State of Origin back-up rater: Which SuperCoach players will and won’t play after Origin
We’ve crunched the numbers including back-up history, likely minutes and turnaround time to rank the chances of Origin players taking the field for their clubs.
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Origin players feature heavily amongst the best NRL SuperCoach players with over half of the top 20 averaging players either Origin incumbents or highly likely Origin hopefuls.
For this reason, to hold or not to hold amongst the Origin class is the pertinent question.
We’ve done the deepest of dives to help you decide.
ORIGIN BACK-UP RATER: MOST LIKELY TO LEAST LIKELY
Harry Grant ($672,800; 31% rostered)
Grant feels like he’s been playing Origin since forever, such has been his impact for Queensland. He’s played just eight Origin games though and has the benefit of sharing the demands of playing Origin at hooker with Ben Hunt.
Grant has backed up on every opportunity he has been able to (seven from seven) albeit at times playing off the bench for reduced minutes. That said, he has scored well off the bench, and then scored poorly playing the full 80 when backing up too. He has backed up after a three day turnaround on three occasions, and on four day turnarounds on four occasions.
With two three day turnarounds and one four day turnaround, but all games being in Melbourne, as well as his responsibility as captain of the Melbourne Storm coupled with long term injury to Cam Munster, this should see him continue to be heavily relied upon to play as much as he can for the Storm this season.
Likelihood of backing up – 90%
Reece Robson ($592,300; 13% rostered)
Robson was a surprise selection to some but those who watched him closely in the past two seasons would be pleased to see the tough, unrelenting Robson given a shot. He is somewhat of an ironman, playing through 80 minutes every week at a high workrate and he has taken his attacking game up another level this year.
Robson has only two Origin games to his name, backing up four days after Game 2 last year to play 68 minutes for a score of 48; and also backing up three days after Game 3 last year to play the full 80 for a score of 46.
The draw is relatively kind for the Cowboys after Origin games, featuring a three day turnaround in Townsville, a four day turnaround in Penrith, and a four day turnaround in Townsville
Likelihood of backing up – 90%
Valentine Holmes ($684,200; 25% rostered)
Val Holmes has been part of the furniture of the Maroons for years, stretching back to 2017. He’s also been one of the most durable CTW options for years, and also ‘part of the furniture’ for many SuperCoach teams as a result. He’s been in rather indifferent NRL form but his SuperCoach pedigree continues to shine regardless of his on-field performances. With the Cowboys firmly on the edge of the top eight, they can ill-afford to have Holmes sitting out too many games.
Holmes has backed up on 12 out of 13 opportunities (noting three of those games were Sunday Origins for Game 2 of those series), with his sole game not backing up coming from a two day turnaround. He has backed up on two day turnarounds on three other occasions, as well as three day turnarounds on two occasions and four day turnarounds on four occasions. The remaining opportunities were on five and six day turnarounds following Sunday Origin games.
As mentioned above with Cotter, the 2024 schedule is somewhat favourable and given his importance as goalkicker as well as Holmes’ general durability and track record so far in his career, he has a pretty high likelihood of backing up.
Likelihood of backing up – 90%
J’maine Hopgood ($671,300; 14% rostered)
Hopgood has been floating around the fringes of Origin selection since he broke out as a SuperCoach option, with his offloads and workrate putting him firmly on the radar of selectors. It remains to be seen whether he is made of the ‘right stuff’ but Billy Slater has given him the nod to debut ahead of the more Origin-hardened David Fifita for this game, so that’s high praise indeed.
As this is his Origin debut, it remains to be seen whether Hopgood will back up but with a near-unheard of five day turnaround (plays Monday afternoon in Sydney after Game 1), a three day turnaround in Newcastle for Game 2, and a Round 20 bye after Game 3, the chances for Hopgood to back up appear quite high.
Likelihood of backing up – 80%
Angus Crichton ($853,400; 34% rostered)
We were a little lost for a while, but premium keeper level Angus slipped back into being a staple of our SuperCoach teams as easily as he has slipped back into Blues’ selection this season. It wasn’t that long ago that he was one of the first names on the team sheet, so all is right with the world. Except that we have to decide what to do with him, given his value and also the expected games he *might* miss.
Angus has backed up six times out of a possible eight opportunities, with both times he didn’t back up being 48 hour turnarounds. He has backed up three times on three day, once on four day, once on a five day and once on a seven day turnaround.
With the Roosters having the Round 14 bye, and a four day turnaround and a three day turnaround after Games 2 and 3, Angus has a high likelihood of backing up.
