SuperCoach Plus: The stats that should shape your round 12 trades
Our very wordy KFC SuperCoach NRL expert Rob Sutherland does a very very deep dive into the halfback position for SC Plus subscribers.
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Find somewhere comfortable, and make sure you’re hydrated, because Rob Sutherland has taken the deepest of deep dives into the playmaker options you need to consider when trading ahead of round 12 of the 2021 season.
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DO TWO HALVES MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF SENSE?
Unless you have been living under a KFC SuperCoach NRL rock you will be aware that Nathan Cleary is going rather well in 2021. And yes, ‘rather well’, is my attempt to humorously undersell the incredible 118PPG average currently boasted by the first million-dollar man in the history of the game.
You may also be aware that young Rooster Sam Walker seems to have hit a bit of a wall – in both a literal and figurative sense. There was the literal wall that was Tevita Pangai Jr in round 11 (yes dear pedant I am aware that Pangai is in fact a ‘figurative wall’ because A) he is a human and thus B) he is not a wall, but I am taking my artistic licence and exercising it to the full), and there is the figurative wall that is the fatigue and general wear and tear that any young, slightly built, half will experience in his first year in the NRL.
Walker is bleeding cash (figuratively), the team is falling down around him due to injury and suspension and he doesn’t play in the first bye. It’s time to sell.
And so the mind turns to these questions:
1. Do we need a second halfback, and if so
2. Is there a second halfback worth buying and keeping as a top-17 player, or
3. Can I have a bob each-way and buy a halfback for a little while who I intend to sell later?
I’m someone who bets with the intention to not lose rather than the intention to win; a losing strategy as any pro punter will tell you. And so I’m backing the each way option, but I have no editor in this article so you are going to have to wade through many, many, words before I get to that point.
There is a sense of omnipotence that comes with answering your own questions in a forum in which nobody gets to point out your errors (*reminder* turn off comments on this one) and so I shall turn to the first question posited above – Do I need a second halfback?
In a word, no. In another, maybe. Because it’s always good to have a backup plan. If Cleary is injured for anything less than two weeks you will want to hold him rather than burn a trade to move him out and then another to bring him back. And injury may not be the only risk to Cleary’s availability. The pessimists among us no doubt fear that Penrith’s incredible run of form raises the spectre that when a top-two finish is locked up, Coach Clearly will rest King Cleary to ensure his linchpin is fresh for the finals.
But Penrith locked up a top-two finish pretty early last year and Cleary played out the full 80 of every game that season, well every game in which he was not serving a TikTok related ban.
And Penrith have locked up many a game this season by halftime; by quarter time if I were being honest – and if ‘quarter time’ were a thing in the NRL, which it isn’t, but as I say – no editor. And yet, no matter the lead held, the victory guaranteed, Coach Cleary has kept King Cleary on the field for the full 80 minutes. This despite having a more than serviceable halves deputy in Tyrone May sitting on the pine. So let’s draw a line through the ‘Cleary may be rested’ narrative.
The injury narrative, well that’s harder to answer isn’t it. There is no doubt that Cleary is tough, Cleary is durable. He did miss one game this year as a result of a concussion but that is the only game which injury has precluded Cleary from playing in the past two seasons.
This year is a little different to the last of course, with Origin back in the middle of the season, not some awkward post-grand-final grab for ratings as it was in 2020. And there has to be some chance that the Panthers rest Cleary around the Origin period.
And so the answer to this questions is – yes there is some value in having a backup halfback to Cleary, but it is qualified value with the value most likely lying in Origin cover.
But the ‘backup half with Origin cover’ is the each-way bet and that’s question 3 so before I get to that let’s look at question two – is there a top-17 halfback not named Cleary?
Outside of Cleary and Walker there are just four halfbacks currently boasting a 5RA (that’s five round average for those new to the jargon) of 65+. If you are looking for a legitimate second halfback option it has to be someone you could play in your scoring 17 over the back end of the season and I feel that a reasonably reliable 65+ is a minimum test in that area. There’s also one with a 5RA of 64 (Daly Cherry-Evans) and I’m going to throw in a bit on him too because 1) his pedigree deserves it and 2) his team is in tremendous form with a good draw.
1) Jahrome Hughes, HFB, $714,400, 5RA: 100, Ownership: 5.2%
The Storm halfback opened his 2021 account with a lacklustre 3RA of 38. It was a tough run of games to be fair with Melbourne starting against South Sydney (who were good back then), the Eels and the Panthers. In the seven games since, Hughes’ worst game was a 52 against the Bulldogs and he has cracked triple figures thrice. In his past five games, Hughes has scored four tries, assisted seven, made seven linebreaks, the same number of linebreak assists and averaged just shy of five tackle busts per game. All while averaging a rather solid base of 29PPG. There is very much to like about a man who can do this all while being a massive POD with 5% ownership. With no Origin issues (Hughes is a Kiwi) and providing cover in the first bye buying into the Storm playmaker would appear to make sense. The stumbling point is of course the price, $714K is an awful lot of coin to find. And if were to be critical it is that Hughes has gone on similar 3/5 round runs before and then reverted back to solid 40-55 scores. I can see the appeal and if his form continues Hughes is the kind of high-producing POD that wins you the SC cash but buyer beware.
