Where Geelong’s statsheet failures are hurting its finals hopes

One number has bobbed up over and over again this year and when Geelong wins a certain stat, it usually wins the game. See where the Cats are falling down.

As Geelong sputtered through a painful loss at the Gabba on Saturday, the number kept ticking.

Chris Scott even pulled the trigger on a surprise move – sending Tom Stewart into the centre for the first time in a live game, having given him a run there two weeks before against North Melbourne when the contest was over.

The Cats were second to the ball all day against the Lions. Picture: Albert Perez/AFL Photos

And yet the number kept ticking in the wrong direction.

It is foolish to reduce a game of football down to one statistic but it is becoming stark this year that when Geelong loses the contested ball count, it loses on the scoreboard.

The Cats got smashed by the Lions in a way rarely seen by the men in hoops, losing the contested count by 36.

Struggling to win the ball when it was in dispute, Geelong then watched it disappear, losing clearances by 27.

It was a midfield massacre and only a stingy defensive effort really kept the Cats in the contest until deep in the final quarter, as the Lions threatened to choke one away for the second week running.

The Cats coaches swung Tom Stewart into the middle. Picture: Albert Perez/AFL Photos

At the Gabba, five players had at least 11 contested possessions and all five were Lions.

Normally inside beasts, Tanner Bruhn, Tom Atkins and Mark O’Connor combined for 11.

This isn’t an aberration as much as it was a new low.

When combing through the numbers, it becomes clear that generally if the Cats get their hands on the ball first, they win.

In losses this year, Geelong has won the contested stat just once – against GWS in round 11.

In those losses, the Cats have had a total of 76 less contested possessions.

Flip that to wins and Geelong has lost the count in wins just twice – round 12 in which the Western Bulldogs had more shots at goal and in round 15 when Melbourne had as many shots as Geelong.

In nine wins, Geelong has totalled 73 more contested possessions than the opposition.

Across the entire 2022 season, Geelong ranked fourth in the league with a positive differential of 7.4 in our favourite stat and in losses, that was where the Cats often fell down, losing crucial periods around the ball.

While contested ball can be won all over the ground, it generally falls back on the midfield and Geelong’s has been depleted at times this year.

Tom Stewart was sent into the midfield. Picture: Russell Freeman/AFL Photos

The Cats are still missing reigning best-and-fairest winner Cam Guthrie but otherwise have pretty much a full slate of players to choose from.

Scott and midfield coach Shaun Grigg don’t bury their heads in the sand, they will have noticed the poor performance in the contest on Saturday and how it led to a lethargic effort overall.

The good news for Geelong is a home game against Fremantle might be a perfect time to right the ship – the Dockers rank 16th in the competition for contested ball differential.

It is an area the Cats will need to fix to not only make the finals but to have any impact in September and now is a good time to start.

Originally published as Where Geelong’s statsheet failures are hurting its finals hopes