KFC SuperCoach round 15 trade guide: Who to buy, sell in toughest bye week
Marcus Bontempelli is an all-round superstar, but one element of his game has gone to a new level in 2023. Champion Data guru Fantasy Freako explains all, plus top trade targets.
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There seems to be a bit of a misconception around what constitutes a tackle in some circles.
Just because a player wraps his arms around an opponent and applies physical pressure doesn’t mean that a tackle is awarded. If the player legally gets a disposal away, then the defending player is awarded with a tackle attempt – but doesn’t get a tackle. For the tackle to be deemed effective, you must use physical contact to prevent an opponent getting an effective disposal away.
The one stat which best measures a player’s tackling effectiveness is tackle efficiency. This is a simple equation of dividing effective tackles by tackle attempts, and if we use the top 50 in the AFL for tackle attempts as the sample size and sort them by highest tackle efficiency, it’s Alex Neal-Bullen who comes out on top with a tackle efficiency of 80 per cent.
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The No.1 scoring player in the game, Marcus Bontempelli, isn’t far behind in second place with a tackle efficiency of 79 per cent – up from 71.5 per cent last season. He is averaging a career-high 7.8 tackles – applying double-figures in four matches. The Bont is the complete player and is averaging career-highs across the board including 27 disposals, 14 contested possessions and eight clearances.
Teammate Tim English is next best with a tackle efficiency of 75.9 per cent, which is well up from 64.9 per cent last season. Like his skipper, English is enjoying a career-best season – averaging 20 disposals, nine contested possessions, five intercept possessions and five tackles. Interestingly, his ruck numbers are almost identical to last season, but it’s the other areas of his game that have progressed which has seen his scores boom.
Below is the top 10 for highest tackle efficiency of the top 50 for attempts:
At the other end of that spectrum, we have those who haven’t been as effective – led by Tom Sparrow, who has a tackle efficiency of 56.8 per cent, the lowest percentage of that group. Seb Ross is next lowest with 57.5 per cent, while the third-lowest is something of a surprise – Hugh Greenwood at 56.7 per cent. In his last season at Gold Coast in 2021, he had the highest tackle efficiency (73 per cent) of the top 50.
In terms of SuperCoach relevant players, Connor Rozee (59.1 per cent) and Lachie Neale (60.7 per cent) both rank in the bottom 10.
Below is the top 10 for the lowest tackle efficiency of the top 50 for attempts:
ROOKIE WATCH
This week is all about offloading rookies on the bye, with the likes of Alex Cincotta, Eddie Ford and George Wardlaw on the trade table, even though the trio have reachable Break Evens in their next match in round 16.
One player that was earmarked to go in his bye was Harry Sheezel, but after returning to defence in round 14 and tallying 32 disposals, is he worth trading? For what it’s worth, I’ll be holding Sheezel for the short term – but If you are flush with trades then the aggressive move would be to move him out for a premium.
In terms of targets, Ryan Maric is the most obvious choice at the basement low rookie price. On his AFL debut in round 13, he was targeted inside 50 on seven occasions and had three shots at goal, scoring 2.1. He had eight disposals, five contested possessions and two tackles. He should continue to play given the Eagles’ injury crisis.
Collingwood’s Harvey Harrison is on the bubble after scoring 50 and 59 in that order prior to the bye and he, too, is a worthwhile pick.
But it’s Sydney’s Angus Sheldrick that has been snapped up by SuperCoaches across the board after scoring a season-high 91 against the Lions from just 55 per cent game time. He ranked No.1 on the ground for disposals per minute and booted two goals. A valuable DPP, he is a solid pick, and he comes up against West Coast this round.
Another DPP Marcus Windhager should also be in the equation at a slightly more expensive price. He attended a game-high 22 centre bounces in St Kilda’s loss to Richmond and had 20 disposals, nine contested possessions and seven tackles on his way to 85 points. He spent time on Tim Taranto last round, and is likely to be sent to Lachie Neale on Friday night.
If I was picking between the two I would slightly lean towards Windhager.
Happy trading and best of luck for the final bye round of the season!
Trades to navigate toughest bye round
– Tim Michell and Al Paton
Let’s start with the good news – Clayton Oliver is back.
We think.
The Demons and KFC SuperCoach star completed a running session on King’s Birthday and although Simon Goodwin didn’t want to be definitive, Oliver is expected to feature in round 15 against Geelong.
That will come as welcome news for the coaches who held onto Oliver during a hamstring injury, only for his planned round 13 return to be delayed by an infected blister which resulted in a stint in hospital.
