a couple of excellent efforts over shorter trips and her record over 2000m is almost impeccable. She’ll get every favour from barrier three and can notch another win to cap her comeback from injury.

Mosh Music is one to watch on Saturday. Picture: AAP Images

RACE 8 FLEMINGTON

SEPPELT SALINGER PLATE (1800M)

$50 WIN TYCOON BEC (13) at $4.80

Tycoon Bec steps up in grade to a Benchmark 70 test at Flemington but everything the Matt Cumani-trained mare has done indicates she’ll be up to the task. She was an easy maiden winner on debut before scoring another strong victory over 1523m at The Valley second-up. She relaxes well in her races so the 1800m of this task shouldn’t be a problem. She’ll be hard to beat with only 54kg after Will Price’s claim.

FLEMINGTON TIPS: RAW TALENT TO SHOW WHO’S BOSS

Herald-Sun form analyst Brad Waters runs the rule over Saturday’s nine-race card at Flemington, plus Nick Quinn takes a look at the main races at the three major meetings this weekend.

THE OIL: FLEMINGTON

BEST BET

ZAC DE BOSS (Race 2, No. 1)

VALUE BET

EL GUERROUJ (Race 4, No. 7)

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 3, 6/1, 2, 3, 4, 8/5, 6, 7, 10/1, 2, 3, 4, 12, 16

$100 flexi for 27.77 per cent

BIG6

5, 6, 7, 10 /1, 4, 6, 12/3, 6, 10, 12/7, 1, 2, 3/3, 4, 5, 13/1, 5, 10, 11

$100 flexi for 2.44 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 3, 4, 6, 10, 12

Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 7

Race 8: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 13

Race 9: 1, 5, 10, 11, 13

$100 flexi for 16.6 per cent

RACE 1: 2:05PM SUMMER TWILIGHT SERIES PLATE (1000m)

Tricky two-year-old race to start the day but going with the Godolphin team, which has performed well with its youngsters in Melbourne this season, especially down the straight. TELLURIDE (12) won a trial at Warwick Farm on December 30 and has had plenty of time to settle into Flemington. DANAUSTAR (5) has jumped out well at Caulfield leading up to his debut while CHAMELEON CHOICE (4) has had plenty of practice at the trials in Sydney and should be well-educated. STRIKE EAGLE (7) from the McEvoy stable can also show up on debut.

SUGGESTED BET: Small win bet on Telluride.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Strike Eagle $9.50 – $7

RACE 2: 2:40PM THE MUMM ROYALE (1400m)

ZAC DE BOSS (1) is an exciting galloper from the Ellerton / Zahra yard with two wins from as many starts, including a strong win over older horses at Caulfield last week. He’s green but has plenty of quality and will settle better on the quick back-up. STILL BE FRIENDS (3) led and won well at Werribee last time and could control this race from the front as well. SIREN ROCK (6) has started his career in promising fashion and should measure up to city level at Flemington. HICKOK (5) was OK behind the promising Dickin Medal at Caulfield last time out and the step to 1400m will suit him on Saturday. Blinkers go on.

SUGGESTED BET: Zac De Boss to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Siren Rock $4.80 – $3.30

RACE 3: 3:20PM FURPHY CRISP LAGER HANDICAP (1600m)

The third is an even Benchmark 70 race for mares in which PART TIME LOVER (3) looks good each-way value at double-figure odds. She lifted well late to score at Sandown last time out and can handle the step up to this level. IT’S TIME (8) chased well behind the impressive Tycoon Bec at The Valley third-up and will be at peak fitness for this. WHITE HIBISCUS (4) has impressed in two runs for the Danny O’Brien stable and will be one of the hardest to beat here. LADY D’ORO (2) is racing well and will be around the mark as well.

SUGGESTED BET: Part Time Lover each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: White Hibiscus $2.10 – $2

RACE 4: 4:00PM GRINDERS COFFEE TROPHY (1600m)

The Benchmark 64 race is probably the toughest of the Flemington meeting but turning to in-form jockey Jamie Kah for a result here on EL GUERROUJ (7). The Busuttin and Young-trained El Guerrouj has run well at both runs this time in and should get the perfect trip from barrier four. ANNUNCIATE (10) fought on well behind the smart Loveplanet at The Valley second-up and will run well if the track is good. IL DIVO (5) raced closer and wasn’t far away in a decent form race at Sandown last time while MURGANELLA (6) was a game on-pace winner at Bendigo last time and will be in this for a long way.

SUGGESTED BET: El Guerrouj each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Saccharo $3.80 – $3.50.

Malicorne and jockey Mark Zahra should again prove hard to beat at Flemington. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 5: 4:40PM TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY SPRINT (1100m)

A big field of three-year-old fillies to scamper down the straight here with finding the right part of the track the key to success. Banking on Mark Zahra doing that on the consistent MALICORNE (4). The Matt Laurie-trained filly bolted in first-up at The Valley and can go on with it in this harder assignment. ZESTY BELLE (16) showed plenty of pace in her first-up win and gets back to her home track for this. MISS DIVINE EM (1) is consistent and will be around the mark again here while DATA POINT (12) dead-heated in a maiden at Mornington last time but might have a bright future.

SUGGESTED BET: Malicorne to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Zesty Belle $13 – $9

RACE 6: 5:20PM LEXUS HANDICAP (2000m)

Open race with a few chances to start the quaddie but going with the Archie Alexander-trained Mosh Music after her excellent closing effort at Caulfield on Boxing Day. Her record over 2000m is terrific and she knows how to find the line, winning seven of 13 starts. SENTIMENTALIST (10) got too far back at Caulfield but can improve if he races closer this time. INFLUENTIAL GIRL (12) is working her way through the grades and could show up her with 52kg after apprentice Lewis German’s claim. DOUBLE YOU TEE (6) didn’t have the best of luck at Werribee but will enjoy the bigger Flemington track.

