Melbourne Cup 2022 form guide, tips, horses odds, favourite, find a winner in 5 minutes

No time to do the Melbourne Cup form? Check out our five-minute guide with likes, dislikes and verdict on every runner along with a trifecta tip. FIND A WINNER!

Melbourne Cup Lexus Cup main race. Winning jockey James McDonald on No. 4 Verry Elleegant

No time to do the Melbourne Cup form?

Check out our five-minute guide with likes, dislikes and verdict on every runner along with a trifecta tip all the way down the bottom.

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1. GOLD TRIP (FR) 57.5kg

French stayer brought to Australia in 2022 with Cups/Cox Plate ambitions, Gold Trip finished second in the 2022 Caulfield Cup carrying 57.5kg.

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Barrier: 14

Likes: Traditionally running a place in Caulfield Cup is fine Melbourne Cup lead-up form. Has four places at Group 1 level so class not an issue.

Dislikes: Loomed up to take the lead 200m out in the Caulfield Cup but then was ambushed by the eventual winner. Was making some ground in the Cox Plate with 200m to go but, unsurprisingly if the Cup is his real goal, found that field a bit fleet of foot for him over the 2,040m. Has just one win from 15 starts (2200m), has never run beyond 2,400m and is being asked to lug plenty of weight.

VERDICT: Think the Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate distances were more his go. Is rock hard fit though and won’t be disappointed if the forecast rain comes. Top 10 hope, not sure top 5.

2. DUAIS 55.5kg

The G1 Queensland Oaks winner in 2021, Duais picked up two more G1 wins this year taking the Australian Cup (2000m) and Tancred Stakes (2400m) – both by solid margins – in consecutive starts in March.

Trainer: Edward Cummings

Jockey: Hugh Bowman

Barrier: 10

Likes: Form on paper this preparation (10th, 6th, 8th and 8th) may not look flash but she kept punching on home in the Caulfield Cup running the second-fastest final 600m of that race. Hugh Bowman on board is a bonus and he combines well with the horse having won three races (and one place) from five starts. Has three G1 wins to her name so on her day she’s top class.

Dislikes: Yet to be tested beyond 2400m and hasn’t been missed by the handicapper at 55.5kg.

VERDICT: I’ll be keeping Duais safe in multiples where she has to be included for a place, and I think she could be a winning chance if it’s her day.

3. KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE) 55.5kg

Back for another crack at the Cup after flopping last year when finishing 19th, Knights Order comes into this year’s edition of the race in far better form.

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Tim Clark

Barrier: 24

Likes: Led the field into the straight in the Caulfield Cup and while he could not match the finishing speed of the winner he showed plenty of fight to hold on for third. Has won twice at the 3,200m including a dominant win in the Sydney Cup in April.

Dislikes: Not a fan of Flemington with zero wins or places from five attempts at the big track. Far better in the wet so if you’re taking a punt on him then pray for a bit of rain. The wide barrier hurts him far less than others as he was always going to be pushing along early to find the front

VERDICT: A tough experienced stayer who will look to find the front and likely lead the field into the straight. If things go his way is a hope.

4. MONTEFILIA 55.5kg

A classy type with four Group 1s wins to her name already, Montefilia was flying late in the Caulfield Cup.

Trainer: David Payne

Jockey: Jason Collett

Barrier: 11

Likes: If you’d bet on her to win the Caulfield Cup you’d be bemoaning your luck, as she ran into a wall with 300m to go, resettled and came again rattling home for fourth; but if you’d taken early Melbourne Cup odds you would have loved that run. Good barrier that should see her settle midfield with cover.

Dislikes: The Caulfield finish suggests she should handle the 3200m but Montefilia has just one win and one place from six efforts at 2400m and over. On paper her wet track form is OK but I think she wants it no worse than a slow (5/6) to good to challenge these.

VERDICT: A game mare, Montefilia usually manages at least one win per preparation, I’m just not sure she’ll do it here over 3,200m with 55.5kg. That said, gee her Caulfield finish caught the eye … place hope.