OK, now to the bad news. Round 15 is here.
The round most KFC SuperCoaches have been trying to pretend doesn’t exist has finally arrived and some of the best scorers of the year will have their bye.
We’re talking Tim Taranto, Zak Butters, Tom Green, Connor Rozee, Marcus Bontempelli, Tim English and Jack Macrae, just for starters.
Then there’s all the North Melbourne players we’ve loaded our sides with like Jack Ziebell, Harry Sheezel and Eddie Ford.
Throw in money machine Kieren Briggs and the carnage that round 15 promised is well and truly about to hit.
But if you have prepared well – or even if you haven’t – you can still salvage this week and come out of the byes in a position to attack the run home.
It might mean trading Ziebell, Briggs, Sheezel or Ford, but more on that later.
For now, let’s go back to the positives and talk about all the stars coming off the round 14 bye – the perfect additions to our teams to beat the round 15 blues.
TOP TARGETS
Jordan Dawson $573,600 DEF/MID
The Adelaide captain’s scoring has dipped in the past five rounds after a phenomenal start to his first campaign as skipper. Dawson was averaging 124.5 after the first eight rounds but was the 11th-ranked defender in the five rounds from 9-13. That shouldn’t deter you from jumping on if you’ve missed out so far. Dawson is almost $100k cheaper than his peak price and good KFC SuperCoaches know the importance of buying a player at his lowest point, not his peak. If James Sicily isn’t playing in round 15, a sideways swap to Dawson or Tom Stewart will be popular for those needing defenders.
Rory Laird $625,400 MID
Remember when it seemed like Laird might be available for $550k? Scores of 100, 102 and 98 between rounds 7-9 caused the prolific Crow’s price to drop below $600k. But the next week he went 145, killing off any hopes of a massive price drop after the bye. Laird’s last four scores have been 145, 115, 112 and 156 as he feasted on the Eagles in round 13. Adelaide’s next opponent is Collingwood, who Laird posted 100 against earlier this season. But in his previous two games against the Magpies, he scored 154 and 144. Non-owners, beware.
Clayton Oliver $658,700 MID
The No.1 midfielder in KFC SuperCoach, Oliver is due to return to Melbourne’s side this round after four weeks out (including the Demons’ round 14 bye). If Sicily’s suspension is upheld, it will only cost you about $9k to trade him straight to Oliver. Although losing two trades hurts, those who traded Oliver four weeks ago and can move Sicily to him will have come out well in front for points. Oliver hasn’t scored less than 119 in his last four games, so don’t worry about waiting a week for his price to drop due to a 143 Break Even. It’s unlikely Oliver will be much cheaper in round 16 anyway, and you want the extra premium now for the last bye.
Clayton Oliver still running laps around an empty MCG after missing today’s game.
— Ben Waterworth (@bjwaterworth) June 12, 2023
Simon Goodwin (with tongue firmly in cheek) said he was “pretty certain†Oliver would face Geelong after the bye. @FOXFOOTYpic.twitter.com/HgaCwmGZV7
Zach Merrett $619,700 MID
One of the form midfielders in the past month in KFC SuperCoach, scoring 162, 110, 137 and 105 in successive weeks and rewarding coaches who jumped on ahead of a friendly fixture before Essendon’s bye. It will be interesting to see what impact the impending return of Darcy Parish has on Merrett’s midfield time. Ben Hobbs, Jye Caldwell and other options have stood up with Parish out of the team, so Brad Scott has a big decision to make about his midfield set-up. While Merrett is one of the Bombers’ most versatile onballers, his form in the middle surely demands Scott leaves him there.
Ryan Maric $102,400 FWD
Don’t expect big scores playing in the Eagles’ forward line, but Maric showed on debut he can have an impact from only a few disposals. You don’t want to have to play him on field at any point after this round, but he might provide a 50 late in the season if you’ve run out of trades and lose a forward. It’s always risky bringing in a player after just one game but if selected this week, Maric’s job security should be strong in a side crippled by injury and battling at the bottom of the ladder. The other rookies to consider this week are Deven Robertson, Angus Sheldrick and Marcus Windhager after strong showings in round 14, but they’ll cost you a lot more than Maric will.
Christian Petracca $654,400 MID
Cashed up and looking for a POD? Petracca was the only player ranked in the top-eight overall scorers who featured in less than 30 per cent of teams last week. Premium points-of-difference are hard to come by in the era of 36 KFC SuperCoach trades but Petracca has remained a largely unique option (at least compared to scorers of the same ilk). He hasn’t scored less than 95 this year and was on a run of 10 consecutive tons before last round. If you want a player with a huge ceiling who could be a unique in a league final, Petracca stands out.
