KFC SuperCoach NRL teams analysis Round 12, 2021

KFC SuperCoach Editor Tom Sangster runs his rule over the Round 12 teams, revealing one glaring sell.

WINNERS

* Brandon Smith – Harry Grant’s loss is Brandon Smith’s gain. Grant is set to miss at least the next two weeks – and likely State of Origin I – due to a hamstring injury. That means in the immediate future Smith plays hooker, where he scored 106 last week. With a break even of 25, he at the very least makes money, covers Round 13 and produces some decent scores along the way. But a note of caution, take out the attacking stats last week (including three try assists) and he scored mid-40s. Craig Bellamy clearly doesn’t trust him to play 80 minutes in the No. 9.

* Nicho Hynes – Obviously the smart KFC SuperCoaches got on last week, and the really smart KFC SuperCoaches got on five weeks ago when Ryan Papenhuyzen went down for the first time. Hynes has averaged an outrageous 116.6 in that period and received another boost this week with confirmation Papenhuyzen (concussion) is out until Round 15-16, meaning Hynes will be a top 17 player for much longer than expected. At the very least he’ll make mass cash before a Round 15-16 sell with KFC SuperCoach Plus predicting he will rise by about $125,000 in that time. And if the injuries continue at the Storm, he’s a season-long keeper. Yes, $725,000 is a lot, but I’d still pay up.

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Sam Walker is a popular sell (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

* Keenan Palasia – Most popular cheapie this week and third most popular player overall. Strong on debut, playing the full 80 minutes for 81 points. That score included a try and linebreak but the pure base of 42 is still handy for an edge player. Don’t get expectations too high but we could be looking at a Jordan Riki type of output, which is hardly amazing but would still lead to a rise of $200,000 for Palaisia given he starts considerably cheaper. The looming returns of Riki, Alex Glenn and Matt Lodge next week are issues so the safe bet is to wait a week.

* Matt Burton – Most purchased player this week as KFC SuperCoaches look to cash in Sam Walker. While Burton is not a keeper until the end, he offers great coverage for the upcoming bye (when he’ll start in the halves with Nathan Cleary and maybe Jarome Luai in Origin) and KFC SuperCoach Plus predicts he’ll make $70,000 along the way.

LOSERS

* Sam Walker – Named but still on the “losers” list. While Walker has no doubt been one of the cheapies of the year, the arguments on why to sell are emphatic – rumours of resting, no Round 13 coverage, three-round average of 36, BE 126, projected drop of $40,000 after $91,000 last week and good replacements on offer. Time to take that $364,500 and run.

* Joseph Suaalii – The much-hyped youngster misses out for the Roosters due to the return of Josh Morris (back) after a solid-but-not-spectacular debut. The 33 per cent who already own him should no doubt hang tight. Those who don’t should wait for round 15-17, when he could become a perfectly timed cheapie for the final bye.

* Angus Crichton – Out for two weeks after a failed trip to the judiciary. He’s therefore the sixth most sold player. That said, Sangster’s Paradise have about six bigger problems to deal with so Crichton likely stays for the entire season.

* Victor Radley – Also failed at the judiciary and ruled out for five weeks. The eighth most sold player this week after being one of the most purchased last round.

* Tyson Gamble – The most popular buy in KFC SuperCoach just two weeks ago, Gamble has averaged just 15 since and is now suspended for one round. While the price rises have all but frozen (BE 54) he’s a hold in the hope he covers Round 13, then offload as soon as humanly possible.

* Jason Taumalolo – Out for the next two weeks – for a high tackle suspension this week and the bye next week. But Lolo is starting to find his feet under the new regime of Todd Payten and will no doubt be a popular purchase for the Round 17 bye. Hopefully after more price drops (BE 116) following last week’s sin-binning.

* Kurt Capewell – The popular back rower (23 per cent ownership) was already a sell given looming Origin representation, but this week’s one-round suspension locks it in.

BRONCOS (Yuggera and Turrbal)

TEAMS COMMENT: Broncos coach Kevin Walters will roll out another young gun with boom back-rower TC Robati named to debut. With Matt Lodge suspended, Rhys Kennedy starts at prop with Robati joining the bench. Tyson Gamble is also suspended, replaced in the halves by Anthony Milford, who gets his third chance at first grade this year. Herbie Farnworth (hamstring) returns at centre with Dale Copley dropping out of the 17.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Plenty happening. Tevita Pangai Jnr is the ninth most purchased player. He is one of the few Round 13 forward buys who could be a keeper all season and therefore has serious appeal. But is he now a NSW contender given all the injuries and suspensions? Albert Kelly is the seventh most purchased player as KFC SuperCoaches look to realise the money made by Sam Walker. Thomas Flegler and Rhys Kennedy are also worth looking into as money-makers. See Tyson Gamble and Keenan Palasia analysis above.