Likelihood of backing up – 75% but possibly off bench
Reuben Cotter ($615,300; 34% rostered)
Who could forget Cotter’s Origin debut in Game 1 of 2022? It still ranks as one of the all-time debuts, playing 80 minutes at lock in your first Origin game due to injuries to teammates, running for over 130 metres while making over 50 tackles. Not a bad day out!
Of course, the remainder of the series was a write-off after Cotter suffered a hamstring injury a week out from Game 2, but Cotter has quickly cemented himself as one of the first names considered for a Maroons’ forward pack well down on troops this season.
Cotter has backed up on three out of four opportunities, with his one game not backing up being the two day turnaround after his mammoth 80 minute debut effort after Game 1 in 2022. Given he then went on to suffer a hamstring injury in the warm-up for Round 15 that year, it’s clear that not backing up was the right idea! He then backed up after all three Origin games in 2023, after two four day turnarounds and one three day turnaround.
In 2024, with a three day turnaround in Townsville, a four day turnaround in Penrith, and a four day turnaround in Townsville, the Cowboys may choose to be cautious with Cotter given what has happened previously depending on his workload in the Origin game.
Likelihood of backing up – 75% but likely plays reduced minutes
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($593,000; 10% rostered)
The Hammer continues to build an impressive career, going from strength to strength and showcasing the flexibility and willingness to do whatever he needs for his state. Happily shifting to centre for representative games, while being one of the better fullbacks in the NRL, isn’t something that every player can do so seamlessly but much like his running style, the Hammer just makes it look effortless.
Tabuai-Fidow has backed up on three out of four opportunities, with the one time he did not back up being a three day turnaround after Game 1 in 2023. That said, he backed up on three day turnarounds on two other occasions, and a four day turnaround for the other time.
The Dolphins have the best bye coverage in the NRL this season; however this means the schedule for their representative stars is less favourable, as the Hammer will miss (at a bare minimum) Rounds 13, 14, 16, 18 (the Dolphins second bye for the season) and Round 19, and will be backing up for Rounds 17 and 19. Given the Round 18 bye though, the Hammer will probably push to play Round 17, and Round 20 is a date with the three-time reigning premiers in the Panthers who will be itching to be knocked off by an upstart team from up north.
Likelihood of backing up – 66%
Brian To’o ($629,300; 6% rostered)
‘Bizza’ has been the first winger picked by the Blues since his Origin debut in the 2021 series. Considering he has averaged 211 running metres per game in Origin across his nine games, while scoring four tries too, it’s easy to understand why.
His workrate is virtually unmatched and this gruelling punishment at the highest level of the game can make it harder for To’o to back up for his club. That said, with the injuries and suspensions that have impacted the Panthers this season, To’o may be called upon to back up as much as he can possibly handle.
To’o has backed up on five out of nine occasions, not backing up once on a two day turnaround, once on a three day turnaround and twice on four day turnarounds. He has backed up three times after four day turnarounds, and twice on five day turnarounds.
The Panthers have been well-looked after by the NRL, with four day turnarounds after all three Origin games, and all three games also at the Panthers’ home ground.
Likelihood of backing-up – 66%
Patrick Carrigan ($633,900; 17% rostered)
Carrigan also had one of the great Origin debut games – he just happened to have been overshadowed by Cotter in that same game! Unlike Cotter though, Carrigan was able to play the rest of the Origin series in 2022 and has fast nailed himself on as one of the first forwards picked on the teamlist.
Carrigan doesn’t have the best draw for backing up over this period, and with him only backing up on four out of six occasions, and being managed by the Broncos carefully through this period, it appears likely that Carrigan will back up on two out of the three games this year.
Likelihood of backing up – 66%
Tom Dearden ($573,200; 15% rostered)
With the Munster injury and the subsequent news that he will miss the whole Origin series for 2024, many Queenslanders may have felt deflated. But Dearden and his supporters would have seen the silver lining that opened the door for Dearden to stake his claim to be the long-term Queensland five eighth following Munster’s inevitable retirement one day.
After his sole Origin appearance in 2022, Dearden didn’t back up on a two day turnaround which given he had just been parachuted into an Origin decider for his debut appearance, and contributed successfully to a series win, it was fair enough to assume the celebrations would have carried on long and hard after that victory.
While the Cowboys have a relatively good schedule for backing up, (three day turnaround in Townsville, four day turnaround in Penrith, four day turnaround in Townsville), the depth that the Cowboys have in the halves may give them the luxury to not overload Dearden and force him to back up after all three games.