Darcy Cameron $464,200 RUC/FWD
Need a RUC-FWD to cover your two first-choice rucks for the remainder of the year? Cameron is your man. In the past three matches he has stamped himself as Craig McRae’s preferred ruckman, attending 205 ruck contests to Mason Cox’s 64. Scores of 81, 105 and 92 in the past three games aren’t quite at premium level, but he’s the best RUC-FWD available unless you want to pay about $60k more for Luke Jackson just before Sean Darcy returns from injury.
Jordan Ridley $504,700 DEF
The Essendon interceptor is the pick of the value options in defence, unless you are willing to take the punt on Elliot Yeo for $105k cheaper (more on him below). Since returning from the concussion he suffered against Port Adelaide, Ridley has peeled off scores of 122, 130, 102 and 108. In the past three weeks, he has displayed the quality by foot which had many convinced he was a premium defender in the making after a breakout 2020 season. Ridley has found a target with 48 of his 50 kicks in Essendon’s last three matches. Despite his hot run, he will set you back only $400 more than his starting price.
Elliot Yeo $399,500 DEF
Low on cash and looking for a way to finish your team? This might be it. Yeo has scored 73, 125 and 113 in his past three games and moved as well as he has for several seasons. He has tallied a combined 56 disposals and 28 contested possessions in his past two games, which is made more remarkable by the fact he started at full-back in round 13 playing on Taylor Walker. He’s only played 32 games since the start of 2020 and five this year, so the injury risk is high. But at his best Yeo has averaged 107 in a season twice. Although the sample size is small, he’s been close to his best in his last two matches. It’s not like many teammates are taking points off him, either. If you bring him in, it could be worth holding a trade up your sleeve in case his injury curse returns.
Ben Keays $418,200 MID/FWD
Not as cheap as he was in round 13, but at least Keays has had his bye now and his midfield return has been confirmed. There were question marks on whether he would stay in the middle after playing defensive roles against Brisbane and Gold Coast. But against West Coast only Rory Laird and Jordan Dawson attended more centre bounces than Keays’ 55 per cent. His kicking efficiency will likely continue to hinder his KFC SuperCoach ceiling, but Keays’ contested possession rate helps his scoring. If you can’t afford one of the top forwards, he’s a cut-price alternative who has averaged 100 before.
Marcus Windhager $202,800 MID/FWD
Coaches who need to make more than one downgrade this week could face a dilemma – there is only one Ryan Maric. Magpie Harvey Harrison will be on the bubble if he’s named for his third game (with a Break Even of -38) but he’s a FWD only and most coaches would rather take the extra $21k by selecting Maric and ideally keeping a DPP player at F8. So a cheapie you can pick in the midfield could be an ideal option this week, especially if he has had his bye, is in his second year in the system and built like a tank. The downside to Windhager is his elevated price after eight games this season, most of them as the sub. But he has played full matches the past two weeks and against the Tigers he showed his scoring potential with 20 disposals, seven tackles and 85 points. And, we’ve seen how successful picking players in this price range can be this year. The difference here is you probably won’t cash Windhager in (even if his BE is -11), but he could provide excellent cover across two lines for the remaining 10 rounds – plus an on-field score this week.
TRADE OUT?
Many KFC SuperCoach plans to get 18 scorers on field this week – or somewhere close to it – involve trading out players with the bye in round 15. That got a lot trickier after some big performances this weekend. So, who can be moved on?
Harry Sheezel $460,400 FWD/DEF
Not this guy. At least, not unless you’re extremely confident the player you’re trading in will outscore him by enough in the final nine rounds to make it worthwhile. After a lean patch that convinced many coaches that both he and Jack Ziebell had to go, Sheezel has turned his form around with back-to-back premium-level scores. Aaron Hall’s axing from the team only makes his role more lucrative, with Sheezel saying after the game against the Dogs he expects to spend most of his time in defence with occasional stints up the ground. And after dropping slightly in value he’s about to start making more cash.
Jack Ziebell $467,800 FWD/DEF
The Ziegull role that looked so promising in round 13 went to pieces after halftime in round 14. Tarryn Thomas moved back and was taking kickouts, Harry Sheezel was everywhere and after being 55 at halftime Ziebell finished with less than 70 points. Aaron Hall also had 37 disposals and kicked a goal in the VFL and we know Ziebell – and Sheezel – don’t score as well when Hall is in the team. If you can’t see where this is going, the signs are there now that Ziebell is the Roo to trade and Sheezel can be held. There’s going to be matches he goes large playing behind the ball, but if Brett Ratten wants to use Thomas floating through the backline there will be games where Ziebell scores below premium numbers as well.
