Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses all 10 races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses all 10 races for Rosehill Gardenson Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.

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RACE 1: Captivant @ Kia Ora (Bm72) 1500m

BARBRAY (2) was a $240,000 Magic Millions Yearling. He is by the now reigning Champion Sire, Zoustar, with the great Merlene as his second dam, Bold Promise his third. Back in class (and back home) after a distant sixth of 16 in the Winx Guineas. Beat Malbork Castle by seven lengths on a Heavy 9 at Goulburn. BELLA KHADIJAH (1) ran third to Switzerland on debut at $151. As for her wet form, she was an easy winner on a Heavy 8 at Hawkesbury the other day. AMUSING (5) is actually bred to love the Heavy.

Bet: Barbray to win

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RACE 2: Midway (Bm72) 1400m

Hayai Lodge (aka Jim and Greg Lee) had that big winner at Randwick last week and back up this Saturday with a very promising miler/stayer in CONVERGENT (7). He could potentially go 2400m/3200m one day with his breeding. As for Saturday, 1400m will feel like a mile, but he’s had two 1000m+ trials since his June 7 Midway second. BLUFF ‘N’ BLUSTER (15) is 18 starts 1-0-0 at Rosehill but is nine starts 1-2-1 on Heavy ground. Jockey James McDonald has a 70 per cent win strike-rate for trainer Angela Davies and they combine with DENMAN STAR (1).

Bet: Convergent to win, Bluff ‘N’ Bluster to place

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RACE 3: Tab Highway Hcp (C3) 1200m

EVERLASTING STARS (13) is owned by R. L Charley as in the Hall of Famer, Bob Charley. The third generation descendant of the crack two-year-old late 1980s, Momentaire, was a shade unlucky in her first Highway run here on July 5 then went out west to Warren and was most emphatic winning that 1200m Benchmark 66 on the Heavy 8. Former Godolphin galloper SHIPSHAPE (9) is back for his third straight Rosehill Highway having run two absolutely giant (from the back) fifths. CAMBAR (7) is a Kosciuszko type who loves the wet.

Bet: Everlasting Stars to win (best bet), Shipshape to place

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RACE 4: Congratulations James Mcdonald (Bm78) 1400m

TUILERIES (7) was bred to win a Cox Plate. Her father, So You Think, won two of them while her fourth dam is the mother of Rubiton who won the 1987 Cox Plate. Tuileries has won twice and turned in three huge runs each and every time she was beaten. This is easily doable for her; she just has to handle the heavy. SISTER DAAE (11) is third-up now, at home, off a good run followed by a very good run. Same thing with her; she’s got to be able to get through this very heavy track. SUPER NORWEST (9) has raced over this same track and distance, three times for two wins (both Highways).

Bet: Tuileries to win

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RACE 5: Congratulations Braith Nock (Bm72) 1200m

CONCORDIA WIND (7) was the third top priced yearling at the 2023 HTBA Sale at $100,000 when she actually has a ‘million dollar pedigree’. Consider this; she is by Justify out of a Redoute’s Choice daughter of Stella Cadente. She’s already won $122,825 in seven starts. One win was here, one other was on a Heavy 8 at Gosford. ART’S ALIVE (4) has raced at this track and distance twice for a win and a third. She’s come back really well, noting that her two thirds this preparation were both by under a neck between her and the winners. USEAPIN (2) is flying; just not sold on her on heavy ground.

Bet: Concordia Wind or if scratched Art’s Alive to win

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RACE 6: National Jockeys Trust Hcp 1500m

PHEARSON (5) was more or less beaten by the wide gate in the Winter Challenge. Long story short but he was trapped out on a limb and went forward early; he was so brave to hold down fourth behind The Ingham winner, Robusto. Phearson has won a Festival Stakes at this track and trip and broke his maiden by three lengths on a Heavy 9. French Derby and Golden Eagle participant WELWAL (1) has been running better races than it looks in his four starts for Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr. Won the Group 3 Kevin Heffernen at Caulfield on a Heavy 8.

Bet: Phearson to win

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RACE 7: Jockeys Appreciation (Bm78) 2000m

For better or for worse, I’m an AGITA (13) man and have been from his debut on the Kensington track on August 2 two years ago. This David Payne-trained son of Cox Plate winner Adelaide has won on a Heavy 8 at Warwick Farm and he’ll be third-up at his rightful trip off two decent mile runs. PIGGYBACK (7) is by a ‘duffer’ in Trapeze Artist but maybe that double cross of Lunchtime has kicked in given her near faultless record on heavy tracks. She is a Randwick 2000m winner on a Heavy 9. PHILIPSBURG (11) loves the heavy.

Bet: Agita each-way

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RACE 8: Jockeys Celebration Day (Bm78) 1400m

CAPTAIN FURAI (7) has three wins from seven career starts which is honourable enough by itself. Given what to expect on Saturday, it is worth keeping in mind that the Chris Waller-trained gelding has two wins and a second from his only three starts on Heavy. Had a couple of ‘Waller trials’ to get him ready for this. LIBERTY STATE (9) has a noble record of four wins and two seconds from 12 starts. One of those win was here at Rosehill over 1200m on a Heavy 8 from barrier 13 of 14 and way back on the turn. GENTLY ROLLED (8) in working up to a win but not sure about the Heavy 8, 9 or 10.

Bet: Captain Furai to win

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RACE 9: Nsw Jockeys Association (Bm94) 1300m

Just for what it is worth, I am expecting bigger and better things this preparation from the former Kiwi resident GERIATRIX (7) than what we saw from him in his brief and underwhelming Christmas campaign. He had a fine record back in New Zealand when Lance O’Sullivan had him. Seems to handle the wet, But how wet? The number of ASTERO (5) tell it better than words can; 11 starts at Rosehill for 2-2-2, 13 starts at the trip for 3-1-3 and best of all; 10 starts on Heavy for 3-2-1. Happy 50th start Astero. Imagine if the 2023 Country Championship Final winner ANOTHER ONE (4) could find his old form.

Bet: Geriatrix each-way or if scratched Astero each-way and Another One to place

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RACE 10: Congratulations Chris Waller (Bm78) 1100m

ROSELYN’S STAR (7) is one of the horses with the most promise, upside is the word they usually use. This third generation descendant of Blue Diamond winner True Jewels went ‘212’ at his first preparation; the seconds were to Gatsby’s and Espionage and the win was a big one over Perspiration. Trials? Three of them, all wins. HANAU (5) will have his first start for Mark Miniervini here. Last start winner beating a next start winner. CATCH THE GLORY (8) and BALKANS (4) are among the many other chances.

Bet: Roselyn’s Star to win or if scratched Hanau to win

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday