The best SuperCoach players to use for the vice-captain loophole in 2019
Selecting a player who won’t score any points is tough but the ‘floating doughnut’ is a key to advanced SuperCoach strategy. Here’s how it works and the best options for this season.
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With the JLT Series underway, SuperCoaches are loving the opportunity to see some prospects actually chase the Sherrin around, and hopefully we’re all getting lots of ideas of players to include (and not to include) in our starting teams for 2019.
While we do our best to get a handle on which players to select, there’s one role in our team where JLT form counts for nought. Let’s explore this in more detail.
THE LOOPHOLE
Most savvy SuperCoaches understand how to use a non-playing player to activate an emergency or to double up their vice captain’s score, commonly referred to as the “emergency loophole” or “captain’s loophole” respectively (here’s a quick explanation).
It’s a tactic that can have a huge benefit for your team, but for the plan to work, you need to have a player who isn’t actually playing AFL games.
Throughout the season, you will naturally end up with several players not getting games through injury, suspension, or simply that they have been dropped from the senior team. However, it is not a given that you will always have a good option for the loophole, and these other non-playing players during the season can be used for emergency loopholes anyway. Given the potential benefits available, it can be a great move to start the season with a player you can count on to give your team a leg-up over the competition right from the start simply by never running on to the field.
WHAT POSITION SHOULD THE PLAYER PLAY?
It is difficult to start the season with a player in your squad who you know won’t be playing games. It is super important in SuperCoach for your rookie-priced players to increase in value in order for you to trade them into premium players during the season, and they won’t be increasing their value at all if they don’t play games. While it’s helpful to start with at least one non-playing player, you also need to give yourself the best chance for your team to increase in value to maximise your points generation.
Using history as a guide, the rookies who rise the most in value are not rucks.
Over the past three seasons, there have been a total of 57 players who started at a price less than $200,000 and who peaked in value at least $200k greater than that starting price. Of these players, there was a fairly even spread between midfielders, defenders and forwards, however Fremantle’s Sean Darcy was the only ruckman.
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Darcy played eight games in 2017 and peaked at a price of $354,900 after starting at $117,300. In the same season there were also three other ruckmen who peaked at least $200k greater than their starting price, but all started with a Round 1 price tag above $200k. In both 2016 and 2018, there was not a single ruck who achieved a peak $200k greater than their starting price, whether rookies or otherwise.
Therefore, there is a good chance that having your non-playing player on the ruck bench will have the least impact on your rookie cash generation.
IS THIS YEAR DIFFERENT?
Whilst taking into consideration the past results of rookie rucks, it is also important to consider starting any decent rookie options on their merits, no matter which position they play.
A rookie-priced player who is going to be their team’s No.1 ruck option could be a very good SuperCoach option. We know No.1 rucks generally score well.
There does seem to be several cheaply priced ruckmen who have a chance to be their team’s No.1 option this season. Players such as Jordan Sweet (WB, $102,400), Darcy Fort (Geel, $117,300), Kieran Briggs (GWS, $117,300), Zac Clarke (Ess, $142,600) and Archie Smith (Bris, $172,300) are all in contention. However, there are question marks over them as well.
All of these players have competition for their spot in the team, and even though it is widely expected that more teams will be playing two genuine ruckmen this year, that isn’t necessarily a good thing for the rucks’ scoring potential.
More often than not a ruck’s scoring output will drop when they need to share their time with another ruckman. With the added likelihood that these cheaper players will end up being the back-up ruck, and the aforementioned propensity for ruckmen to be the least likely position to rise in significant value, there is a strong case to forget them and stick your loophole player at R3.
Of course, these decisions come with risk no matter which way you go. Darcy Fort could get a good run as Geelong’s No.1 ruck and score 80-90 each week, which would mean he could rise in value more than $250k before his bye, or alternatively he could just as easily score 40s and only rise about $70k over the same period. On the other hand, you could decide on starting a loophole player at R3, which could also quickly come unstuck if one of your starting ruckmen missed a game or more and you have no cover on the bench.