Harry Shegull and Jack Ziegull are back! #SuperCoach
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) June 18, 2023
Tough call what to do in round 15 now.
Will you trade or hold?
Eddie Ford $252,400 FWD
Ford’s cash generation has hit a wall and after doing a solid job as a best 18 option in every bye bar round 14, you can definitely move him on this week. He’s essentially doubled in price, which is a great result, and you can make about $145k by trading him to Ryan Maric this week. That might help you facilitate trading George Wardlaw to Darcy Cameron so you’ve got ruck cover for the rest of the year. Thanks Eddie, but we’re sending the Ford to the wrecker’s yard.
George Wardlaw $285,900 MID
If trading Wardlaw over Ford gets you a better premium upgrade, then go for it. He’s not going to be an on-field option for the rest of the year but will provide great cover at M9 or M10. His job security looks the strongest of the rookies with the round 15 bye (unless you count Briggs as a rookie). Wardlaw has also scored 65, 85 and 94 in three of his five games. But ultimately if the extra money from trading Wardlaw helps you get Oliver, Laird, Dawson or any of the other elite premiums coming off the bye, don’t hesitate.
Kieren Briggs $468,800 RUC/FWD
Probably the toughest question that will confront coaches who traded in Briggs purely for bye cover and cash generation will be whether to cash in this week. It’s a huge conundrum if you’ve got Briggs, Tim English and Rowan Marshall, as many coaches do. Briggs has gone 128, 114 and 129 in his last three compared to Marshall’s 98, 119 and 90 – and jumped a staggering $214,400 in the process. Briggs’ 371 points in the past three rounds is also only 17 less than English (this year’s clear No.1 ruck) during the same period. But, of course, Marshall plays this week and Briggs doesn’t. If you truly want to make the most money off Briggs, try to wait another week at least. That might not be an option for coaches struggling to get to 18 in round 15, though. Don’t cop a doughnut this week just to hold Briggs – ultimately the extra $50k-$75k won’t be worth the points you miss out on. That calculation might be different if you have Briggs at R2, although you can trade him to Darcy Cameron now for an extra body this week and a $4k profit, which is pretty remarkable. If you can somehow hold Briggs until round 18 before cashing in, he’s projected to be $560k then.
Briggs is that guy. #R1#SuperCoachpic.twitter.com/nUJqJzUCQX
— eno (@enoFTTV) June 17, 2023
Stephen Coniglio $498,900 MID/FWD
Coniglio’s 112 against Fremantle was his best score since round 6 and only his third above 110 for the season. It probably came at the worst possible time for coaches who thought Coniglio would be expendable at the round 15 bye. There’s no doubt he hasn’t hit the same heights as he did last year, but Coniglio is still the eighth-ranked forward for total points (remembering he is yet to have the bye). If you plan on cutting ties this week, make sure it’s for a top premium you’ve missed such as Laird, Oliver or Merrett. Trading Coniglio mid-season last year was a disaster for some coaches and you want to be guaranteed a strong return every week if you are.
Tom Green $525,100 MID
Anyone who was considering sideways trading Green at round 15 were given a timely reminder of his quality when he scored 127 against Fremantle. Green can be frustrating and burn the footy, but how many players are capable of games with 19 contested possessions? Don’t worry about trading Green, deal with other issues this week.
Jason Horne-Francis $419,000 MID/FWD
It’s been a wild ride for coaches who bought a ticket to the Horne-Francis rollercoaster but now is the time to get off. He hadn’t scored less than 72 since round 6 but had a nightmare against the Cats, going at 54 per cent from 13 disposals with seven clangers and four frees against. Either turn him into a premium coming off the round 14 bye such as Darcy Cameron or go all the way down to Ryan Maric and use the profit to bolster your team in 1-2 other positions.
Alex Cincotta $256,100 DEF/MID
After matching his projected score and making another $15k, this is the week to move Cincotta on. He’s made more than $100k and, more importantly, got his spot back in the Carlton side when he was needed most, scoring 61 in both rounds 12 and 14. A trade to Ryan Maric will net about $150k – or a bottom-priced defender or midfielder if one emerges from the clouds this week – and help you land another premium. He looks settled in Carlton’s back six if you want to hold for DEF-MID cover, but the smart play is to cash in now.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach round 15 trade guide: Who to buy, sell in toughest bye week
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