STORM (Wurundjeri)

TEAMS COMMENT: Come into the clash off a five-day turnaround. Jahrome Hughes (calf) returns after a late withdrawal last week with Cooper Johns dropping out of the 17. Kenny Bromwich (hamstring) will sit out another week. Craig Bellamy says Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion) may not return until Round 15 or 16, ruling him out of NSW contention. Cameron Munster (foot) again misses out but is hopeful of playing Origin I. But it’s a different story for Harry Grant (hamstring) who is resigned to missing the Origin opener.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Jahrome Hughes is hardly the worst for Round 13 coverage. He’s bloody expensive at $714,000 and I personally feel there are no genuine keepers at halfback worth owning other than Nathan Cleary, but he is the third most popular replacement for Walker behind Matt Burton and Albert Kelly. The draw against Broncos, Titans, Warriors and Tigers certainly helps. See Brandon Smith and Nicho Hynes analysis above.

COWBOYS (Wulgurukaba)

TEAMS COMMENT: Jason Taumalolo has copped a one-week ban and is replaced at lock by Coen Hess, who returns from concussion. Connolly Lemuelu (thumb) also misses out after undergoing surgery on Tuesday, replaced by returning young gun Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (ankle). Peter Hola and Corey Jensen join the bench in place of Lachlan Burr (suspension) and Francis Molo (concussion).

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Heilum Luki was strong on debut with 57 and is a cheapie to keep an eye on for Round 14. He scored a try with linebreak, although the fact he was limited to 24 minutes is a worry. Last week’s most purchased cheapie Javid Bowen has retained his spot despite being branded a “trap” by myself and just about everyone in the office. He rose by $45,000 but the price rises will flatten out quite quickly unless he scores. Valentine Holmes is the fifth most purchased player despite the looming Origin series. He’s a definite option for head-to-head players given only Brian To’o and Reuben Garrick have more points at CTW this year. See Jason Taumalolo analysis above.

WARRIORS (Aotearoa)

TEAMS COMMENT: No changes to the side that beat the Tigers, sticking with last week’s late change of young matchwinner Reece Walsh at fullback and Roger Tui-vasa-Sheck in a roaming wing role. Tohu Harris and Ben Murdoch-Masila rotated positions from lock to right edge during the Tigers game which is expected to continue.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Tohu Harris is a MUST for Round 14 and a hold for the rest of the season. Clear the decks. Reece Walsh is clearly and freak and therefore the fourth most popular player this week as KFC SuperCoaches look to sell Papenhuyzen. Walsh scored 129 in his first game starting at No. 1, unseating none other than former Dally M winner Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. However, available only at fullback and with the bye in Round 13, he’s hard to fit in.

WESTS TIGERS (Dharwal & Eora)

TEAMS COMMENT: Tommy Talau switches to centre to replace Joey Leilua (concussion) with James Roberts returning from a pectoral injury on the wing. Jake Simpkin drops off the bench with Tom Amone claiming the No. 14 jumper for his club debut.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Should be a popular team given Round 13 coverage but few players jump out. Daine Laurie is an obvious hold for the bye, but likely a sell soon after as the Tigers have upcoming games against the Panthers, Eels, Storm and Rabbitohs. David Nofoaluma is going along OK but hardly a must. Adam Doueihi dropped back to the back last week in his second game at centre. Popular cheapie Jake Simpkin has been dropped. Shawn Blore is struggling for minutes. Meanwhile, big Stefano Utoikamanu is the seventh most sold player after missing the 17 for the last fortnight. However, Sangster’s Paradise will hang on in desperate hope he gets a run for next week’s bye.

DRAGONS (Dharwal & Yuin)

TEAMS COMMENT: Recent signing Gerard Beale will make his club debut at centre. Talatau Amone moves to the bench with Adam Clune dropping out of the 17. Tariq Sims (suspension) is a big inclusion after missing last week. He replaces Josh Kerr (shoulder charge) who will miss a week through suspension. Cody Ramsey and last start debutant Jaiyden Hunt have been named despite concussions last week. However, Max Feagai misses out after his weekend head knock and is replaced on the wing by Brayden Wiliame, who returns from a calf issue.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Cody Ramsey has been named and is set to play despite a concussion last week. He ended the round as the second most popular cheapie after Copes’ shout out in the Cheapie Bible and looked good for 24 points in 40 minutes before being knocked out of the game. Jackson Ford scored 60 in 60 minutes on the weekend and is one to keep an eye one, but he has serious job security issues with Josh Kerr (suspension) back next week and D-Day for Jack De Belin this Friday. Max Feagai was looming as one of the better cheapies for Round 13 after 67 on the weekend, but will miss at least this round through concussion.

