NRL finals clubs struggling for form — but that just means the competition is even better, says Matty Johns
THE Roosters and Rabbitohs are limping, the Storm and Broncos inconsistent, and the Dragons and Panthers are gone … but Matty Johns reckons the recent form slump of several high-profile clubs should be ignored.
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THEY are falling, failing and faltering at the wrong time of year, but several heavyweight clubs are simply in a “holding pattern” until the big finals matches start.
That’s the opinion of one of Matthew Johns, one of rugby league’s sharpest minds, who says the recent form slump of several high-profile clubs should be ignored come the business end of the season.
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The Sydney Roosters, South Sydney, St George Illawarra and Penrith are limping along, while premiership leaders Melbourne haven’t set the world alight in the lead-up to the playoffs.
The New Zealand Warriors have won just four of their past nine matches, while Brisbane have been successful in two of their past four games.
Never before has so many sides been so out of form just one week before a finals series.
The Dragons and Panthers are being already being dismissed as contenders.
With three successive wins, Cronulla are the only team with any momentum heading into September.
While acknowledging teams were struggling, Johns was adamant the Rabbitohs, Storm and Roosters would prove their dominance.
And the Roosters’ chances will improve when prop Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is named to return from injury.
Johns, the former NSW and Australian five-eighth and Fox Sports expert, has predicted a Rabbitohs-Storm grand final. That’s despite the Rabbitohs losing three consecutive games and winning only two of six matches since round 19.
“I like Souths and Melbourne,” Johns said. “Souths have Greg Inglis coming back and Sam Burgess has been a little quiet in the last few weeks.
“You watch, week one of the finals and he will be the best player. They will lift.
“I don’t think Souths have spent much. You look at the Dragons, they look absolutely exhausted, the same with the Panthers. I don’t think Souths have spent as much as other teams.”
After losses to Souths and Cronulla, the Storm have secured somewhat unconvincing wins over Parramatta (20-4) and Gold Coast (10-8).
Fellow heavyweights the Roosters have suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this year.
Roosters coach Trent Robinson confirmed that Waerea-Hargreaves would return from a rib injury for Saturday night’s game against Parramatta at ANZ Stadium.
His comeback coincides with a three-game suspension for fellow prop, Dylan Napa, who pleaded guilty to a charge of dangerous contact of the head/neck for his headfirst hit on Brisbane’s Andrew McCullough.
Johns, though, is certain the big three will lift for the finals — but said every side could mount an argument for September success.
“I will be surprised still if someone from outside the top three win,” Johns said.
“I do get the feeling Souths and the Roosters are treading water a little bit — that holding pattern waiting for the finals to kick off.
“Once the finals start, I think they will go to another gear. Melbourne, they just have the players in those big games to get the job done. They have injuries but I like Melbourne because they’re Melbourne and they have Cam Smith and the others don’t.
“I still think those three teams are a step above at the moment.”
Johns rated the Warriors a chance and said a swooper from outside the top eight could cause some damage through September.
“There is no doubt, if someone can catch fire, they can win it,” Johns said. “There is an argument for most teams.
“My old man (Gary) is a great, great judge and he reckons the Warriors can win it. He said they’re dangerous, have a big strong pack, creative players and they play good against good teams.
“When they play with an underdog mentality, they are bloody hard to beat. They are not on the top of my list but I always say my old man is a very good judge.”
Matty Johns rates the NRL top eight’s finals hopes
1st: Storm 34pts, +179PD
Have followed up losses to Souths (30-20) and Cronulla (17-14) with reasonably unconvincing wins against Parramatta (20-4) and Titans (10-8).
This week: Friday 7.55pm v Panthers, AAMI Park
Premiership odds: $4
2nd Roosters 32pts +147PD
Have suffered back to back losses for the first time this season against Canberra (14-12) and Brisbane (22-8). Have only scored 5 tries in past three matches.
This week: Saturday 7.45pm v Parramatta, ANZ Stadium
Premiership odds: $3.50
3rd Rabbitohs 32pts +104PD
Have lost three in a row for the first time this season v Roosters (18-14), Broncos (38-18) and Raiders (24-12). Since round 19 have won just two of six matches.
This week: Thursday 7.50pm v Tigers, ANZ Stadium
Premiership odds: $5
4th Sharks 32pts +84PD
Suffered back to back losses v Brisbane (12-10) and Manly (33-32 in golden point) but have followed up with three straight wins against Storm (17-14), Cowboys (28-16) and Knights (38-12).
This week: Sunday 2pm v Canterbury, ANZ Stadium
Premiership odds: $6
5th: Panthers 30pts +50PD
Have won just four of their past 10 matches. Three of those wins came after very late comebacks against non-top eight opponents (28-24 v Manly, 40-31 v Canberra, 17-16 v Titans).
This week: Friday 7.55pm v Storm, AAMI Park
Premiership odds: $31
6th Dragons 30pts +37PD
Have won just two of eight matches since round 17, four of those losses have been by 18 points or more (52-30 v Storm, 36-18 v Roosters, 40-4 v Eels, 38-0 v Bulldogs). Their loss to the Bulldogs was their biggest ever at Kogarah (as St George and St George Illawarra).
This week: Saturday 3pm v Newcastle, Hunter Stadium
Premiership odds: $31
7th Broncos 30pts +24PD
Lost to Bulldogs (36-22) and Cowboys (34-30) but have since beaten the Rabbitohs (38-18) and Roosters (22-8).
This week: Sunday 4.10pm v Manly, Suncorp Stadium
Premiership odds: $13
8th Warriors 30pts +21PD
Have won just four of their past nine matches, but have beaten Brisbane (26-6), Dragons (18-12) and Panthers (36-16) in that period.
This week: Friday 6pm v Raiders, Mt Smart Stadium
Premiership odds: $15
Likely finals week one clashes
Qualifying Final 1: Storm (1st) v Sharks (4th)
Qualifying Final 2: Roosters (2nd) v Rabbitohs (3rd)
Elimination Final 1: Broncos (5th) v Dragons (8th)
Elimination Final 2: Warriors (6th) v Panthers (7th)
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