2) Kodi Nikorima, HFB|5/8, $618,800, 5RA: 73, Ownership: 6.7%
From 2018-20 Nikorima averaged near enough 75MPG and 48PPG so what is one to make of his superb 2021 form? New coach, new boots? Who knows, who cares, it’s working. Nikorima has scored the second most points of any player available at HFB and while he hasn’t been Mr Consistent with four sub-40 scores he has made up for the low games with four scores of 95+ including 134 against the Raiders – when they were the good Raiders! The obvious point of difference for Nikorima in 2021 has been that he has taken on the goalkicking responsibilities and made more than a decent go of it slotting 36 from 43 which has added almost 12PPG to his average. No help in the first bye, Nikorima would nonetheless provide a valuable piece in Rd 17 and his DPP would be invaluable should one of your 5/8’s cop a long-term injury. It should also be noted that the Warriors draw over the final six rounds is pretty kind – one I could consider.
3) Jamal Fogarty, HFB, $500,100, 5RA: 67, Ownership: 2.9%
The Titans halfback has hit a nice little purple patch of late scoring 59, 68, 91, 50 and 67 in his past five games. Another with the goalkicking duties, Fogarty does not boast the attacking stats of those above him, he has scored just one try and assisted five in his past five games, but the base is solid and he has been very accurate from the kicking tee. Priced at just $500K and playing in the first bye, Fogarty makes some appeal though I am wary of a draw which from round 13 reads: Storm/Roosters/Manly/Raiders/Eels and ultimately I do not consider him a top-17 player.
4) Mitch Moses, HFB, $520,700, 5RA: 65, Ownership: 6.5%
Now we turn to the mercurial Mitch Moses whose 5RA of 65 looks quite good, but if this column were being written last week before his sub-par 32 point effort against the Sea Eagles was flying high with a 5RA of 76PPG. Another valuable first bye player, the problem for those keen to buy into Moses is that what he is doing really well for his team – ie creating scoring opportunities with the equal second most try assists of any halfback in the game – he is doing in a very unfriendly KFC SuperCoach NRL manner. Moses has 13 try assists this year, but just two linebreak assists. It’s his pinpoint kicking that is creating opportunities and as any SuperCoach knows those try assists off the boot are just not the same as those created with a pass. Another with short term bye appeal, and a pretty kind Rd 13-15 draw which reads Knights/Tigers/Bulldogs, ultimately I feel Moses falls just outside the ‘keeper’ range.
5) Daly Cherry-Evans, HFB, $496,300, 5RA: 64, Ownership: 2.8%
And now we come to the Cherry on the bottom – of this list. DCE has been the ultimate rocks or diamonds halfback this year with four sub-30 scores and four of 80+. The return of Tom Trbojevic has lifted every other Sea Eagle to greater heights it seems though for Cherry-Evans the Turbo thermals have been a rocky ride. The two combined beautifully in rounds seven and ten but in the other games Tommy’s influence seems to have dulled DCE’s dominance. No help in the first bye and sure to play Origin I don’t consider DCE a legitimate buy purchase and really only put him on the list so I could use the hilarious ‘Cherry on the bottom’ line.
The answer to question two is, ‘yeah there’s two – but they’ll cost ya.’ And now, 1,700 words later we can turn to the ‘bob each-way’ option which I am rather partial to.
The player in question is of course Matt Burton from the Panthers. Burton, a playmaker playing out of position at centre, put on an absolute show for his hometown fans in Dubbo last week scoring three tries and assisting another as Penrith put 56 points past the Rabbitohs.
For SuperCoach that bumper attacking effort netted 123 points and a BE of 22. The Panthers play the Bulldogs, at Panthers Stadium, this week and while I think the Dogs are far from the worst defensive outfit out wide I do think we can expect the seemingly unstoppable Panthers to put 30 points plus on and Burton has to be some chance to get among that. Then comes the Rd 13 bye and with Nathan Cleary an Origin certainty and Panthers five-eighth Jarome Luai closing in on NSW selection too, Burton will slot into the halves for Penrith against the Wests Tigers in a game where he is a strong chance to have a negative BE.
With dual HFB|5/8 eligibility, strong job security, Round 13 bye coverage and almost guaranteed to increase in price there is a lot to be said for buying into Burton this week.
Just don’t go expecting 123 points each week. The Panthers have many mouths to feed and many paths to the tryline. Burton has one other triple figure score this year but he’s also scored 34 SC points in a game where the Panthers scored five tries (against the Sea Eagles in round eight) and just 21 points in a game where they scored eight tries (Titans round 10) so we may not get a winner each week – then again we may, that’s the glory of KFC SuperCoach NRL.
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