5. NUMERIAN 55.5kg

Beautifully bred Irish horse who has been racing in Australia since September 2021 and ran a nice fifth in the Caulfield Cup.

Trainer: Annabel Neasham

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Barrier: 7

Likes: Has been in good form this prep with seconds in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) and G2 Hill Stakes (2000m). Was only 1.2 lengths off the winner in the Caulfield Cup.

Dislikes: Has never won past 2200m and I don’t think he can run a competitive two miles.

VERDICT: Distance an issue for mine. Pass.

6. WITHOUT A FIGHT (IRE) 55.5kg

Intriguing UK galloper, not a star junior, not a dour stayer – rather a seasoned middle distance performer who is a proven product.

Trainer: Simon and ed Crisford

Jockey: William Buick

Barrier: 18

Likes: Versatile type who can handle running in either direction, on dry or wet tracks and has handled travel in the past running second in the G2 Dubai City of Gold (2,400m) in March this year. Has two wins at 2,787 metres and a solid strike rate of seven wins and seven places from 14 starts. The services of star UK jockey William Buick is a bonus.

Dislikes: Class query with G3 being the best of his wins and the aforementioned place in a G2. Never seen a field as large as the Cup and the wide barrier will likely see him settle back or wide needing luck.

VERDICT: Solid type who I rated a ‘good chance’ before the barrier draw, now slightly less enticing but still one for a place in multiples.

7. CAMORRA (IRE) 55kg

UK horse bought by the Lindsay Park stable, Camorra stamped his Cup credentials with victory in the G2 Curragh Cup (2,800m) in June.

Trainer: Ben and JD Hayes

Jockey: Ben Melham

Barrier: 17

Likes: The Curragh Cup win was impressive with the horse showing nice tactical speed to quicken when needed – and that’s the race that the 2017 (Rekindling) and 2020 (Twilight Payment) Cup winners won ahead of their victories. On paper his fifth in the Vintage Crop Stakes (Listed, 2800m) is not that impressive but he flew home and carried four more pounds than the winner Kyprios – arguably the best stayer in the world right now.

Dislikes: Followed up the Curragh win with a flop in the G1 Irish St Leger where he was beaten by 21 lengths after tracking the leaders into the straight and then failing to accelerate. Wide barrier a pain.

VERDICT: Appears a better performer on top of the ground than wading through it. If Cup were dry he’d be a good roughie at a silly price, if wet I think he’ll struggle a bit.

8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND (IRE) 55kg

Import following the ‘new’ Cup preparation style where lightly raced youngsters are sent to Australia in the hope they get into the Cup with a light weight (more on that below).

Trainer: James Ferguson

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Barrier: 9

Likes: Showed plenty of fight to win the G3 Bahrain Stakes (2600m) in July and then displayed a lovely mix of tactical speed and staying prowess winning the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes by almost 3 lengths. Beat Cox Plate placegetter El Bodegon in that race further franking the form. Terrific strike rate with three wins, three places from seven starts. Kerrin McEvoy on board is a huge plus. Perfect barrier.

Dislikes: The weight. Unlike young raiders of yore, Deauville Legend has not snuck under the handicapper’s nose here – 55kg is a fair weight. Usual question marks over these lightly raced Euro types with limited form to go off and question marks over how he’ll handle the travel. No wet form to speak of.

VERDICT: Must respect in multiples and include in winning hopes, but I wouldn’t be betting on the nose at current price of less than 5/1.

9. STOCKMAN (NZ) 54kg

Plucky local stayer who looked in fine fettle when winning the St Leger Stakes (2600m) at Randwick on 15 October.

Trainer: Joe Pride

Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Barrier: 2

Likes: Tough stayer who has had a Bart Cummings approved 10,000m preparation for this race. His seventh in the G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) may not look that impressive but the run was better than it looked on paper and after being shuffled to the back of the field he closed well showing he can cop the two miles.

Dislikes: Class is a query with just the one place from five attempts at G1 level – a second in the G1 Tancred Stakes where he was trounced by Duais. Wants some cut in the ground if he’s to be any hope.