Stephen Crichton shifts to fullback for the Panthers against the Bulldogs. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

PANTHERS (Dharug)

TEAMS COMMENT: The Panthers continue without Dylan Edwards after he missed the Rabbitohs game due to a hamstring injury, which sees Stephen Crichton continue at fullback and Paul Momirovski at centre. Kurt Capewell (suspension) is out for a week. He is replaced in the starting back row by Liam Martin, with Moses Leota (shoulder) returning from injury on the bench.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Congratulations to Nathan Cleary, who is officially the first million dollar player in KFC SuperCoach history. And with a BE of -40, he is predicted to reach uncharted territory at $1.1 million next week. Charlie Staines is the third most sold player despite covering Round 13 bye and looming match-ups against the Bulldogs, Tigers and Sharks. The BE is 77 so hopefully we get a few more games out of him and maintain most of the $136,000 rise. That said, the return of “Glue Hands” Paul Momirovski inside him is hardly ideal. Owners of Panthers players will have eyes glued on the NSW Origin team announcement on Sunday night with Freddy to make season-defining KFC SuperCoach calls on Brian To’o, Jarome Luai, Isaah Yeo and even Apisai Koroisau. See Matt Burton and Kurt Capewell analysis above.

BULLDOGS (Bidjigal/Bediagal)

TEAMS COMMENT: Skipper Josh Jackson (calf) and prop Jack Hetherington (suspension) are big inclusions. Jackson returns at lock, pushing Adam Elliott to the second row and Chris Smith (suspension) out of the side. Hetherington returns at starting prop, relegating Ava Seumanufagai to the bench. Sione Katoa (suspension) is replaced at hooker by youngster Jackson Topine.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Put Luke Thompson high on the wish list for Round 14-17, just behind Tohu Harris and alongside Jason Taumalolo. His base of 56 is as good as it gets for an FRF available player, while he has the second best average in the position behind only Isaiah Papali’i. Also add two Bulldogs cheapies to the round 14 radar in centre Aaron Schoupp (solid 31 on debut) and Matt Doorey (54 in 77 minutes as a starting backrower).

RABBITOHS (Gadigal)

TEAMS COMMENT: Cameron Murray (ankle) returns at lock and is hoping to prove himself for Origin, with Liam Knight dropping out. Josh Mansour (concussion) misses out after a heavy head knock, replaced by Taane Milne on the wing. Jai Arrow starts in the front row with Thomas Burgess moving to the interchange. Jacob Host (quad) returns in the second row with Jaydn Su’A dropped.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Not a particularly relevant team at the moment given they don’t cover Round 13. But Cody Walker becomes a serious option from Round 14 if he misses out on an Origin spot — which looks increasingly likely — especially with a dream run against Knights, Broncos, Tigers, Cowboys, Bulldogs, Warriors and Dragons. And while Latrell Mitchell and Damien Cook are highly likely for Origin, they aren’t locked in until you see them on Freddy’s team sheet. I also quite like Matt Burton to Adam Reynolds in Round 14 given the amount of kicks Reynolds will take at goals and covering 17.

EELS (Burramattagal)

TEAMS COMMENT: Reagan Campbell-Gillard (suspension) is out for one week. He is replaced at starting prop by Oregon Kaufusi with Marata Niukore returning from suspension on the bench. Waqa Blake and Ryan Matterson are expected to overcome knocks to play.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Only a few weeks ago the Eels provided plenty of must-have buys for Round 13. But it’s falling apart rather quickly. Ryan Matterson is now a genuine chance for Origin following Angus Crichton’s two-week suspension, on top of being spelled last week for a very un-Matto-like 59 minutes. Meanwhile, Ryan Papenhuyzen’s injury means Clint Gutherson is a serious Origin contender in either the 14 or 18. But one player KFC SuperCoaches needn’t worry about is Isaiah Papali’i, whose improvement this year is simply insane. Only Nathan Cleary has scored more points in KFC SuperCoach this year.

ROOSTERS (Gadigal)

TEAMS COMMENT: Huge night at the judiciary with Victor Radley to miss either two or five weeks, while Angus Crichton will miss either two or zero. With Radley out, Isaac Liu moves from prop to lock and Siosiua Taukeiaho is promoted to start at prop. Daniel Suluka Fifita joins the bench. Josh Morris’ return from a back problem sees teen sensation Joseph Suaalii drop to the reserves. Sam Walker has been named despite rumours of resting.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: James Tedesco has rewarded those who held, scoring 96 and 137 in the last two weeks. Most importantly, the runs are back, averaging 15 in that time. This compared to his lean trot for the previous three weeks where he averaged just seven runs and 37 points per game. See Angus Crichton, Victor Radley, Joseph Suaalii and Sam Walker analysis above.

