Matty Johns: Warning signs show Brisbane Broncos are at risk of dramatic collapse

The Broncos have failed to adapt their mindset while Adam Reynolds is injured and their NRL season continues to slip away. Soon, it will be too late to fix, MATTY JOHNS writes.

The Broncos have fallen apart. NRL Imagery

Bit by bit Brisbane have slid into dangerous territory.

The Broncos are facing five losses in a row. They sit 10th and a loss to Penrith can put them on the cusp of the bottom four.

Which is almost unthinkable given they were less than four minutes away from winning last year’s grand final.

Except, talented teams are often too slow to desperation, believing their talents will eventually bring them back to the winner’s circle. It may eventually, but the problem is, by that time it’s probably too late.

Brian Kelly of the Titans celebrates after scoring a try during the round 12 win over the Broncos. Picture: Getty Images

FIRST SIGNS OF CRISIS

The talk around the Broncos has been that they’re losing touch with the top four. Top four? That’s flattering, they’re closer to losing touch with the top eight.

The Broncos’ 36-34 round 12 loss to the Gold Coast was where Brisbane needed to have a serious look at themselves and arrest a growing complacency.

In this match the Broncos showed little respect to their Queensland neighbours, almost teasing them, giving the Gold Coast cheap possession and tries, believing they could hit the accelerator at any time and be done with them.

The 36 points conceded was evidence that the Broncos had developed the same mindset which took South Sydney from competition favourites to bottom of the ladder in less than 12 months — an over-trust in their talent.

LOSING THE ‘REYNS’

That complacency has led to consecutive losses and diminishing confidence.

Losing Adam Reynolds to a ruptured biceps for an extended period should have been the catalyst for the Broncos to refine their football, develop a defensive mindset, a greater focus on ball control and discipline.

When Reynolds returns in round 23, he should be coming back into a team which had learned to win differently: gritty victories, all aspects of their game tidied up, ready for his return and a tilt at the title.

Instead, this season is on a knife’s edge.

The Broncos have not handled the absence of Adam Reynolds well. Picture: NRL Imagery

THE PENRITH FORMULA

The Broncos needed to take a lead from their round 18 opponents, three-time defending champions, the Penrith Panthers.

Like the Broncos, they’ve had to endure the loss of their centrepiece playmaker in Nathan Cleary.

In all three title winning seasons, the Panthers had lost Nathan for various amounts of time.

He played 20 of their 28 games in 2021, 17 of 27 in 2022 and 22 of 27 last year.

This season, Cleary has featured in just five games due to a hamstring injury that has kept him out since round 10.

But unlike the Broncos, the Panthers adjusted and kept winning — six of their 10 matches without Cleary, with two of those losses coming when Origin has impacted their squad.

In fact, losing Cleary has been the secret sauce in Penrith’s three premierships.

In his absence, Penrith lifted their aggression and defensive intensity, they kept their attack tight, they exercised ball control.

Cleary then returned fresh to a team which was in the top two, rock-hard fit and ready to win the competition.

In 2024, the Panthers are sitting second, have a bye in Round 19 and expect their halfback and talisman back the week after, which would give him eight rounds to set themselves in their push for a fourth successive premiership.

POINT OF NO RETURN

The Broncos better get going against the Panthers. The battle between the two packs will be prime-time entertainment.

If the yardage battle dictates the result, then Penrith have a distinct advantage.

Brian To’o is the best yardage winger I’ve ever seen in the sport, while Dylan Edwards stepping, twisting and turning through the centre field drains opposition petrol tanks.

I don’t think the Broncos can contain the Panthers yardage game.

Away from home I expect Penrith to win by 10 to 16 points.