SuperCoach AFL 2025: Top trade targets for round 21
SuperCoach league finals are here and with four rounds remaining, the fixture is everything. Here are the players to target — and to be terrified of.
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The smell of cut grass is in the air which can mean only one thing, it’s finals time in SuperCoach.
Most head-to-head leagues have a four-week finals series that kicks off this weekend. And that means some teams are playing for their season, while others are aiming for a week off after earning the double chance.
Study your match-ups and decide if this is the time to deploy a precious trade, keeping in mind there may be no tomorrow (at least in leagues, the $50k is still up for grabs!).
How confident you feel about your finals prospects will dictate if you trade in a player your opponent doesn’t have to gain an edge, or someone they own to cancel out a potential advantage the other way. The rolling lockout means you can even hold fire, track how scores are progressing and make the call midway through the round.
Either way, the players to target are the select group with a dream run over the final four rounds – which includes some of the biggest scorers in SuperCoach.
Champion Data has come to the rescue with exclusive opposition analysis that reveals the easiest and hardest match-ups in each position based on how many points teams are conceding in each position over the past six rounds.
These are the names that could decide finals, premierships, and bragging rights for the next six months and beyond.
It’s Grawndy time, with the old firm of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy both in line for some monster totals over the next four rounds. Gawn kicks off the finals against West Coast, which has conceded more points to opposition rucks than any other team this year – including 198 to Gawn in round 8. His next two opponents are both in the bottom five for points conceded – his most recent scores against the Bulldogs and Hawthorn are 130 and 142 – before finishing with a slightly tougher match against Darcy Cameron.
Grundy could go even bigger, with a five-round average of 150 and a dream run against Essendon, Brisbane and the two best ruck match-ups in the game, Geelong and West Coast.
Rowan Marshall owners will be hoping he can match the big two, and he could go close, especially if he can take advantage of a North Melbourne side still missing Tristan Xerri this weekend. After that he has Richmond, Essendon and GWS.
After he returns, Tristan Xerri should finish strong against GWS, Richmond and Adelaide.
The Swans mids have the best run home of any side, playing Essendon and West Coast – plus the Lions, who have surprisingly leaked the second-most points to mids over the past six rounds, including 143 to Matt Rowell, 136 to Alex Davies, 128 to Noah Anderson and 126 to Brayden Fiorini last week. Sydney also has the bonus of not having to play against tagger James Jordon. So Isaac Heeney should bank a lot more points and there is fertile ground for Errol Gulden and Chad Warner.
Load up on Bailey Smith and Max Holmes, too. Geelong faces three leaky teams – Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond – plus a tough match-up against the Swans.
Rowell and Anderson should continue their hot form, starting with a clash against a Richmond midfield that just let Nick Daicos score 177 points. They also face Port Adelaide and Carlton in the run home and could have added another easy match-up, but unfortunately the post-round 24 game against Essendon won’t be part of the SuperCoach competition.
Fremantle is another team to target. Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong get an easy match-up against the Lions – trust the numbers! – plus the Power and Carlton, with a grand final week date with the Bulldogs their biggest challenge.
It’s a mixed bag for the Dogs — who get two easy match-ups against Melbourne and West Coast, and two hard games against GWS and Fremantle – and Adelaide, which also has a two easy (Eagles, Roos) and two hard (Hawks, Pies) equation.
But Brisbane has copped an absolutely brutal run. The Lions’ last four games are against the four most restrictive midfields in the comp: Collingwood (ranked fourth for points conceded), Sydney (second), Fremantle (third) and Hawthorn (first).
The Cats will appear in multiple categories here, and it’s no shock their remaining opponents also give up bulk points to defenders. Unfortunately, that doesn’t help a lot of SuperCoach teams, unless you somehow still have Tom Stewart. It’s a similar story at Gold Coast, which also has an outstanding fixture for defenders – get on John Noble in SuperCoach Draft.
When it comes to popular SuperCoach Classic picks, it’s good news for Tom McCarthy, Dayne Zorko – Collingwood is a mid-table match-up while Fremantle and Sydney are both in the bottom six for giving up points to backs – and Saints pair Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Jack Sinclair. North Melbourne, who they face this week, has been surprisingly restrictive for defenders lately, but Jack and Nas should have a field day against Richmond (round 22) and Essendon (round 23), the two leakiest teams in the comp in that part of the ground.
It’s a different story for GWS pair Lachie Whitfield and Lachie Ash, who don’t have any easy opponents in the final four rounds. A round 24 clash against St Kilda, traditionally a very easy match-up for defenders, looked great on paper. But Ross Lyon has tightened the screws and the Saints are giving up an average of just 63.9 points to defenders over the past six weeks, ranked No. 1 and almost 30 points less than 18th-ranked Essendon.
Kangaroos Caleb Daniel and Colby McKercher also have a tough run, facing the Saints and third-ranked Giants over the next two weeks before a reprieve against Richmond in round 23.
It’s all about one man in the forward line in the race to September, and that’s Jeremy Cameron on his quest to become the first man to hit the ton since Lance Franklin in 2008.
The Cats only have the fourth best run for key forwards on the run home, but you can be sure they’ll be funnelling every forward 50 entry his way – just like they did on the weekend for his 11 goals against the hapless Roos.
And with four of the six clubs which concede the most points to key forwards to come, he could well go completely, utterly ham. Essendon in particular, down at the Cattery, could be exceedingly ugly when you consider Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy just kicked seven and six goals on them respectively.
If you’ve already got Jezza, or you’re worried about him being rested if the 100 gets out of sight, there are plenty of other options up forward – just make sure they play North Melbourne.
The Roos are giving up 91 points a game to key forwards over the last six weeks – the worst in the AFL by a whopping 20 points.
Carlton are 17th, with 71 points, and the Bombers not far behind on 69 points, with the Giants handing the big boppers up forward an average of just 44 points.
Riley Thilthorpe and the Crows have the fifth-best run in the final month, with particularly tasty games against West Coast and North Melbourne as the Crows push for a home final. Thilthorpe has three scores of 129+ in his last three … but has a 46 in there against the Dees as well.
The club with the best run home – statistically – for key forwards is the Giants, who should have their key forwards on average score about 10 points more than average. They play the Bulldogs, who are ranked 12th on giving up points to key forwards, then North (18th), the Suns (11th) and then St Kilda (7th)
Jesse Hogan is just $374,100 and has missed a few games with niggles, but could be a game changer in your SuperCoach finals. Richmond and St Kilda have the second and third-best runs home for key forwards – Mason Wood time? (No, absolutely not. Don’t even think about it).
In reality, North Melbourne’s skewing of the data (the Roos play the Tigers and Saints on the run home) means not too many are jumping out until you get to the Cats and Crows, while Carlton (sixth-best run home) might provide brave punters with some reward in SuperCoach grand final week against Essendon.
Sam Darcy and the Bulldogs actually have the second-hardest run home for key forwards behind North Melbourne, with the extremely restrictive Giants and Dockers to come, the hardest and fourth-hardest teams to score against.
There’s far less variance in the run home for general forwards, with the data projecting an average of between 62.1 an 63.7 for the seven best clubs, which are Essendon, Richmond, Gold Coast, the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, GWS and the Crows.
Collingwood, West Coast, Hawthorn and Brisbane have the toughest run, interestingly followed by the Cats – when you might have thought someone like Gryan Miers could have cleaned up against Essendon and Richmond, the Bombers are the fourth-best side at restricting general forwards.
Dylan Moore and Jamie Elliott are also likewise are less exciting options despite good form this season.
At the more favourable end of the data, players like Alex Neal-Bullen, Ben Keays and Izak Rankine could be in for better months,
Seth Campbell has a three-round average of 82 despite missing on the weekend and could provide a mammoth POD in your league finals, while Joe Richards scored 142 against the Eagles three weeks ago – could he repeat it against Carlton?
Bailey Humphrey and Ben Ainsworth present interesting options on the run home as well, but no promises of good scores.
Originally published as SuperCoach AFL 2025: Top trade targets for round 21
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