The Japanese dinner that raised Moonee Valley’s interest in securing Prognosis for Cox Plate
Dinner at a Japanese restaurant in Sydney set the wheels in motion for Moonee Valley to pursue Prognosis for the Cox Plate.
Horse Racing
Don't miss out on the headlines from Horse Racing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
A conversation by coincidence between share plates in a Japanese restaurant in Sydney inspired the recruitment of Cox Plate favourite Prognosis.
Moonee Valley Racing Club staff in early April were in the Harbour City to run a Cox Plate promotion at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale, headlined by the $10m sale of Winx’s daughter.
Legendary Winx completed a likely never-to-be-repeated Cox Plate four-peat in 2015-18.
A fortuitous seating arrangement at Sokyo restaurant, near Darling Harbour, placed The Valley’s racing boss Charlotte Mills next to West Australian trainer Luke Fernie.
• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!
Highly-rated executive Mills had spent 14 years at Racing and Wagering Western Australia before moving back to Melbourne in 2022 as The Valley’s head of racing.
“I happened to see Luke on the table next to me and little did I know Damian Lane was next to Luke,” Mills told Racenet.
“I went up to Damian and said we want Prognosis this year, there was talk about his name last year but no firm commitment to a nomination and he spoke so favourably about him.”
Star jockey Lane, on his way to a first Melbourne premiership at the time, has a big following in Japan since a career-defining 2019 stint in the elite racing jurisdiction.
Lane turned a three-month riding term into Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate triumphs for Japan aboard Mer De Glace and Lys Gracieux.
Lane has won five Group 1s in Japan and competed international for the country’s trainers.
The Valley ramped up the Prognosis bid less than three weeks after the unexpected dinner-turned-Cox Plate recruitment roundtable in Sydney during another promotion in Hong Kong.
Reigning Cox Plate winner Romantic Warrior was a short-priced favourite for the Group 1 QEII Cup at Sha Tin, with Prognosis coincidently on the third line of betting.
Prognosis stepped slowly from the barriers but charged late to run second behind Romantic Warrior, beaten less than half a length.
With Romantic Warrior unlikely to return to Melbourne to defend his crown, the result and trackwork gallop preceding the QEII Cup turned The Valley spotlight on Prognosis.
Shadai Farm, breeders of Prognosis, and the owners, Shade Race Horse Corporation had travelled horses to Europe and America previously but not Australia.
“We wanted Romantic Warrior back, there’s no doubt about that, but looking at Prognosis’s track gallops even, I’m seeing a mimic of what I’ve seen here,” Mills said.
“April to October he’s the same bold, strong horse.”
• Runner by runner: Group 1 Cox Plate form analysis and tips
Mills and MVRC committee member Su-Ann Khaw travelled to Japan after Hong Kong to meet with Shadai connections and Prognosis’s trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida.
“We are delighted, knowing he was the Japanese horse we wanted to pitch for,” Mills said.
“We caught up with Mitsu the trainer and provided him with an invitation, which we don’t do regularly, but we wanted that horse.
“He’d come close to Romantic Warrior twice and that was the perseverance piece, with help of some on the ground contacts in Japan, certainly the positivity shone through.”
Prognosis will aim to join Lys Gracieux as a Japanese winner of the Cox Plate on Saturday.
Horse whisperer improves Prognosis’ barrier manners
Cox Plate favourite Prognosis has thrived under the tutelage of renowned horse educator Julien Welsh but ultimate test will be on Saturday in the $5m Group 1.
Assistant trainer Yasunari Kiyoyama cannot fault the time and effort Pakenham-based Welsh has put into helping Prognosis relax in the barrier education work at Werribee.
A tendency to want to get on with races has resulted in a costly habit, with multiple Group 1-placed Prognosis stepping slowly from the gates.
Prognosis cannot afford to give the likes of Pride Of Jenni too great a start in the Cox Plate on Saturday at The Valley.
“He’s (Welsh) an amazing horseman and the work he has done is quite impressive,” Kiyoyama said.
“As everyone knows Prognosis is very hesitant and nervous in the barriers but day-by-day he’s getting better and better, each day Julien comes and does some work with him.
“He’s going really well… every time he goes to the barriers with Julien he’s getting better and better and now he’s really relaxed in the barriers.
“Of course we don’t know what his behavior is going to be like race day but in practice we have to give him 10 out of 10.”
Prognosis is a $3.40 favourite with Ladbrokes for the Cox Plate from Via Sistina ($4.20) and Pride Of Jenni ($5).
The proximity of the crowd at The Valley to the 2040m start remains an uncertainty on how Prognosis might react behind and inside the stalls.
“We’ve done everything we can do, we just got to leave it to the horse and jockey on the race day,” Kiyoyama said.
“He’s the type of horse that just wants to get on with the job and do it, once out of the gate he’s going to do it anyway.
“He’s going to try his hardest, so we’re trying to make him as relaxed as we can.”
Originally published as The Japanese dinner that raised Moonee Valley’s interest in securing Prognosis for Cox Plate
Sunline jockey’s Cox Plate advice for Pride Of Jenni rider
It’s been 25 years since the legendary Sunline won her first Cox Plate and her jockey has some words of wisdom for Declan Bates ahead of his Cox Plate mission on another frontrunner, Pride Of Jenni.
Five Diamonds fancy gives trainer ‘something to fight for’
Trainer Paul Niceforo was given a second chance at life and his underrated galloper Territory Express continues to give him something to fight for ahead of the $1 million Five Diamonds Prelude.