AFL 2020 trade period will be the most frenzied we have ever seen
Many AFL clubs have more than half their list coming out of contract, setting the scene for the most frenzied trade period ever. Who could be on the move and how will COVID-19 impact new deals?
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Footy’s trade period was already guaranteed to be the most frenzied in history before the curve-ball likely to slide into range in coming months.
It is a footy rite of passage for an unnamed list manager to be quoted on a mid-year prediction about war chests and how “this off-season will be the craziest ever”.
In 2020 with the AFL only allowing players to sign contracts again last week, we finally have the perfect storm that will make that a certainty.
At last count there were about 350 players out of contract, with many clubs having more than half their lists desperate to sign contracts.
We have a list of seven unrestricted free agents that include four (Brad Crouch, Zac Williams, Joe Daniher, Jeremy Cameron) with serious decisions to make.
Plus 40-odd unrestricted free agents with varying states of currency from Levi Casboult to
Isaac Smith, but with mostly older players hanging on for one more season.
Josh Kelly and Andrew Gaff have to confirm they will remain at their clubs under new-age contract clauses, while the Herald Sun has reported for weeks GWS defender Williams will likely leave the Giants to head to a Victorian club.
All of those players have less than four months to find new or old homes in an environment where list sizes could still come down and the salary cap could be slashed.
Throw all of those factors into the melting pot and then consider the possibility we have never seen before.
The coronavirus compassion trade.
Players have spent months away from partners, relatives, nephews, nieces and close friends so the AFL could protect its $1 billion football economy.
Why wouldn’t some decide that after a year of sacrifice they will take the opportunity to return to their states of origin to finish their careers?
If Tom Papley made his second trade request in 12 months, adamant he needed to be close to Gippsland parents and family he has barely seen in a year, how could Sydney deny him that request?
Clubs can’t preach building happy workplaces focused on positive mental health where players are free to express themselves then repeatedly kybosh trades.
What happens if that desire to return home for players intersects with the second curve-ball?
That of star players deciding that they actually aren‘t all that interested in taking a pay cut for a second season in a row and are happy to move elsewhere to get full tote odds?
Some player managers are already laying the groundwork for that possibility.
Papley has kept his cards close to his chest since his trade request but his football has done the talking.
If the salary cap came down 20 per cent but a rival like North Melbourne was prepared to offer five seasons at $900,000 who would begrudge him?
Gillon McLachlan has gone on record as saying the AFL wants to pay off its loan to banks as soon as possible — some believe within two seasons — so it stands to reason players will have to accept some sort of pay cut next year.
Across the league they usual off-season issues will continue.
As usual the Giants will do the salary cap tango, trying to find a way to clear space for free agent Jeremy Cameron and out-of-contract players Jeremy Finlayson, Jackson Hateley, Harry Perryman, Jye Caldwell, Aidan Corr and Harry Perryman.
North Melbourne will attempt to drag in the marquee free agent plus take two first-rounders, with all signs pointing to Zac Williams being the most gettable free agent who also perfectly fits their needs.
And mid-tier clubs who have eyed off St Kilda’s summer of trade splendour will wonder if they can shoot up the ladder using a similar technique.
The AFL has always wanted an NBA-style rolling trade scenario where player exchanges explode website numbers and draw fan attention.
It just didn’t realise it would need a global pandemic to get that kind of spectacular off-season meat market.
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Originally published as AFL 2020 trade period will be the most frenzied we have ever seen