SUGGESTED BET: Mosh Music to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Pancho $8 – $7

Riding The Wave looks a genuine chance to win at Flemington again.

RACE 7: 6:00PM CHESTER MANIFOLD STAKES (1400M)

Trainer Lindsey Smith found the perfect race to get RIDING THE WAVE (7) to 1400m for the first time in Australia. The five-year-old has raced in great heart since joining Smith’s stable from New Zealand and he kept finding to score at Flemington on New Year’s Day. His 1400m record is strong and he drops to 54kg. BLAZEJOWSKI (1) did well under 62kg on Boxing Day and will be hardest to beat with 2kg less. BRAVE SONG (2) is yet to place at 1400m but his effort in the Christmas Stakes showed he was ready for the trip. VASSILATOR (3) is a Flemington 1400m specialist that should be respected.

SUGGESTED BET: Riding The Wave to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Riding The Wave $4 – $3.30.

RACE 8: 6:35PM SEPPELT SALINGER PLATE (1800m)

The third leg is the toughest of the Flemington quaddie with up to 10 winning chances engaged. Sticking with the unbeaten TYCOON BEC (13), who will carry 54kg after Will Price’s claim, after her impressive win at The Valley last time out. STAROUZ (3) is racing well and will be around the mark despite the tricky gate. HIGH ‘N’ DRY (4) sprinted well to score at Sandown second-up and he’s yet to miss a place over 1800m. MOSCOW RED (5) is improving with racing and can figure in the finish.

SUGGESTED BET: Tycoon Bec to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: High ‘N’ Dry $11 – $8.

RACE 9: 7:05PM KENNEDY SPRINT (1100m)

A big field to finish the twilight meeting at Flemington but happy to go with THE GENERAL (10) first-up down the straight. He has good natural pace and can find the right part of the course from barrier 11. VICI (11) ran on hard to score first-up in a good form race at Bendigo first-up and will be strong late. IDIDITFORLOVE (5) did a good job in a similar race at Caulfield on Boxing Day and should run well while NOT ENOUGH EFFORT (1) has won down the straight and could fire fresh at this level.

SUGGESTED BET: The General to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Ididitforlove $7.50 – $6.50

Quinny’s mailbag: Goldie tip a hot prediction

BEST BET

PINNACLE PRINCE (Randwick Saturday, Race 2, No. 4)

VALUE BET

BANDERSNATCH (Randwick Saturday, Race 6, No. 4)

LAY OF THE WEEK

YAO DASH (Gold Coast Saturday, Race 7, No. 10)

FLEMINGTON RACE 7 

Riding The Wave won strongly at Flemington on New Year’s Day and steps from 1200 to 1400m.

The early money has come for the Lindsey Smith galloper to salute again backed from an opening quote of $4 into $3.40 including one bet of $1500 at $3.40.

This is the first time in Australia he has raced over 1400m but his New Zealand form over the trip is strong with two wins and two placings from six attempts.

He gives every indication he will run a strong 1400m and on the back of the strength of his recent Flemington victory is worth sticking with.

King Of Hastings has attracted early support forming from $6 into $5.50 to be the equal second elect with viral at that quote.

King Of Hastings was disappointing first-up in the Christmas Stakes but is a previous second-up winner.

The runner who looks over the odds and is worth including in the multiples is the Colin Little trained Vassilator.

Vassilator returned to the winners list at Flemington last start and should again be respected.

SUGGESTED BET: RIDE THE WAVE THE WIN

The Astrologist has been well supported to get the job done at the Gold Coast.

GOLD COAST RACE 7

The Astrologist is the best backed runner across the country at this early stage on a bumper day of Saturday racing.

The Corstens-trained four-year-old atoned for a costly defeat in the Magic Millions Classic at Ballarat with a strong Pakenham victory.

The Astrologist has firmed from $3.60 into $2.90 with TAB’s Trent Langskaill reporting bets of $2500 at $3.40 and $1000 at $3.20.

The Astrologist should get a nice run from gate one and with leading jockey Craig Williams in the saddle looks one of the better bets on the program.

The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott Yao Dash has been a disappointment.

He burst onto the scene winning his first two starts including a victory over subsequent Group 1 winner Funstar at his second start however Yao Dash is without a win since including three average runs this preparation when firmly in the market.

He is a $5 second favourite and is worth betting around.

SUGGESTED BET: THE ASTROLOGIST THE WIN

RANDWICK RACE 7

Big Parade heads the market at $2.30 as he looks to go back-to-back after landing some good bets when winning at Randwick on December 19.

The Mark Newnham trained runner is building a strong record having won four of his first nine career starts and is entitled to be the market leader.

Mo’s Crown was runner up to Big Parade last start and should again be included in the multiples.

The runner who I view as a strong each-way bet is Bandersnatch at $6.50 the win and $2.10 the place.

Bandersnatch is a recent addition to the Hawkes stable who won at Moonee Valley on November 28 before being a beaten favourite at Flemington last start in a race he should have won.

He has drawn nicely and looks a strong each-way play with Tommy Berry in the saddle.

SUGGESTED BET: BANDERSNATCH EACH-WAY

Originally published as Flemington tips, best bets, odds and quaddie analysis from the experts