Likelihood of backing up – 66%
Jeremiah Nanai ($721,600; 11% rostered)
When you think about a player who has scored 34 tries in 52 games, you’re probably imagining a speedy outside back or maybe even a running five-eighth. You don’t normally expect a rampaging backrower but Nanai has a rare knack of scoring tries, with great aerial ability as well as a developing running game as well. He has fast found a home on an edge for the Cowboys and the Maroons, and looms as a genuine attacking threat to the Blues.
Nanai has failed to up on two occasions out of five, with both those times being a two day turnaround. He has backed up on a three day, four day and six day turnarounds.
With Nanai sharing the same relatively favourable schedule as the other Cowboys’ players, the presence of Finefeuiaki and Luki could mean that coach Payten may have a little more wriggle room to ease Nanai back or give him a week off as required.
Likelihood of backing up – 66%
Payne Haas ($690,900; 15% rostered)
Haas is known for his superhuman feats of strength, recovery and general freakishness in being able to do physical things that other NRL players can’t do. He plays through all manner of injury and churns out the SuperCoach points. That said, he is still human and this comes at a cost, one that the Broncos are all too aware of. He has already had a cleanout on his knee this season, and while looking back to his best in recent weeks the Broncos will be mindful of not overloading him through the representative period.
Haas has backed up eight times out of eight opportunities: three times after a three day turnaround, three times on a four day turnaround, once after a six day and once after a seven day turnaround.
Haas has effectively backed up at every opportunity aside from when he has been injured, so while his chances of backing up for the Broncos are good, the draw has not been overly kind for the Broncos’ Origin stars with short turnaround times and also long travel involved, so Haas may not back up as much as he usually does (three day turnaround at Suncorp, three day turnaround in New Zealand, three day turnaround in Newcastle).
Likelihood of backing up – 50%
Zac Lomax ($676,400; 13% rostered)
Lomax has been one of the best wingers in the NRL all season and despite a lacklustre last start where he really struggled, Lomax has earned his debut Blues jersey, albeit playing in his least-preferred position. His high workrate and willingness to roll up the sleeves in yardage poses as a great asset for the Blues, when you multiply that with the one-two punch of the Panthers duo at fullback and on the other wing.
This is Lomax’s Origin debut so he has no history of backing up yet. It will be a tall ask for a debutant to go out and play his first Origin, and then have to come back in 48 hours to turn out for the Dragons, albeit at their home ground. His chances of backing up seem much better after Game 2 (assuming he is still in the squad) with the longer turnaround time.
With a two day turnaround after Game 1, a four day turnaround after Game 2 and then a bye in Round 20, Lomax may find it hard to back up after Game 1 but he could feature after Game 2.
Likelihood of backing up – 50%
Reece Walsh ($718,400; 25% rostered)
Walsh has continued on his dynamic, explosiveness and high octane fullback play from last season for the Broncos, and his high risk, high reward play continues to electrify and frustrate fans in equal measure. At 21 he’s got time on his side but especially for the Maroons and Maroons fans, they will be hopin he can slow his brain and minimise his errors in the Origin arena, where mistakes are famously punished and capitalised upon with such small margin of error.
Walsh backed up after three days after Game 1 last year (scored 65), and four days after Game 2 (scored 22), before missing Game 3 due to his contrary conduct suspension.
The biggest issue for Walsh is his ongoing management of a knee issue, which has limited his training and even caused him to miss a game recently. This ongoing management, coupled with the Broncos’ unfriendly draw through the Origin period (three day turnaround at Suncorp, three day turnaround in New Zealand, three day turnaround in Newcastle), lends itself to the Broncos being extra cautious with their rockstar fullback.
Likelihood of backing up – 33%
Nicho Hynes ($984,100; 43% rostered)
His Origin career thus far is just 12 minutes old, but Hynes has the perfect opportunity to stamp himself as a more permanent fixture in this Blues squad given the injuries to many other half options right now.
Of course, he comes in with this lingering calf issue, and also with a Sharks team that is sitting pretty at the top of the NRL ladder currently.
Hynes backed up on a three day turnaround, playing the full game and scoring 90 SuperCoach points; but it’s hard to suggest that he would’ve been too tired from his limited involvement in his Origin debut.
This season, the Sharks have a three day turnaround after Game 1, a two day turnaround after Game 2 and the bye in Round 20 after Game 3. Given Hynes’ ongoing calf concern, and the Sharks’ ladder position, it’s hard to imagine Hynes backing up and risking his already troublesome calf.
This makes Hynes a difficult hold over the Origin period, with him potentially only turning out for the Sharks in Rounds 15 and 18 between now and Round 21.
Likelihood of backing up – 5%
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