SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for round 15 of the 2023 AFL season
North Melbourne is on the bye and KFC SuperCoach players are trading out Kangaroos en masse. But is that the right move? See the inside numbers to guide your round 15 trades.
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We’re almost there.
Three bye rounds are in the books but the trickiest for many teams is here, with all our Richmond, Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Carlton, GWS and North Melbourne players having a week off.
Many coaches will be scrambling to get 18 scoring players on the field in round 15, so if you’re up against it, you aren’t alone. But it’s a week where every extra point could make a huge difference in league match-ups and overall rankings.
And SuperCoach Plus is here to help.
Features available to SuperCoach Plus subscribers including score and price projections, Break Evens and live trade data. Plus exclusive weekly analysis articles just like this one!
Here are 11 nuggets to lift the lid on the KFC SuperCoach scoring system and help you make the best trade and captaincy calls for round 15.
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1. ROOS FIRE SALE
Five North Melbourne players feature in the 10 most traded out players this round, with coaches cutting ties in their thousands on the Kangaroos’ bye. Eddie Ford is clearly the most traded out player this round, an obvious move after he managed just 30 points on Sunday. Ford hasn’t laid a tackle in his last three games and you can make $150k profit by trading him to Ryan Maric this week. George Wardlaw is the second-most traded out Roo, and he’s not a reliable on-field option either, scoring 46 against the Bulldogs after dropping under 10 disposals for the first time. Unlike previous games, his tackles didn’t stick, recording three effective tackles from nine attempts. He has made $92k and can make way this week. It’s time to trade Will Phillips, although well played if you stuck with him through the first half of the year and can cash in on a whopping $251k profit. The other two Roos in the top 10 are tougher calls. Jack Ziebell looked back to his ball-winning best when he scored 107 against GWS in round 13, and he had 56 points at halftime against the Bulldogs. But in the second half he had just four disposals from 52 per cent game time to finish with 68 points – his fourth score of 88 or lower in his past five games. Of his season-low 14 disposals, four came from kick-ins. Trade without regret. That leaves Harry Sheezel. He scored 103 against the Dogs, winning 32 disposals (his most since round 8) at 81 per cent efficiency as he returned to defence with Aaron Hall out of the team. Sheezel’s value has also bottomed out, with a Break Even of 63 in his next game. Holding him for one week of pain now could pay off in the final nine rounds – he ranks 12th for points scored by defenders and second for forwards.
2. BALLISTIC BRIGGS
Almost 1500 coaches have traded out Kieren Briggs this round, which means another 32,000 are either holding or undecided on the Giants ruckman, who will miss this week with the bye. He has been a revelation since breaking into the GWS side in round 10 and boasts the second-highest five-round average of any ruckman (only Tim English’s 122 beats Briggs’ 116). Briggs has laid 30 tackles in that time – No.1 among ruckmen. He has also taken eight intercept marks (only Max Gawn has more with 12), kicked four goals and has a hitout-to-advantage rate of 35.8 per cent – ranked No.1. He has gained a massive $214,400 in value and will go up even more with a Break Even of 26 in his next game – but does run into the Gawn-Brodie combination straight after the bye.
3. RUSTY STEELE
After scoring 135 against GWS Giants in round 11 from 25 disposals, 13 contested possessions and 11 tackles, Jack Steele has posted returns of 62, 85 and 52 in that order post-bye – with his score against Richmond his lowest of the year. The wet conditions should have suited Steele on Saturday night, but he laid only three effective tackles from nine attempts. He also had a season-low 20 per cent kicking efficiency after going at 38 per cent a week earlier. Steele hasn’t impacted games in first halves over the past three rounds – scoring 37, 18, and 31 points in that order – so he is coming from a long way back when it comes to getting a respectable score on the board. He has dropped more than $60,000 in the past three weeks and is projected to lose another $26k with a BE of 132 against the Lions this week. But coaches who need numbers for round 15 will find it hard to trade him out.
4. PRIME ANGUS
Roughly 4000 coaches added Sydney youngster Angus Sheldrick to their teams last week and were rewarded with 91 points, largely on the back of an explosive third quarter that included two goals. Sheldrick ranked No.1 on the ground for the game for disposals per minute, finishing with 19 from just 55 per cent game time. He won the ball going both ways – having nine contested and 10 uncontested possessions – while also generating four clearances. In addition, all four tackle attempts stuck. His role was also a big positive even with Luke Parker returning to the Swans team; only the big three attended more centre bounces than Sheldrick’s 10 (James Rowbottom and Parker 21 and Chad Warner 18). Sheldrick has played as a centre bounce midfielder in his two full matches (79 per cent and 89 per cent), is bye free and has a Break Even of -43 this week.