VERDICT: Tough, brave and rock hard fit – but a class below the top liners. Rough place hope best I reckon.

10. VOW AND DECLARE 54kg

The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner is set to take yet another crack at the race after finishing 18th in the 2020 edition.

Trainer: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Barrier: 4

Likes: A previous winner of the race, gutsy veteran Vow And Declare can handle the distance and did not disgrace himself with a workmanlike sixth in the 2022 Caulfield Cup.

Dislikes: There’s a good reason I keep mentioning that previous Melbourne Cup win – it’s his most recent. In his 14 starts since then Vow And Declare has zero wins and two places.

VERDICT: He really does look good this prep, can’t see him breaking that win drought but will keep safe a place in trifectas.

11. YOUNG WERTHER (NZ) 54kg

An owner’s dream but punters nightmare, Young Werther has collected plenty of prize money but won just once in 13 starts.

Trainer: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Damian Lane

Barrier: 21

Likes: He may have a rotten winning record, but Young Werther has a very good G1 record with four places from five starts at the top level. Also a good record at 2,000 metres plus with six places from seven attempts; he likes the Flemington track too with four places from six runs here.

Dislikes: Distance. He ran a place in two derbies as a three-year-old (third in G1 Victoria Derby over 2,500 in October 2020 then second in G1 Australian Derby over 2,400m in April 2021) but the mile and a half seems his limit.

VERDICT: Can’t help but think the Cox Plate (2,040 metres) was his real goal this spring and while he has been closing well in all races this prep I’m not sure he’ll run out a competitive 3,200m carrying 54kg against this field.

12. HOO YA MAL (GB) 53.5kg

Former UK horse who shocked pretty much everyone when finishing second in the G1 Cazoo Derby (2,400m) at odds of 150/1 in June of this year.

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Craig Williams

Barrier: 15

Likes: Was bought by Australian interests after that Derby placing and rewarded the move next prep with a place in the G3 Gordon Stakes (2,400m) and win in the G3 March Stakes (2,800m). Ultra consistent failing to place just once in nine starts.

Dislikes: Flopped in the G1 St Leger (2,900m) at his last start

VERDICT: Gai dropped a cool 1.2 million pounds on this horse and she knows a bit about horses so you have to respect that. In with a chance.

13. SERPENTINE (IRE) 53.5kg

There’s a whiff of a Williams sneak attack here, Serpentine was a star three-year-old in the UK winning the G1 Epsom Derby (2,400m) in 2020.

Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Jockey: John Allen

Barrier: 23

Likes: Kept fighting over the final 400m of the G3 Archer Stakes (2,500m) to secure a place in the race. Rock hard fit for the race.

Dislikes: Was tested over distance (4,000m and 3,200m) as a four-year-old in the UK and disappointed.

VERDICT: Doesn’t get in at a featherweight and had not shown much before the Archer. I can’t have in my top four despite my (perhaps overblown) fear of Team Williams.

14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (NZ) 53kg

Tough former Kiwi with some decent two mile form after a win in the G2 Adelaide Cup and place in the G1 Sydney Cup.

Trainer: Phillip Stokes

Jockey: Daniel Moor

Barrier: 13

Likes: His third in the Sydney Cup was some run – stuck third (or worse) off the rail the whole way and he gets a 2kg swing on Knights Order from that race. His Adelaide Cup win was a peach. Nice barrier should allow him to find cover.

Dislikes: Form this prep reads average on paper (10th of 14, 7 of 13 and 10 of 11 in the G3 Bart Cummings) though there have been excuses in each.

VERDICT: One of the better rough hopes and one I’ll throw in for a place in multiples.

15. GRAND PROMENADE (GB) 53kg

Another 2021 Melbourne Cup runner, Grand Promenade ran sixth in the race last year.

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Barrier: 1

Likes: A solid type of stayer, Grand Promenade benefited from a nice Kerrin McEvoy ride in the 2021 Cup.

