Eagle Farm races: Best bets and analysis with Nathan Exelby

Racing editor Nathan Exelby and the bookmaking team from Ladbrokes pinpoint the horses to back and the ones to avoid at Eagle Farm.

Scallopini has been supported at double-figure odds to take out the seventh race.

Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at Eagle Farm with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

EAGLE FARM

Track: Good (4)

Weather: Possible shower (1-5mm), 29C

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

Snow Valley, Race 1, $2.60

Gotta Kiss, Race 7, $3.90

Emerald Kingdom/Soxagon, Race 8, $11/$7

VALUE

Acrobatic, Race 5, $13

Phaistos, Race 6, $7.50

MULTIS

Boxed quinella, Race 5: Love Express, Smart ‘N’ Sexy, Acrobatic

Race 9, Quinella, Athiri, Kisukano

LADBROKES SUMMARY

BEST BACKED

Scallopini, Race 7, $18-$14

Snow Valley, Race 1, $2.70-$2.50

Kisukano, Race 9, $3.20-$3

Indian Dreamer, Race 3, $7.50-$6

Elaborate, Race 6, $17-$15

LAY OF THE DAY

Ballistic Boy, Race 6, $2.70

BEST BET

Deep Image, Race 8, $15

RACE 4: MAGIC MILLIONS QTIS HANDICAP

1200M, 2YO, 2.08PM

Nathan says: The Magic Millions is crying out for some new blood and Ranch Hand might be one to put his hand up. Put Mura Mura to the sword at his debut 10 days ago and that filly had previously finished third in the $1m Golden Gift. It’s as strong a formline as any heading to the Gold Coast in a fortnight and gives Nash Rawiller a great chance to make a winning return to Queensland. Gleneagles gives us the chance to check out the formline of MM favourite She’s All Class after not enjoying the best run behind that filly on debut.

Ladbrokes say: Ranch Hand has been very solid at $1.55. He’s currently $12 to win the Magic Millions. The only spec we’ve seen to beat him is the Bryan and Daniel Guy trained Golden Eighty, who won on debut before the first up run behind Alpine Edge. If Ranch Hand brings the same form as his debut north, he’s hard to beat. The only one we give a hope to help us out is Illiciate Affairs, who was impressive on debut.

The play: Ranch Hand to atone for stablemate Shaquero’s flop last week.

RACE 5: MM INSURANCE BENCHMARK 75

1400M, BM75 HCP, 2.48PM

Nathan says: Love Express took care of the three-year-olds winning at Doomben last time and they look his biggest dangers again here. It was a nice win that day and 1400m on the bigger track will hold no fears with Brad Stewart doing the steering. The Edmonds stable felt Smart ‘N’ Sexy was too fresh when disappointing first up. Should be better today at a track where she was a stakes winner last season. Tipping Acrobatic to be the big improver. He had form around Kisukano last prep, was okay first up without a lot of luck, then disappointed last time in a hot race. This suits much better and he can bounce back on the big track at good odds.

Ladbrokes say: Smart ‘N’ Sexy is $4.20 into $4. There’s a spec for the stablemate Potro Duro ($21-$19). Nothingforthepress, even though he goes up in weight, looks a big price to us at $26. Drawn to get a dream run and only 2L off Gee Tee Tee last time. Don’t mind that formline.

The play: Box quinella Love Express, Smart ‘N’ Sexy and Acrobatic

RACE 6: MM SHOOT OUT

2206M, QTY HCP, 3.28PM

Nathan says: Ballistic Boy has been super this prep and now gets out to a trip where he peaked last season. Logic says he’s hard to beat, but he is bumping into some tough older horses here and is being asked to carry the 59kg going up sharply in trip. He may well be too good for them again, but at the odds, have to have something on Phaistos. He just couldn’t reel in Get Stuck In at Doomben after that horse had a picnic in front. That was his first middle distance attempt and it’s reasonable to think the James Cummings trained gelding can be better for the experience. Should sit in the first three and get his chance.

Ladbrokes say: Elaborate is $17 into $15. Ballistic Boy has been $2.60 out to $2.70. Going for the hat trick Ballistic Boy, but up in distance against a few seasoned stayers so we are happy to take him on. We give a good chance to Barade with Jimmy Byrne aboard at $9.

The play: Phaistos at $7.50/$2.50 is an enticing play.

Gotta Kiss (right) gets her chance to win a good race. Picture: Trackside Photography

RACE 7: VO ROGUE PLATE

1400M, 3YO G3, 4.08PM

Nathan says: The headliners for the MM Guineas may not be here, but there’s still huge depth in this race, where you can make a case for any number of runners. That said, Gotta Kiss surely gets her chance to win a good race here. She was fantastic over this course behind Rothfire in the winter and that’s the strongest formline any of these bring to this race. She doesn’t look to have gone backwards this season and her effort to run second to Isotope last time from an impossible position was very good. Steph Thornton should have her a lot closer from the better barrier on Saturday. Palladas the big danger off a last start stunner over this course.