5. WIND BREAK
Sheldrick has jumped in price to $190,400 but there are few cheaper options available apart from Eagles mid-season draftee Ryan Maric ($102,400 FWD) and Lion Jaspa Fletcher ($157,00 MID), who have each played one game. Is it worth spending the extra dollars for more reliable bench cover in the run home? There are two other players in a similar category to Sheldrick. Deven Robertson ($218,900 MID) has the lowest BE in the game (-53) after scoring 84 and 95 in the past two rounds (his three scores earlier this season were 23, 0 and -1). And Saint Marcus Windhager ($202,800 MID/FWD) jumped $27k after scoring 85 points against the Tigers. His BE is -11 but he could have the best job security of the trio after attending 22 centre bounces last round, the most of any Saint.
6. FAREWELL CHARLIE?
The second-lowest Break Even belongs to a player who features in more than 100,000 KFC SuperCoach teams – but hasn’t played since round 2. Charlie Constable is the white whale of fantasy in 2023 and it might finally be time to cut ties with the Gold Coast defender if you need all hands on deck in round 15. His chances of a recall are getting smaller by the week as the Suns’ injury list shrinks; Connor Budarick returned in the VFL last weekend and Lachie Weller is a chance to play this week. Brandon Ellis and Elijah Hollands are also still trying to get back in the senior team – both dominated in a 122-point win against the North Bullants – while another forgotten Sun Sam Flanders had 42 disposals, 13 clearances and two goals.
7. YEO TEMPTATION
Another player with a negative Break Even who could be a trade option for risk-takers this week is West Coast star Elliot Yeo. After playing just two games in the first 10 rounds, Yeo has returned to the form that made him a popular pre-season pick with scores of 125 and 113 to add $62,500 to his price tag. But he’s still very affordable at $399,500, has had his bye and has a proven record of premium-level scores – averaging 108 in both 2018 and 2019. He played 43 games over those two seasons but has had a cursed run since, missing a total of 40 matches through injury in the past five years. Can you trust him to stay healthy?
8. DC HERO
The biggest bargain of the week has a Break Even of 70, so you could wait and still get him at a great price. But coming off the bye is the perfect time to jump on Magpie Darcy Cameron for just $464,200 – $1700 under his round 1 value. Cameron was poised to jump in price after scoring 103 and 137 in the first two rounds but hurt his hamstring in round 3 and produced modest returns of 61 and 81 as he was eased back into the action after his return. But his scores the past two weeks are much more promising – 105 against the Eagles and 92 versus Gawn/Grundy, when he was stuck on the bench for crucial minutes in the nailbiting finish due to the blood rule. More importantly, in the past three matches he has attended 205 ruck contests to Mason Cox’s 64. Cameron’s best value in KFC SuperCoach will be as a forward who can be switched into the ruck if a historically injury-prone premium like Tim English or Rowan Marshall misses a week or two, saving a precious trade.
You can 'upgrade' Kieren Briggs to Darcy Cameron this week and make a $4k profit 🤯#supercoach
— Al Paton (@al_superfooty) June 18, 2023
9. DUSTY RADAR
Tim Taranto (season-high 38 disposals) and Dustin Martin (35, his most in a game since 2019) both produced big games for Trent Cotchin’s 300th match, but both left much bigger KFC SuperCoach scores on the table. Taranto scored 128 after losing 34.6 points from negative acts including kicking clangers, while Martin scored 87 after losing 22.1 points over the night. What else explains the big points difference? Taranto won more of the ball in a contest (18-11) and laid 10 tackles to Martin’s three. Martin was off target again in front of goal with 0.3 – just, one shot hit the post and another was touched on the goal line – while Taranto kicked 1.1. His match-sealing goal in the final quarter boosted his score by 9.5 points. Taranto finished the game with a huge final term – tallying 13 disposals, three tackles, one goal and game-high 53 points.
10. FYFE FLOPS
Nat Fyfe produced almost identical top-line stats against GWS than the week before against Richmond, but managed just 47 KFC SuperCoach points after posting 96 against the Tigers. The biggest difference was the state of the game, with Richmond holding on for a tense 15-point win while the Giants saluted in a 70-ploint blowout. Fyfe had only three disposals and one point to his name at quarter-time as the Giants went on to kick seven of the next 10 goals of the game to open a matchwinning margin. A season-low kicking efficiency of 33 per cent didn’t help, either. In round 13, Fyfe was the eighth-ranked player on the ground from quarter-time. He also went at 75 per cent by foot.
11. CAPTAINS CORNER
If Clayton Oliver returns from injury, he’s the go-to man for the vice-captaincy on Thursday night. He has an amazing record against Geelong – his lowest score in his past six against the Cats is 111 – and at GMHBA Stadium, averaging 137.8 in four matches there over his career. Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley both appeal against the Saints on Friday night, although it’s worth noting Marcus Windhager held Neale to just 16 disposals in the corresponding game last year. Nick Daicos is another player who could cop some close attention this week – last year he was followed by Ben Keays when Collingwood played Adelaide. Rory Laird might be a more reliable choice. He averages 133 in his past three against the Pies.
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Originally published as SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for round 15 of the 2023 AFL season
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