NRL Covid Crisis: Melbourne Storm premiership odds shorten as NSW clubs move to Queensland

The NRL’s sudden move to Queensland is bad news for two Sydney heavyweights and great news for one club from outside NSW.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JULY 02: Matt Burton of the Panthers looks on after an Eels try during the round 16 NRL match between the Penrith Panthers and the Parramatta Eels at BlueBet Stadium on July 02, 2021, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Melbourne’s premiership chances have suddenly firmed dramatically under the latest NRL Covid chaos, while Parramatta and Penrith shape as the biggest losers from the move to Queensland.

As 12 NRL clubs hastily make preparations for a shift north this week, News Corp can reveal Storm have been outed as the biggest winners of a situation where they now become the only top eight side still living and training out of its own HQ, while also still boasting home ground advantage.

Importantly for Craig Bellamy’s side, they will also now be playing all away games against Sydney rivals in Queensland, where they also boast a staggering success rate of 96 per cent.

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Penrith have won less than 50 per cent of their games in Queensland since 2017.

According to Fox Sports Statistics, the Storm have lost only once in Queensland over the past five years — for a success rate of 96 per cent.

This is not only well above their 69 per cent win rate in NSW, but easily the best of any side in the NRL.

South Sydney are next best on 69 per cent.

Worryingly for Parramatta fans, the Eels sit 10th on the list having won just half of all their of Queensland games since 2017.

Penrith, meanwhile, are one place lower again, on 47 per cent.

The figures are a worry sign for two clubs who, over the past two years particularly, have enjoyed strong success at home.

Yet so overwhelming have Melbourne’s advantages become in the latest Covid crisis, the TAB on Monday wound them in for all areas of betting — with the reigning premiers now firming in title betting from $2.60 to $2.40.

Melbourne are now clear favourites to defend their title.

Elsewhere, Melbourne have also shortened into $1.40 for the minor premiership, while Penrith have drifted to $2.90.

“This all sets Melbourne up nicely,” TAB spokesman Rohan Welsh said of the competition’s move outside NSW.

“Even if Storm play away games on the Sunshine Coast, that’s like another home game for them now.”

Of course, it has to be noted Melbourne won last season’s title despite being forced to spend much of the year based out of the Sunshine Coast.

Which no matter how you slice it, remains an incredible achievement.

Indeed, while Storm boast a distinct advantage over those Sydney teams now being asked to move, given the club’s strong partnership with Sunshine Coast Falcons, the success of Bellamy’s team on the road in 2020 is testament to a club undoubtedly now among Australia’s greatest sporting franchises.

So how the bloody hell does anyone beat them now they not only get to stay at home, but play away in a state where they are stronger again?

The Eels have struggled to post wins in Queensland in recent seasons.

According to Fox Sports Statistics, Parramatta and Penrith are the two biggest losers from the move given the two sides, apart from currently sitting inside the top four, are also notoriously tough to beat at home.

In the past two years, Penrith have enjoyed an 89 per cent success rate at home.

Parramatta, meanwhile, have also enjoyed a strong run at their new home of Bankwest Stadium, winning 75 per cent of games.

While the Rabbitohs enjoy a solid strike rate north of the border, it is still well short of last year’s strong home ground record of 81 per cent.

Spare a thought too for the Newcastle Knights, who have won only the one game in Queensland since 2017.

Canterbury have also lost around 80 per cent of all games played up north in the past five years.

Already, NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo has conceded Sydney clubs may need to remain in Queensland for the rest of the season as the game fights to stay running amid Covid.

The knights have a shocking recent record in Queensland.

“We’re locking in some certainty for the next four rounds,” Abdo told Big League Wrap.

“That buys us some time to figure out how the situation unfolds in NSW. If we need to extend to the end of the season, then we will, we know that we have the capacity to absorb that.”

On Monday it was revealed the Panthers, Roosters, Knights, Panthers and Sea Eagles will all be staying on the Sunshine Coast, in the luxury resort at the Novotel Twin Waters.

Elsewhere, the Gold Coast’s Mercure hotel will play host to the Bulldogs, Eels, Rabbitohs, Raiders and Warriors, while in Brisbane, the Dragons, Sharks and Tigers will bunker down at the Novotel, South Bank.