Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips for Rosehill on Saturday

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse every race for Rosehill on Saturday where Duff is tipping against favourite Accredited in the feature Group 3 Southern Cross Stakes.

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances across 10 races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BETS

R5 No.3: Lilac

VALUE BET

R1 No.8: Oneforian

RACE 1: TAB HIGHWAY (1500m)

Ron Dufficy: I like Oneforian. I think he is crying out for this distance and with some recent Highway experience on his side he should be right in the mix at good odds. Rapbidash didn’t run the distance out last start but is well suited back to this grade. Tapa Kick did enough over an unsuitable distance first-up and he is yet to run a bad race. Imatruestar is very well weighted with the claim.

Ray Thomas: Tough start for the day with a very open Highway. I’m going with Tapa Kick who had 64.5kg when resuming and did well for third at Muswellbrook. He’s yet to miss a place in 11 starts, winning twice, he drops 7kg and has drawn barrier three. He will be in the finish. Don’tcha Think comes off a very good third in a Randwick Highway and should be competitive again. Imatruestar is well suited coming back to Highway grade. Tavros is racing in great form and would have been close to the top pick but for his wide draw.

RACE 2: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1350m)

Dufficy: Pocketing hasn’t done anything wrong in his short career and he has been freshened with a barrier trial since not having much luck last start. He is well placed here. Spicy Hotpot is in winning form and might get things to suit on speed. Silentsar drops back in grade with a claim. Roussillion is going well for the new stable and is not out of this race.

Thomas: This is a good clash between Pocketing and Spicy Hotpot. I’m leaning to Pocketing even though he has to come back from 1550m at Canterbury last start when he got held up on the turn, had to switch to the centre of the course and charged home for second. He’s had a trial between runs and is suited by the bigger Rosehill track. Spicy Hotpot had to work hard to win at Canterbury but he will be peaking after two runs from a spell and is very genuine. Roussillon is working his way back to winning form and Not That Easy nearly ran down Spicy Hotpot last start so she must rate among the main chances.

RACE 3: CANONBURY STAKES (1100m)

Dufficy: Burma Star showed nice ability at his only start last preparation and he has looked sharp in his two trials. Race experience will take him a long way. Tropic looks talented and the booking of James McDonald is a strong lead as he did ride Burma Star at that colt’s only race start. Fermoy really captured attention as a big improver last preparation and should not be discounted. Blitzburg has been well tried in early betting and has been freshened for this race.

Thomas: Burma Star was narrowly beaten by the smart Icarian Dream on debut last spring and is resuming off two barrier trials, the most recent a brilliant effort to win at Hawkesbury. Burma Star ran 45sec for the 800m (breaking 33sec for the final 800m) which was nearly a full second faster than anything else that day. The Chris Waller-trained Tropic is the danger. He’s a well-bred colt by super sire Zoustar who was in cruise control when a close second in a recent Rosehill barrier trial. Fermoy, a stablemate of Tropic, was also placed on debut last spring when third to The Playwright (Icarian Dream second) at Rosehill and he was in the mix in a recent trial. Blitzburg has race experience and fitness on his side.

RACE 4: WIDDEN STAKES (1100m)

Dufficy: Tempted is a nice filly who has had a freshen to get the timing right for some bigger targets. All she needs is a touch of luck from that outside draw to prove hard to beat. The Playwright has the race form on the board and I don’t mind her coming back to 1100m here. Snitzel Miss is trialling up well and I will be watching for positives from the yard and market. She should be respected. Daphnes was good at her debut and has been freshened with a trial as well. She is not out of this race.

Thomas: Tempted was very impressive on debut as she ran down Daphnes at Warwick Farm last month. She has trialled between runs, winning well at Rosehill. Classy filly and is the one to beat. The Playwright is a tough filly coming off a game fourth in the Magic Millions. She will take catching. Daphnes made Tempted work to beat her on debut and he recent trial was eye-catching. Snitzel Miss is superbly bred and is trialling brilliantly.

RACE 5: ASAHI SUPER DRY HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: It looks like the two favourites here but I have loved the two trials of Lilac. She was a stakes winner at the end of last preparation and could be above average. Polyglot ran right up to expectations winning first-up and is sure to be popular again. Panic didn’t come up in two runs last preparation but his trials have been impressive. Goodlucktome is just out of maiden class but he is a three-year-old with upside.

Thomas: I’ve gone the other way with Polyglot over Lilac. Polyglot was very impressive first-up on Soft 7 track and although the Rosehill surface will be better this time, it still has some give in it which suits him. Polyglot also takes race fitness into the contest and that might just give him the edge. No knock on Lilac who was dynamic in her recent trial win but her stakes win last spring before a spell means she has to concede Polyglot 1.5kg. Stagnum finished strongly to win on debut then had excuses last start. He can improve sharply. Storm The Ramparts has had his chances in two runs back but hasn’t been beaten far and is at his peak now.

RACE 6: RANVET HCP (2000m)

Dufficy: Piggyback has been a beaten favourite in both runs from a spell but third-up at 2000m I’m happy to go her way. Age Of Sail did enough first-up and has improvement to come. He does no early work from barrier one. Kapakiri was good when resuming and should improve off that run. Akkadian Emperor didn’t appear to run 2400m on the wet last start and I’m prepared to give him another chance.

Thomas: Kapakiri had to make his run nearer the inside which was inferior ground and he did very well to beat all but the fast-finishing Zondee when resuming two weeks ago. He will be improved by that run and is out to his preferred distance range now. Our Anchorage is in career-best form with successive Randwick wins and is on the quick back-up after his impressive effort last week. Soul Choice only just missed last start and has worked her way back into form. So Newchee Thinks is in foal but has never raced in better form with successive wins at Warwick Farm and Kensington.

RACE 7: CAPTIVANT @ KIA ORA HCP (1350m)

Dufficy: This is an impossible race, Ray. Step Aside unfortunately fell last week but the stable must be happy with him so I’m prepared to stick with this horse now he is up to 1350m now. Infatuation doesn’t win often but finds the box seat from this draw and will be thereabouts again. Sisterhood might be ready to improve stepping up in distance. Cadetship should be running on late.

Thomas: Infatuation has been racing well without winning of late including her close fourth in the Magic Millions Fillies And Mares race last start. She’s drawn to get a soft run and this is her opportunity. In a very open race, I’m also giving Step Aside another chance. Bunker Hut continues to race consistently but always seems to find one better on the day. Cadetship was narrowly beaten here two weeks ago and is close to regaining winning form.

RACE 8: SOUTHERN CROSS STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: Willaidow is ready to go after two trials. He looks the leader and is a very horse to get past when that is the case. Disneck is in rare form but I wish there was a touch more pressure up front for him here. Accredited is another in top form but he has to come back in distance now. Hard To Say is very capable but he has to give weight to some in-form sprinters.

Thomas: Intriguing clash between Sydney’s two summer sprint finds. Accredited has reeled off three straight wins and comes off a runaway effort over 1400m a month ago. He drops backs to 1200m for his stakes debut but he’s very fit and it has been a month between runs. Disneck is also flying this summer with a hat-trick of Randwick 1200m wins. He’s also been effective at Rosehill and will be hard to beat again. Iowna Merc is better suited back to 1200m and on the bigger track. Willaidow might get control up front, as you suggested, which means he will take plenty of catching.

RACE 9: INGLIS CLASSIC YEARLING SALE HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: Spring Lee wasn’t suited by the soft track in a race not run to suit first-up. He deserves another chance. Time To Boogie has won a trial since never getting clear at any stage last start. No Drama has very good fresh form and the map looks good for him from barrier one. Eye To The Fire is going well and should be around the mark again.

Thomas: Spring Lee was doing her best work on the line when third as favourite to South Of India first-up over 1100m. She is up in grade but drops 5kg, drawn to advantage and the drier track suits. She can make amends. Time To Boogie was hopelessly boxed in and went to the line untested at Canterbury. He’s had a trial since and will be hard to beat. Eye Of The Fire split South Of India and Spring Lee last start, he’s holding his form and will go close again. Inhibitions is a handy mare back in the right grade.

RACE 10: TAB HANDICAP (1500m)

Dufficy: Yorkshire is a lovely horse going through the grades and 1500m should pose him no problems from that good draw. He is short enough in betting but is the one to beat. Cinque Torri is massive odds after having no luck at all in the Magic Millions Cup. He might be worth putting into your multis. Aberlour is fitter now and set to give a sight on top of the speed. For Victory had a ‘near barrier trial’ last week and should back up well.

Thomas: Yorkshire should send punters home happy in the “Get Out Stakes”. He’s very promising and was dominant at Wyong last start. He should be further improved by that run and looks the winner. Aberlour led for a long way at Warwick Farm when a close third and has since trialled brilliantly. If Yorkshire is vulnerable, then Aberlour could be the upset horse. Of the others, For Victory rates highly and there was no fluke about Zondee’s fast-finishing last-start win.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips for Rosehill on Saturday