Dislikes: His form leading in this year is not as good as it was in 2021 and he showed little in the Herbert Power before finishing 12 lengths off the winner in the MV Gold Cup at his last start. Doesn’t like it wet.

VERDICT: Form not as good as last year, carrying more weight and without the services of Kerrin McEvoy – pass.

16. ARAPAHO (FR) 52.5kg

A French horse who transferred to Australia in 2021, Arapaho ran a reasonable Cup trial when second in the St Leger on 15 October.

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Barrier: 19

Likes: The St Leger run was nice and he beat some tidy horses to win the G3 Premier’s Cup (2,000m) back in August. Loves it wet.

Dislikes: Has never won beyond 2,350 and is unplaced in two goes at G1 level so distance and class queries. Wide barrier.

VERDICT: Far from the worst. Don’t think he can win, doubt he’ll run a place – though he absolutely loves it wet so if it’s a soaking wet day he could earn a decent wedge for connections.

17. EMISSARY (GB) 51.5kg

Former UK horse who came to Australia in 2021 and after a hit and miss run that year has forced his way into Cup consideration with a cracking win in the G3 Geelong Cup

Trainer: Mike Moroney

Jockey: Patrick Moloney

Barrier: 3

Likes: Charged home in the Geelong Cup and has a canny trainer in Mike Moroney guiding him. That Geelong win was franked when the horse that finished second, Surefire, went and won the Archer Stakes, beating a number of Cup contenders, last Saturday.

Dislikes: The Geelong Cup win was easily the best of his career. Form at top flight not tremendous with a G2 place his best effort. From five starts at 2,400m+ he has one win and a second.

VERDICT: I want to say no but the Geelong Cup win was good. A top-10 chance, not sure if he’s top-five.

SCRATCHED: 18. LUNAR FLARE 51.5kg

A mare whose sire, Fiorente, won the Cup in 2013, and qualified with a win in the G3 Bart Cummings

Trainer: Grahame Begg

Jockey: Michael Dee

Barrier: 12

Likes: Bred to run the distance, stuck on well in the Bart and has won at G2 level (last year’s Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2,500) the 7-year-old Lunar Flare gets in light with just 51.5kg on her back. Nice barrier.

Dislikes: Yet to run the Cup distance, will she be able to handle the extra 700 metres compared to her Bart and Gold Cup wins? No G1 form to her name.

VERDICT: One of the better local hopes and while others are off her I think she’s a top-5 contender.

19. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (NZ) 51.5kg

Turnbull Stakes (G1 2,000m) winner earlier this spring who lost no fans after an unlucky seventh in the Caulfield Cup last start.

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Jamie Kah

Barrier: 16

Likes: Talk about hitting form! Started this preparation with a Listed race (2021 Pakenham Cup) to his name, now a G1 champion. Has a fair strike rate and likes to run near the front of the pack hence avoiding trouble (helpful in a big field like this).

Dislikes: Was flogged at his one go past 2,500m (21.4 lengths ninth in the Listed Bagot Handicap (2,800m) in January) – but he seems a different horse this prep.

VERDICT: A month ago I would say ‘no way’, now it’s a ‘why not.’ There are worse going around at lower odds too.

20. TRALEE ROSE (NZ) 51.5kg

Yet another 2021 Cup runner, Tralee Rose finished ninth in the race last year.

Trainer: Symon Wilde

Jockey: Dean Yendall

Barrier: 22

Likes: Struggling to find one if I’m to be honest – maybe it’s that she’s coming into the race very fresh (but that’s just an optimist’s way of saying she’s coming into it underdone).

Dislikes: Her form is not a scratch on last year’s form, and even then she still finished more than 16 lengths from the winner in 2021. Drawn the carpark.

VERDICT: Pass.

SCRATCHED: 21. POINT NEPEAN (IRE) 51kg

A Williams horse, Point Nepean qualified for the Cup with victory in the Andrew Ramsden (Listed, 2,800 metres) back in May of this year.

Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Barrier: 20

Likes: Has two wins over 2,400M and one over 2,600m to go with the Ramsden win.

Dislikes: Travelling poorly this preparation and was particularly disappointing in the Herbert Power.

VERDICT: Not sure he’s really a winning chance but I always respect Team Williams and could have him for third and fourth in wide multiples.

22. HIGH EMOCEAN (NZ) 50kg

Gutsy mare who gets into the Cup on the back of a win in the G3 Bendigo Cup (2,400m) and with no weight on her back.

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Teo Nugent

Barrier: 8

Likes: The Bendigo Cup win was strong, chasing down rivals and then holding off another to win. Flogged a few Cup rivals (Vow and Declare, Point Nepean and Serpentine) in the Sally Chirnside (2,500m) on 10 September (NB see dislikes). Has two wins at 2,400m and the one at 2,500m so can stay.

Dislikes: Was VERY well weighted in the Sally Chirnside compared to Cup rivals and gives back a lot of weight to them here. Has never run above Group 3 level.

Verdict: Good trainer, decent form, no weight and a sweet barrier is usually a winning combination. Is giving away some class to a fair though so let’s knock that back to a place chance at best.

23. INTERPRETATION (IRE) 50kg

Yet another former UK horse, Interpretation was set for the Cup after running a very credible fourth in the 2021 G1 St Leger Stakes (2,900m).

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Barrier: 6

Likes: Followed up his St Leger run with a fourth in the G2 Prix Chaudenay (3,000m). Beaten by Lunar Flare in the G3 Bart Cummings but not by much and he was closing nicely there. Nice barrier and no weight.

Dislikes: The Geelong Cup run was disappointing when he was sneaking into it on the fence with 200m to go but then just watched the winner blow by and pulled up lame.

VERDICT: Stuck on really well in the Prix Chaudenay finishing not far off Manobo (a budding superstar). Yet to win in Australia and a win here would shock, a place would surprise but is possible.

24. REALM OF FLOWERS 50kg

The 2021 Andrew Ramsden winner was knocked out of last year’s Cup by injury, back for this year and gets in with a light weight.

Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman

Jockey: Damien Thornton

Barrier: 5

Likes: Decent form this prep with a third in the City Tats (2,400m) and the same in the G1 Metropolitan (2,400m). Looked good running out the 3,200m in the G1 Sydney Cup in 2021 where he finished fifth and could have been closer with luck/a better ride.

Dislikes: Does not win often, and has not won since the Ramsden

VERDICT: Can stay and has a light weight. Is a decent roughie and place hope.

FINAL VERDICT: On top I have Deauville Legend (8), next best Knights Order (3) then Montefilia (4) and Duais (2) round out my top four.

BETTING STRATEGY: The scratching of Caulfield Cup winner Durston and German stayer Loft took some quality out of the race and as a result the favourite Deauville Legend (8) is now a silly price of $3.60. You can’t bet that in the Cup so instead I’ll be putting on a trifecta in the hope of snagging the always inflated pool that the Cup provides.

NB The late scratching of Lunar Flare caused a change to my trifecta tips too (edited version below).

Box trifecta: A six horse box trifecta (where you try to pick the first three finishers and your runners may come in any order) equals 120 combinations so $50 gets you 41.7 % of the dividend.

Selections: Duais (2), Knights Order (3), Montefilia (4), Deauville Legend (8) then throw in some value lightweight hopes in Smokin’ Romans (19) and Realm Of Flowers (24).

Standout trifecta: Where you put your top picks to finish first, add some others for second and more for third.

First: Duais (2), Knights Order (3), Montefilia (4), Deauville Legend (8)

Second: All above plus – Without A Fight (6), Hoo Ya Mal (12), Smokin’ Romans (19) and Realm Of Flowers (24)

Third: All above plus – Stockman (9), Vow And Declare (10) Daqiansweet Junior (14) and

That’s a whopping 252 combinations so your $50 will ‘only’ get you 19.8% of the dividend but the Cup trifecta dividend is often in the thousands so it’s still a nice collect …

Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2022 form guide, tips, horses odds, favourite, find a winner in 5 minutes