Look deeper than mere ‘talent’ when picking your SuperCoach nuff

One player stands above the pack when it comes to being the perfect bye round one-and-done selection this week. Rob Sutherland reveals why to trust this left-field nomination.

You probably won’t like this article.

Not, I hope, because it’s badly written, frequent flyers of my work should be used to that by now, but rather because it finds a problem and not an answer.

Usually when writing SuperCoach articles I attempt to articulate the problem and then identify an answer citing relevant supporting statistics.

In this case I’m identifying the problem and then identifying the evidence that shows this may be a problem without an answer.

And now that I’ve alienated the majority of readers, let me take you willing masochists who remain on a journey into why finding the perfect final bye round nuff is so tough.

The perfect final bye round nuff is a player who:

* plays in the bye (obvious I know but …)

* is cheap, preferably bottom dollar

* will disappear forever after the bye.

At this point of the season we do not want solid bench players who accumulate money slowly, we probably don’t even want middling backs who accumulate money slightly quicker.

Trades are running low, as are opportunities for big price rises. So while the priority, of course, is points in round 16, for the purposes of the vice-captaincy loophole (a cunning trick that is far more important over the back end of the season than the first thanks to overall strength of your team) it is vital that our nuffs do not stick around posting low scores after the bye.

That’s a fair laundry list of requirements. Let’s see how those nuffs who were brought in by their respective teams for the final bye of 2018 went.

DRAGONS V STORM (Storm won 52-30)

DRAGONS

Darren Nicholls Halfback

Scored 7 points in 80 minutes and did not play again

Reece Robson Bench Hooker

Scored 22 points in 34 minutes and did not play again

Blake Lawrie Starting lock

Scored 35 points in 29 minutes and played four more games that year off bench

Jacob Host 2RF

Lasted just five minutes and scored three points. Played one more game (Rd 24).

Luciano Leilua 2RF

Had a big game scoring 69 points (with a try) in 80 minutes and kicked on from there scoring pretty well for the remainder of the season.

Hame Sele Interchange 2RF

Scored 20 points in 32 minutes and not seen again

STORM

Young Tonumaipea named FLB played wing

Scored 48 points (with a try) in 80 minutes. Played one more game (Rd 18) then done for the season.

Cheyse Blair CTW

Scored 90 points (two tries) in 80 minutes and played intermittently for the remainder of the season.

Ryley Jacks 5/8

Scored 109 points (try, assists) in 80 minutes and played twice more — Rd 18 (24 points) and Rd 25 (37 points)

Brodie Croft named on the bench, started at HFB

Scored 111 points (try assists) in 80 minutes and played thrice more — Rd 18 (68 points), Rd 23 (48 points) and Rd 24 (39)

BULLDOGS V RAIDERS (Raiders won 32-28)

BULLDOGS

Danny Fualalo started at prop

Scored 33 points in 51 minutes and then played bench for the remainder of the season.

TITANS V BRONCOS (Broncos won 34-0)

TITANS

Jack Stockwell

Named to start but did not play

Will Matthews started 2RF

Scored 27 points in full 80 minutes, played six more games in a mix of start and bench and was poor

BRONCOS

Jonus Pearson starting winger

Scored 59 points (try) in 80 mins and did not play again.

Tom Opacic

Named to start but did not play

WHAT CAN WE TAKE FROM THAT?

Sure, history cannot predict the future — but it’s a guide so I’m taking this from the above:

1. Playmakers/outside backs have a far higher ceiling than forwards

2. Play the matchups, look for an opponent depleted by Origin selections and target that team,

3. Too often ‘nuffs’ hang around ruining your VC loophole opportunities so pick wisely.

4. The Storm v the Dragons can be a lucrative match.

And as if it were kismet, we have the Storm playing the Dragons this week.

The same Storm who currently top the NRL ladder for points scored.

The same Dragons who have conceded the fourth most points in the NRL.

The very same Dragons who have conceded the most SuperCoach points of any team.

The very very same Dragons missing both their defensive generals in second rowers Tyson Frizell and Tariq Sims, their best prop and both their starting halves.

And the Storm just so happen to have one player who fits every criteria. He is:

* an outside back

* at close to bottom dollar

* playing a weakened team

* who will be gooone as soon as the representative stars return

And who is this masked man, I hear the few of you dear readers who remain this far down my article, well enough of the teasing.

I reveal to you my pick for the bye round nuff of the season, the one, the only … Sandor Earl.

Sandor Earl in action for the Storm earlier in 2019. Picture: Alix Sweeney

Yes, I hear you, THAT Sandor Earl.

The Sandor Earl who scored just 10 points in his one game so far this year.

The same Sandor Earl who spent the best years of his life languishing in South East Asia serving a suspension for PEDs.

I realise that Sandor is not a sexy pick.

But the matchup is right. The price is right. The career trajectory is right — Earl is an experienced player who should disappear as soon as the Origin stars return Sandor is gone — is right.

Xavier Coates (left) and Broncos coach Anthony Seibold (right) are seen during Brisbane Broncos training at Clive Berghofer Field in Brisbane, Thursday, June 27, 2019. The Broncos are playing the Knights in their round 15 NRL clash in Newcastle on Saturday. (AAP Image/Darren England) NO ARCHIVING

I appreciate the temptation to pick up one of the young Brisbane speedsters, Xavier Coates or Herbie Farnworth, who are debuting on the wing this week. Both Coates and Farnworth come with big raps. But the Broncos are travelling horribly, have struggled to score points all year and are matched up against a strong Cronulla team who will be absolutely champing at the bit after losing to the Bulldogs last week.

* FWIW If you must pick a Broncos outside back then my tip is Farnworth over the more popular Coates. He’s older, has more experience at QRL Cup level against men and is a very capable goalkicker.

Norths league first Intrust Super Cup match of the season against Burleigh Bears. Sunday, March 10, 2019. Norths #5 Herbie Farnworth. (AAP Image/Renae Droop)

AND A BONUS BIT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BREACHED THE 1000 WORD LIMIT

He’s not a cheapie but I’m a huge fan of Jazz Tevaga as POD pick in your 2RF. Averaging 58PPG (if you remove his two injury shortened games) this season and scoring at better than a PPM Tevaga may not be truly elite — but he’s close.

He’s also available at under $400Km plays the bye and here’s the kicker as far as I’m concerned he has dual position 2RF/HKR eligibility.

Warriors Jazz Tevaga makes a break during the Penrith v Warriors NRL match at Penrith Stadium, Penrith. Picture: Brett Costello

Selecting Tevaga at 2RF gives your side crucial flexibility. Most of us will be running a dual hooker strategy of either Damien Cook and one of Cam Smith or Cam McInnes.

Should one of your premium hookers get injured then having Tevaga at 2RF allows you to trade that hooker out and select any one of 2RF/FRF/CTW (assuming your team has a standard range of duals).

Trust me, with trades running low, the chance to spend Damien Cook money on near enough any position you like as opposed to being compelled to spend it at hooker is gold dust when trades are running low.