Ladbrokes say: We’ve seen a spec for Black Duke with Nash Rawiller up ($26-$21). A good go early for Starosa. She was $12 into $9.50, but has now drifted back to $11. Gotta Kiss is favourite, but is $3.80 out to $3.90. She looks short enough in a deep field, so we’re going with Rogue Rocker ($16), who has been terrific at his past couple and has upside.

The play: Gotta Kiss to make the best of better luck.

RACE 8: THE BUFFERING

1400M, SWP, 4.48PM

Nathan says: The Lough Neagh proved the right lead-up for this race last year with Deep Image doing the double. Looking to the same race again this year with Soxagon and Emerald Kingdom. Soxagon overcame the bad gate to win well there and he’s a proven Eagle Farm 1400m performer. So too is Emerald Kingdom, where you can argue his career best came over this course early in the year. He will be on speed and he was right back in form last time. Luke Currie has enjoyed great recent success in Queensland and hopefully there’s more to come here.

Ladbrokes say: We’ve seen a good move for Scallopini, who is $18 into $14. There’s some money for Emerald Kingdom as well ($12-$11). Desert Lord has been unwanted. We went up $4.60 and he’s still favourite but out to $5 and not an ounce of love so far. Pretty keen on Deep Image to go back-to-back in this race. Super behind Jonker in the Keith Noud and maybe just flat last time. Nice break for this and can run a race at $15.

The play: Emerald Kingdom ($11) and Soxagon ($7) can both be backed at the prices.

Kisukano expected to make a winning at Eagle Farm. Picture: Trackside Photography

RACE 9: MM NUDGEE STAKES

1200M, F&M SWP LR, 5.25PM

Nathan says: Kisukano racked up a stack of strong ratings last prep, often under big weights, with some rating outlets having her in the list of Australia’s best fillies this season. Michael Nolan has been able to give her a good break and we know she’s a bomb fresh. Off the inside she can be wherever she’s comfortable and then her class can kick in for the run home. Athiri looks the danger. She was a disappointment for a long time but her last four starts are in line with what her early form suggested she might be capable of. Expecting one of the two to win. Boomtown Lass goes in all exotics, as she’s just so consistent.

Ladbrokes say: Another ripper race. Wild Vixen is $16 into $14. Kisukano was $3.20 after the scratching of Tailleur and has since firmed up to $3. We have a lot of time for Kisukano, she’s a very talented filly, but we can’t tip favourites in the last race, so we’re going to forgive Jami Lady for her last start run and give her a hope at $17.

The play: Kisukano to make a triumphant return.

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

“We’ve done enough work with him to go there with a good level of confidence. He’s really starting to get out to his pet trip and I would like to think he will be hard to beat.”

— Chris Anderson, Ballistic Boy, Race 6

“She worked with Scallopini and went to the line with plenty in hand on Tuesday. I’m not worried about the four weeks between runs going to 1400m.”

— Steve O’Dea, Gotta Kiss, Race 7

“A really small percentage of horses win from that gate and I thought it was a pretty brave effort. He looks good and he has a really good formline.”

— Kelly Schweida, Racecourse Road, Race 2

“He picked up a lot quicker than I expected after a hard win. The run overall was one of his best performances. I’m sure he will be very competitive.”

— Chris Munce, Stampe, Race 8

“I thought he trialled beautifully. If he can sit second pair and have the last crack down the middle of the track, I think he’s going good enough to be hard to beat. Robbie (Fradd) was pretty bullish after his work (Tuesday).”

— Trent Edmonds, Grey Missile, Race 2

“She was off her head, really fresh and mad before the race, quite naughty in the enclosure. She might have used up a lot of nervous energy and just raced way too fresh. She likes Eagle Farm.”

— Toby Edmonds, Smart ‘N’ Sexy, Race 5

“Indian Dreamer, I know the barrier stinks, but he goes back anyway. Once he gets to the outside he can really finish hard.”

— Toby Edmonds, Indian Dreamer, Race 3

“He relaxed beautifully (last start). He will roll forward, he looks to control this race. He’s starting to get up in the weights, but he’s probably earned it and he loves Eagle Farm, which is a plus.”

— Tony Gollan, Get Stuck In, Race 6

“Her last run was really good. She gets better into a prep. She’s peaking now and I think she will have a flashing light on her. Whether she can win I’m not sure, but she’s right on song for Magic Millions day.”

— Tony Gollan, Krone, Race 8

Originally published as Eagle Farm races: Best bets and analysis with Nathan Exelby