KFC SuperCoach NRL: Settling the Cheapie versus Nuff debate
The big question in KFC SuperCoach NRL this week is do we need one more cheapie, or is it time to ‘nuff’? Rob Sutherland crunches the numbers.
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There are eight rounds left in what has been a pretty crazy 2020 KFC SuperCoach NRL season and I believe this marks a tipping point in how we play the game.
With rounds running low, and trades too, I think it is time to stop the hunt to find the best ‘cheapies’ and instead embrace the need to ‘nuff.’
Those of you have come this far already know what a cheapie is, but some may be wondering about the term ‘nuff’.
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WHO IS A NUFF?
In SuperCoach a nuff is a player who is bottom dollar who should not play for the rest of the season and ideally is a ‘DPP’ or dual-position player.
WHY DO WE NUFF?
The price point speaks for itself, after all why spend money on a guy who will not score.
The requirement that they not play is to avoid what is, somewhat dramatically, known in the game as an ‘AE nightmare.’
The goal is to pare down your squad to 18 or 19 top players each of whom is capable of playing in your scoring 17 in any given week.
In this way then should one of your team be a late withdrawal resulting in you getting an AE (automatic emergency), then your AE is still a good score of 60+ as opposed to the 30-40 that an ‘AE nightmare’ cheapie provides.
This also helps maximise the effectiveness of the VC loophole play.
Lastly a DPP is ideal as it gives you the flexibility to move players around either when covering injuries or trading.
MORE NEWS
CHEAPIE BIBLE: Blast from past top pick
TEAMS ANALYSIS: Rookie Rabbit cheapie of week
A NUFF ABOUT THAT, WHY NO CHEAPIES
Firstly, apologies about the ‘dad joke’ in the subhead above, I couldn’t help myself.
The first reason to curtail the chase for cheapies is the AE nightmare that a cheapie left in your reserves poses.
And the reason they may be left in your reserves is a time and a trades issue.
Cheapies take time to increase in value, to borrow a SuperCoach phrase, your cows need time to fatten.
For some perspective this is how long it took some 2020 cheapies to pass the $100K profit mark: Tevita Funa (4), Tommy Talau (4) Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (5), Toby Rudolf (5), Jake Averillo (6), Tyrell Fuimaono (7)
There is also the issue of trades. Now I don’t know about you but I’m running low on trades.
I have 14 left after this week and have seven non-playing reserves (NPR) that are playing in round 12, all of which I plan to sell at some point.
That leaves me just seven trades to use the profit realised from those sales AND to deal with injuries.
That’s not enough trades to start chasing more cheapies.
BUT IF I HAD TO CHASE JUST ONE MORE BASE RATE CHEAPIE WHO SHOULD IT BE?
To illustrate let me run through some Low (L) Medium (M) and High (H) scenarios for popular cheapie buys this week – please note I have deleted my Aji analysis following his injury news.
ANDREW DAVEY
Price: $171,900
Games played: 2
BE: -35
Average: 48
Expected three round average: L 25, M 35, H 45
Expected three round profit: L $50K, M $80K, $120K
If we were early in the season I’d be pretty keen on Davey. His workrate was very good in his first game (28 base in 28 mins) and acceptable in the second (29 base in 51 minutes on an edge) and he has produced attacking stats in offloads, try/linebreak assists and a try contribution. Davey’s job security looks quite good having beaten the likes of Brad Takairangi and Stefano Utoikamanu for selection this week. His TOG was inflated in the second round due to the injury to Ryan Matterson but even restricted to 30MPG he looks to have a SC friendly game that could see him add $100K in three weeks.
SEMI VALEMEI
Price: $171,900
Games played: 2
BE: 18
Average: 21.5
Expected three round average: L 20, M 30, H 50
Expected three round profit: L $10K, M $40K, $100K
The rookie Raider’s average is somewhat skewed by his first game in which he scored just seven points in 39 minutes against the Roosters. That said, his second effort of 36 points in the full game against the Rabbitohs includes a try so getting a true read on future outputs is tricky. In Valemei’s favour is Canberra’s draw which features two very good match-ups against the Cowboys and Broncos and just one tough game against the Panthers. Job security looks shaky though. I expect Valemei to remain in the side only so long as Jordan Rapana is filling in at fullback for the injured Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and that may be as little as one week but more likely two. Not a big worker, he has scored just 26 points in base in 119 minutes, Valemei will be relying on tries to get into the medium range and try/linebreaks to reach the high range. Even with the good match-ups I’m expecting him to finish in the lower range and make $30-50K should he play all three weeks but that could be reduced to as little as $10K if CNK returns early.
JAXSON PAULO
Price: $171,900
Games played: 2
BE: 1
Average: 30
Expected three round average: L 35, M 45, H 55
Expected three round profit: L $55K, M $90K, H $130K
Paulo’s appeal really depends on which Paulo we see over the next three weeks. The Rabbitohs have a dream draw over the next three rounds that runs: Dragons, Broncos and the Cowboys; teams have conceded totals of 54, 102 points and 88 points each across their past three matches. If we see the Paulo of round 10 who made 18 runs and set up a try with a beautifully deft kick at full flight then he could be a quality late cheapie. If it is the Paulo of round 11 who made just eight runs, five of which were under eight metres then he may struggle to win selection for all three matches. I’m going to plug for sunny optimism as is my wont and predict Paulo’s output falls in the higher range of those listed above which could see a pretty handy $100K and up over three weeks.
With the job security issues surrounding Valemei it is very hard to make a case supporting him as a buy. I do not see him making much profit and while he will not be an AE nightmares if not selected, he’s clearly next in line at the clubs should further injury strike and therefore poses a far greater threat of becoming one than a true nuff.
Davey and Paulo make stronger appeal though the only one I could really talk myself into is the Rabbitoh. As an outside back with a pretty soft draw, Paulo only needs a try/linebreak in two of the next three matches to increase by well over $100K in three weeks. And that soft draw means that if disaster struck your CTW you could play him in one or two of those matches at a pinch. That could not be said for Davey.