NRL SuperCoach teams analysis Round 16

The bye has totally torn SuperCoach teams apart. But there is light at the end of the tunnel.

WINNERS

* Latrell Mitchell - Origin reject, SuperCoach gain. Latrell has the second best average of any CTW this year and is an obvious target for the 58 per cent who don’t own him. Sneaky VC.

* Ryan Matterson - Yet another Origin reject, yet another SuperCoach gain. Only Jason Taumalolo has scored more points at 2RF.

* Payne Haas – At risk of sounding like a broken record, yet another Origin reject, yet another SuperCoach gain (the SuperCoach Gods have been uncharacteristically kind this week). Haas is owned by over half of SuperCoaches and provides a crucial extra number this week, possibly as captain.

* Xavier Coates - Prodigious youngster named for the Broncos, who have been hit by injury and Origin. Fourth most purchased player this week as SuperCoaches search for the perfect cheapie/nuff.

* Sandor Earl – Takes NSW star Josh Addo-Carr’s spot on the Melbourne wing. Top “nuff” option this week (more below).

LOSERS

* David Klemmer – Originally named for the Knights but now unavailable due to his call-up to the NSW side.

* Siosiua Taukeiaho - The most purchased player of the last month has been ruled out with concussion, denying SuperCoaches a crucial extra number.

* Kalyn Ponga - The third most popular player in SuperCoach is out for two weeks with a calf injury.

* Anthony Milford - Out indefinitely with a knee injury. Could miss up to 12 weeks.

Kalyn Ponga is a hold while Shaun Johnson is the most purchased player.

St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm

Thursday, July 4th, 7:50pm, WIN Stadium

Dragons: 1. Matt Dufty 2. Jonus Pearson 3. Euan Aitken 4. Tim Lafai 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Jai Field 7. Darren Nicholls 8. Korbin Sims 9. Cameron McInnes 10. Jeremy Latimore 11. Jacob Host 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Blake Lawrie

Interchange: 14. Josh Kerr 15. Reece Robson 16. Patrick Kaufusi 17. Mitchell Allgood

Reserves: 18. Jordan Pereira 19. Jackson Ford 20. Lachlan Timm 21. Tristan Sailor

Team news: Paul McGregor’s side is short on troops with Paul Vaughan, Tyson Frizell, Ben Hunt and Queensland debutant Corey Norman on Origin duty, while Tariq Sims is suspended. James Graham (broken leg) and Gareth Widdop (shoulder) are not yet ready for returns. Blake Lawrie, Jeremy Latimore, Korbin Sims and Luciano Leilua have all been named to start in the pack. Josh Kerr, Patrick Kaufusi and Mitchell Allgood earn bench spots and all are nuff options. Tim Lafai (ankle) returns at centre in place of Lachlan Maranta.

SuperCoach analysis: Tim Lafai (ankle) returns, but thankfully for SuperCoaches Euan Aitken retains a centre spot for another week. However, his run could come to an end next round when Zac Lomax (broken thumb) returns, although that would hardly be the end of the word as Aitken would nuff out. Speaking of nuffs, Josh Kerr remains the best option in the forwards. But as Rob Sutherland so eloquently puts it, Sandor Earl is the nuff of the round.

Storm: 1. Jahrome Hughes 2. Suliasi Vunivalu 3. Justin Olam 4. Solomone Kata 5. Sandor Earl 6. Billy Walters 7. Brodie Croft 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Joe Stimson 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Brandon Smith

Interchange: 14. Albert Vete 15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Ryan Papenhuyzen

Reserves: 18. Marion Seve 19. Tom Eisenhuth 20. Max King 21. Harry Grant

Team news: Mass changes.Cameron Munster, Will Chambers, Felise Kaufusi, Christian Welch, Josh Addo-Carr and Dale Finucane are on Origin duty. Addo-Carr is replaced on the wing by Sandor Earl. Chambers is replaced at centre by new recruit Solomone Kata. Munster is replaced at five-eighth by Billy Walters. Joe Stimson and Brandon Smith come into the starting pack for Kaufusi and Finucane. Nelson Asofa-Solomona starts at prop for Welch. Albert Vete and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui are the new faces on the bench. Jahrome Hughes (back) returns at fullback, bumping Ryan Papenhuyzen to the bench. Regular first grader Marion Seve (shoulder) has been included on an extended bench.

SuperCoach analysis: Sandor Earl is the King of the Nuffs, despite sitting a lowly 16th in the most purchased list. My advice is to reverse trades on the week’s third most purchased player — Xavier Coates — and instead go for Sandor (but please pronounce it Shhhhhhhhandor or Rob will get angry). Without stealing Rob’s Thunder, Earl is the only nuff that fits all crucial criteria:

* Outside back

* Close to bottom dollar

* Playing a weakened team

* Will be gooone once rep stars return

Rob’s full analysis on Shhhhhhhhhandor here.