Despite this injury coverage risk, you can actually more easily start your loophole player onfield in the ruck line, compared to other lines, because you’ve got less to lose with only one bench spot. Doing so means your scoring ruck doesn’t have to play after your vice-captain, which opens up more vice-captain options.
Given the potential benefits of using the captain loophole every week from Round 1, and the benefits of that player being a ruck, it seems to be worth the risk to start with a loophole player at your R3 spot.
SO WHICH RUCKS ARE BEST?
As mentioned above, JLT form will not help these players. We are looking for players who will be developing in the state leagues, unlikely to play AFL, and who are as cheap as we can get away with.
The most important factor to look at is the fixture. We need our loophole player to be in a team that usually plays late in the round to open up the most vice-captain options.
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WHICH TEAMS PLAY LATE IN THE ROUND?
Firstly, it should be noted that the three multi-bye rounds and the final round of the season haven’t been considered in this analysis. There are a multitude of players available for loopholes during the bye rounds and the fixture of the final round of the season hasn’t been set yet.
Of the 19 rounds in consideration, there are six teams who play at least nine games on a Sunday or later, Carlton with the most with 11. Of these six teams, Fremantle play the last game of the round seven times, with the next best being Hawthorn with six.
Carlton, Fremantle and Hawthorn seem to have the most favourable fixtures, however of these three teams, Fremantle is the only one to not have any games on Friday night or earlier. Carlton and Hawthorn also don’t have any cheap ruckmen this year.
Some coaches look for a dual-position player for their loophole to offer flexibility across two lines, however none of those top six teams based on fixture have a decent DPP option in the rucks. Carlton’s Tom De Koning is too expensive, priced at $171,500, and Gold Coast’s Caleb Graham is a DPP but a defender rather than the more beneficial forward.
To find a suitable DPP option we need to dive deeper into the fixture. The next rung down in terms of teams with favourable fixtures includes both West Coast and Geelong, who have cheap DPP ruck/forwards, so we can compare their fixtures to choose the best option. Both teams play six times on a Sunday or later and both play three games on a Friday night or earlier. Where we can separate them is that West Coast play twice more than Geelong on a Saturday night, and also play in the last game of the round once more than Geelong.
We are left with the two Western Australian teams presenting the best options.”
WHO SHOULD WE PICK?
If you are looking for a DPP option, then look no further than West Coast’s Patrick Bines. The Eagles have listed Bines as a Category B Rookie after his switch from SEABL basketball to footy. Bines grew up in Melbourne, playing junior rep basketball for Melbourne Tigers, Vic Metro and also for Australia at the Under-17 World Championships in Spain, where he averaged 6.6 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.
He also played junior footy at a younger age, even winning a league best-and-fairest while playing for the East Brighton Under-11s. Priced at just $102,400 and able to swing between both ruck and forward lines, he could be a great option; however, remember that Fremantle has the superior fixtures for a loophole player.
Therefore, Fremantle’s Lloyd Meek could be the best option in the AFL for your loophole player. Hailing from the family farm in Mininera in western Victoria, he is a developing ruckman, still yet to debut at AFL level and priced at just $123,900. Drafted at pick No.69 in 2017, he dominated in the WAFL reserves last season, but his production dropped off at senior WAFL level and there are several players ahead of him on the depth chart at Fremantle.
Hopefully both Bines and Meek end up having strong AFL careers, good enough to be considered as on-field options in SuperCoach in years to come, but at this stage they are both developing and are perfect options for you to use in your loopholes, giving you the advantage you need with the luxury of seeing your vice-captain’s score before deciding whether to double it or try a different player.
Anthony Hack is a contributor at TooSerious.net and can be found on Twitter @ant_hak
Originally published as The best SuperCoach players to use for the vice-captain loophole in 2019
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