RAIDERS (Ngunnawal)

TEAMS COMMENT: Jack Wighton and Josh Hodgson (both suspension) are important inclusions. Wighton takes his customary five-eighth spot, while Hodgson has been named on the bench, with Tom Starling (ankle) to start despite an injury last week. George Williams has been granted an immediate release with Sam Williams the new halfback. Jordan Rapana (hamstring) returns on the wing in place of Semi Valemei.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Raiders are barely a factor at the moment due to poor form and the fact they miss Round 13. However, Corey Harawira-Naera has played 80 minutes every game and is averaging just under 60. Hopefully he’s still a value pick for Round 14, when he’s predicted to cost mid $400,000s for that round. Bailey Simonsson is an obvious entrant on the most sold list this week after a handy-ish rise of almost $100,000. With no Round 13 coverage and BE of 48, it makes absolute sense.

SHARKS (Gweagal)

1. Will Kennedy, 2. Connor Tracey, 3. Will Chambers, 4. Jesse Ramien, 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo, 6. Matt Moylan, 7. Shaun Johnson, 8. Aiden Tolman, 9. Blayke Brailey, 10. Aaron Woods, 11. Briton Nikora, 12. Wade Graham, 13. Toby Rudolf

Bench: 14. Braydon Trindall, 15. Siosifa Talakai, 16. Jack Williams, 17. Andrew Fifita

Reserves: 18. Chad Townsend, 19. Billy Magoulias, 20. Franklin Pele, 21. Jenson Taumoepeau

TEAMS COMMENT: Josh Dugan, Mawene Hiroti and Teig Wilton are all out suspended, replaced by Ronaldo Mulitalo, Jesse Ramien and Siosifa Talakai. Shaun Johnson (hamstring) returns in the halves in place of Chad Townsend, who drops out of the 17. Andrew Fifita (hamstring) returns on the bench.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Teig Wilton is a definite sell after being suspended for a week. But hopefully you cashed in a few rounds ago when he peaked at a $160K rise. The likes of Jesse Ramien and Shaun Johnson could become relevant from rounds 14-17, but there’s plenty of water to go under the bridge between now and then.

TITANS (Yugambeh)

TEAMS COMMENT: Top gun David Fifita (suspension) is back after a two-week absence, pushing Beau Fermor to the bench and Sam Stone out of the squad. Patrick Herbert (calf) returns at centre in place of Esan Marsters. Ash Taylor has been named on the extended bench. He is close to returning from a hip injury and could replace Tanah Boyd in the halves on game day. Tyrone Peachey and Herman Ese’ese both remain unavailable due to suspension.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: He’s been one of the most sold players over the past few weeks, but Tino Fa’asuamaleaui finally produced the sort of game we expected from him at the start of the season with 86. Brian Kelly put himself well-and-truly in Round 13 POD calculations with 91 on the weekend.

Kalyn Ponga is back for the Knights. Picture: Kelly Defina/Getty Images

KNIGHTS (Awabakal)

TEAMS COMMENT: Welcome back two big guns in fullback Kalyn Ponga (groin) and centre Bradman Best (hamstring). Ponga comes in at fullback with Kurt Mann shifting to the halves and Blake Green dropped. Best replaces last week’s debutant Simi Sasagi at centre.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: Connor Watson and Mitchell Barnett are causing serious headaches for KFC SuperCoaches as they essentially play half a game each in the middle of the field. Both are leaking cash fast but should be held for Round 13 coverage, when minutes should improve with Tyson Frizell on Origin duty. Bradman Best returns from injury this week and is a sneaky POD for next round if he shows some form, especially given his impressive base stats.

SEA EAGLES (Gayamaygal & Garagal)

TEAMS COMMENT: Second-rower Haumole Olakau’atu (hand) is out, replaced by Karl Lawton in the starting side, although Curtis Sironen (knee) has been named to return on the bench and could easily be promoted into the starting role. Toafofoa Sipley (dangerous contact) and Lawton (high tackle) took $1150-$1500 fines and are free to play. Dylan Walker (hamstring) is expected back after the bye.

KFC SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS: The second top point scorer at CTW this year is … drum roll … Reuben Garrick. Literally nobody would have predicted that at the start of the year. Tommy Turbo has the highest average in KFC SuperCoach this year by 10 points per game and surely non-owners find it impossible to watch Manly games. Martin Taupau has brought back the offload with 46 points from them in the past four weeks and is definitely on the radar for rounds 14-17. Jason Saab (BE 47) is an obvious sell either this week or next after seemingly peaking at a rise of almost $250,000.