Despite the rumours, Cameron Smith won’t make an Origin comeback and is therefore a key VC option in the first game of the round. With six Origin players out, Smith will run the side, which generally leads to improved scores for the best hooker in SuperCoach history.

Wests Tigers vs Sydney Roosters

Friday, July 5th, 7:50pm, BankWest Stadium

Tigers: 1. Corey Thompson 2. Robert Jennings 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Esan Marsters 5. David Nofoaluma 6. Benji Marshall 7. Luke Brooks 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Robbie Farah 10. Alex Twal 11. Ryan Matterson 12. Chris Lawrence 13. Matthew Eisenhuth

Interchange: 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Elijah Taylor 17. Michael Chee-Kam

Reserves: 18. Russell Packer 19. Chris McQueen 20. Josh Reynolds 21. Oliver Clark

Team news: Josh Aloiai (illness) returns at prop for Oliver Clark. Moses Mbye is on Origin duty, replaced by Paul Momirovski at centre.

SuperCoach analysis: Ryan Matterson currently sits fifth on the most purchased list, but will surge to second or even first following news David Klemmer has been called into the Origin side. Esan Marsters is no longer a top five CTW and is a potential sell next week for John Bateman, Tom Trbojevic etc. Marsters’ offload, for so long his bread and butter, has all but disappeared. He has made just four offloads in the last seven weeks compared to 20 over for first six weeks.

Roosters: 1. Joseph Manu 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Brett Morris 5. Ryan Hall 6. Luke Keary 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Victor Radley 10. Zane Tetevano 11. Nat Butcher 12. Mitchell Aubusson 13. Isaac Liu

Interchange: 14. Angus Crichton 15. Poasa Faamausili 16. Sitili Tupouniua 18. Matt Ikuvalu

Reserves: 19. Daniel Fifita 20. Lachlan Lam 21. Sam Verrils 22. Drew Hutchison

Team news: Luke Keary (concussion) returns at five-eighth, pushing Latrell Mitchell back to centre and Joseph Manu to fullback, where he replaces NSW ace James Tedesco. Blues captain Boyd Cordner is replaced in the back row by Nat Butcher. Popular SuperCoach player Siosiua Taukeiaho (concussion) is out with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (hamstring) and Zane Tetevano the starting props. Sitili Tupouniua returns on the bench.

SuperCoach analysis: Siosiua Taukeiaho’s omission due to concussion is a huge blow for SuperCoaches given his ownership quadrupled in the last fortnight. He is not an automatic top 17 player for the run home and is therefore a potential sell for Ryan Matterson, Jazz Tevaga or Latrell Mitchell (via duals). In a huge blow to POD hunters, Angus Crichton remains on the bench even with Boyd Cordner on Origin duty. Nat Butcher has leapfrogged Crichton in the forward pecking order (which is not a sentence we expected to write this year). Well done to those who got on Butcher as he’s a great POD at less than one per cent ownership. Latrell Mitchell has the biggest upside of any player this week and is therefore VC for Sangster’s Paradise.

Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors

Saturday, July 6th, 7:35pm, Macdonald Jones Stadium

Knights: 1. Connor Watson 2. Hymel Hunt 3. Kurt Mann 4. Jesse Ramien 5. Shaun Kenny-Dowall 6. Mason Lino 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. James Gavet 9. Danny Levi 10. Jacob Saifiti 11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 12. Sione Mata’utia 13. David Klemmer

Interchange: 14. Jamie Buhrer 15. Herman Ese’ese 16. Josh King 17. Pasami Saulo

Reserves: 18. Aidan Guerra 19. Brodie Jones 20. Tex Hoy 21. Tautau Moga

Team news: David Klemmer was named but is not available after being called into the NSW Origin side. Kalyn Ponga (calf) is again out. Connor Watson will play fullback with Danny Levi (ankle) returning from injury at hooker. Kurt Mann switches to centre and Hymel Hunt comes onto the wing for Edrick Lee (broken arm). Daniel Saifiti and Tim Glasby are on Origin duty. James Gavet moves into the starting side at prop alongside the returning Jacob Saifiti with Pasami Saulo called on the bench.

SuperCoach analysis: David Klemmer has been named but will withdraw after being called into the Origin side. He is still the fourth most purchased player so reverse trades NOW and bring in Matterson, Tevaga, Latrell, Earl etc. Kalyn Ponga is somehow the fifth most sold player despite only being ruled out for two weeks. Yes, he is far from a POD at 51 per cent ownership, but PODs are only useful if they score better than popular players. Ponga has averaged almost six points per game more than the next best five-eighth, so it’s not a risk worth taking.

Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (c) 2. David Fusitu’a 3. Peta Hiku 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Blake Green 8. Agnatius Paasi 9. Karl Lawton 10. Leeson Ah Mau 11. Adam Blair 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Jazz Tevaga

Interchange: 14. Issac Luke 15. Bunty Afoa 16. Sam Lisone 17. Lachlan Burr

Reserves: 18. Gerard Beale 20. Ligi Sao 21. Leivaha Pulu 22. Chanel Harris-Tavita

Team news: The season of Nathaniel Roache (ACL) is over. He is replaced by Issac Luke on the bench. Lachlan Burr (soreness) returns on the interchange in place of Leivaha Pulu, with SuperCoach prospect Jazz Tevaga retaining the No. 13 jersey.

SuperCoach analysis: Jazz Tevaga is a tantalising POD this week at just two per cent ownership. He has averaged almost 60 in non-injury-affected games, which places him in the borderline keeper category. Further, he has been named to start for the second week in a row and with a break even of -3, he is at the very least a stepping stone to a post-Origin keeper (Jurbo, Murray etc).

Ken Maumalo is underrepresented in trades once again, just the 14th most purchased. Here’s a reminder of how good he is. Only Latrell Mitchell has scored more points at CTW this year, yet Maumalo somehow sits in “Super POD” range at 10 per cent ownership. Maumalo’s scores have been propped up by 10 tries this year, but he also possesses one of highest floors in the position. Maumalo has made the most runs of any winger this year and averages an impressive 34 in pure base stats. He scored 52 last week without a try. Sounds good to me.

Cronulla Sharks vs Brisbane Broncos

Sunday, July 7th, 4:05pm, PointsBet Stadium

Sharks: 1. Matt Moylan 2. Sosaia Feki 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Josh Morris 5. Josh Dugan 6. Shaun Johnson 7. Chad Townsend 8. Aaron Woods 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Matt Prior 11. Briton Nikora 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Paul Gallen

Interchange: 14. Kyle Flanagan 15. Jayson Bukuya 16. Jack Williams, 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

Reserves: 18. Blayke Brailey 19. Scott Sorensen 20. Billy Magoulias 21. Aaron Gray

Team news: Origin rep Wade Graham is replaced in the back row by Kurt Capewell, with Kyle Flanagan called up on the bench. Jack Williams reverts to the interchange with Aaron Woods called up to the starting side following his return from a foot injury last week.

SuperCoach analysis: Shaun Johnson is the most purchased player this week. Anytime you can buy a great of SuperCoach at $440,200, you simply have to lock it in. His form since returning from a hamstring injury has been strong. And Chad Townsend has taken full control of the Cronulla attack, which allows Johnson to do whatever the hell he feels like – exactly how SuperCoaches like it. Johnson is a prime captaincy target in the final game for thrill seekers. Bronson Xerri is a hold despite a massive BE (147). He will become John Bateman or Tom Trbojevic next week.

Broncos: 1. Darius Boyd 2. Herbie Farnworth 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Xavier Coates 6. Jake Turpin 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Matthew Lodge 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Payne Haas 11. Alex Glenn 12. Tevita Pangai Junior 13. Tom Flegler

Interchange: 14. James Segeyaro 15. Rhys Kennedy 16. Shaun Fensom 17. Pat Carrigan

Reserves: 18. Keenan Palaisa 19. Corey Paix 20. Patrick Mago 21. Izaia Perese

Team news: Anthony Milford (knee) and Richie Kennar (shoulder) are out injured, while Corey Oates, David Fifita, Matt Gillett and Joe Ofahengaue are on Origin duty. Darius Boyd returns to fullback for Milford and Jake Turpin starts in the halves. Herbie Farnsworth and Xavier Coates both earn debuts on the wings. Alex Glenn and Thomas Flegler join the starting pack with Tevita Pangai Jnr shifting from lock to second row. James Segeyaro, Rhys Kennedy and Shaun Fensom are the new names on the pine.

SuperCoach analysis: Xavier Coates, and to a lesser extent Herbie Farnworth, are popular cheapie/nuff buys. But see above re Shhhhhhhandor Earl. Farnworth’s biggest impact on SuperCoach could be if he takes the goalkicking duties off Kotoni Staggs. Payne Haas is an extremely safe captaincy option in the final game of the round as he is yet to score below 50 for the year. Saving your captain for the last match also creates great flexibility — if you’re sitting pretty, lock in Haas, if you fall behind, lock in Johnson.