KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: 11 things you need to know for Round 9

The Tex Train is off the rails, Patrick Cripps is in uncharted waters and we shouldn’t trade a Hawks cheapie this week. The SuperCoach Plus stats you need to know.

Taylor Walker's price is heading down fast in KFC SuperCoach.

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From eye-popping price projections for Taylor Walker and Patrick Cripps to the best points-per-minute players and a very good reason to reverse Jacob Koschitzke trades, here are the 11 key stats you need to know ahead of Round 9:

TRADE GUIDE: THIS WEEK’S BEST VALUE SUPERCOACH STARS

1. The Tex train has officially come to a grinding halt. One of the best buys of the early rounds after making a flying start to the season, Taylor Walker has scored 42 and 29 in the past two rounds and dropped by more than $70,000 from his peak price of $491,900. Thousands of his owners have seen enough, with Walker the most traded player ahead of Round 9. As of Tuesday morning, he had already been punted by 4.7 per cent of coaches. Errol Gulden (4.4 per cent) was the only other player above 4 per cent.

Patrick Cripps is heading into uncharted KFC SuperCoach waters.

2. Patrick Cripps is projected to be available for his cheapest price in more than six years come Round 11. The Carlton co-captain started the season with a KFC SuperCoach price of $523,700 and his value has already dropped by more than $100,000 after averaging 82.8 points in the first eight rounds. Cripps is projected to score 82, 81 and 65 in his next three matches, which would result in his price plummeting to $398,500. The last time he was that cheap in KFC SuperCoach was Round 6, 2015.

3. Speaking of getting cheap, Dustin Martin could also be available for under $400,000 in a couple of weeks unless he can produce a monster Dusty game. The Tigers champ has already dropped almost $100,000 from his starting price and is projected to lose another $50k over the next two rounds when the undermanned Tigers face GWS and Brisbane — SuperCoach Plus is projecting scores of 67 and 81 in those games. Round 11, when he is projected to be worth $385,900, could be the time to jump on if you don’t have him — his following two games are against Adelaide (av 128 in his past three against the Crows) and Essendon (av 117 in his past five).

4. There is a new player on top of the KFC SuperCoach rich list. Collingwood superstar Brodie Grundy went past ruck rival Max Gawn on Sunday night and is now the most expensive player in the game with a price tag of $681,300 — $3200 ahead of Gawn. Grundy added $12,100 to his price tag after scoring 128 against North Melbourne, his lowest score for the past four weeks. Gawn, meanwhile, dropped $48,200 after a 112 against the Swans, with most of that coming from his 63 the week before. KFC SuperCoach prices are calculated on a three-game rolling average, which means Gawn still has a huge break even of 228 this week (compared to Grundy’s 133) and he could drop even further in the millionaire’s club. Three Bulldogs — Jack Macrae ($647k), Josh Dunkley ($634k) and Marcus Bontempelli ($618k) are breathing down his neck.

Brodie Grundy is having another outstanding season.

5. Hawk Jacob Koschitzke is the fifth-most traded out player this week, but that could be a bad move if you believe in players favouring certain venues. Kozi faces North Melbourne this week at the University of Tasmania Stadium — the same venue he scored 104 points against Adelaide in Round 6. And the pre-season seems a long time ago now, but don’t forget it was a six-goal game against the Kangaroos that catapulted the tall forward onto the KFC SuperCoach radar. SuperCoach Plus says he has a 48 per cent chance of reaching his break even of 60 and given his season average is 54.7, you’re not likely to lose much cash this week — and you could make a small windfall.

6. If yo-young KFC SuperCoach scores are giving you heart palpitations, SuperCoach Plus has the answer. Click on “consistency” in the drop-down menu on the player tab to find the players who just give you the same scores every single week. Tiger Rhyan Mansell hasn’t set the SuperCoach world alight in his five games, but at least you know what you’re going to get — he has scored between 39-50 in every match, giving him an elite consistency rating of 3.7. At the top end of the scoring tree, premium defender Jake Lloyd has a rating of 5.9 with five of his eight scores between 98-111 (the outliers are a low score of 95 and a high of 124).

Dependable Richmond defender Rhyan Mansell.

7. At the other end of the scale Steven May has one of the worst consistency ratings in the competition (44.2) with his rollercoaster season including scores of 7, 94, 145 and 77 in the past month alone. Teammate Max Gawn has a surprisingly bad rating (36.9) thanks to the 109-point difference between his best (172) and worst (63) scores and Darcy Moore has Nathan Buckley to thank for his 34.4 rating after his weekly score jumped by 106 points (24 to 130) after returning to a more familiar role as an intercepting defender last weekend.

8. Max Gawn’s price is falling — and fast. Gawn has the highest break even in KFC SuperCoach this round (228) and is projected to lose almost $46k this week. Gawn peaked at $756,800 and seemed headed for $800,000 after scoring 147 against Richmond but has posted 63 and 112 in the past two rounds. Gawn’s price has dropped to $678,100 and he’s projected to be available for less than $610,000 after the Demons’ Round 14 bye. Gawn is still the top-ranked player for total points with 1022, but Brodie Grundy (1018) is closing fast.

Father-son Bulldog Rhylee West. Picture: Michael Klein

9. Based on SuperCoach Plus projections, Magpie Caleb Poulter is the No.1 rookie choice this week with a projected price rise of $57,400 after his next game — and $130k over the next three rounds. Tiger Riley Collier-Dawkins is projected to increase in value by $46,500 this week and just over $100k by Round 11, assuming he scores 60 points a game until then. One cash cow that may have escaped the attention of many is back-up Kangaroos ruckman Tom Campbell. After scoring 101 against Collingwood Campbell has a break even of -31 and if he scores 54 as projected against the Hawks he’ll add almost $40k to his price tag, and another $20k the next week. If you’re keen to can make a $30k profit by trading Matthew Flynn to the ruck/forward.

10. Essendon’s super sub Matt Guelfi had the best points per minute ratio of any player in KFC SuperCoach last round. Guelfi featured for 34 minutes of Essendon’s tense loss to GWS Giants after being subbed in, scoring 60 points after laying six tackles, having eight disposals and kicking a goal. The next best were Dan Houston and Tom Mitchell (1.5 PPM), followed by a host of players who recorded 1.4 PPM including Jeremy Cameron, Marcus Bontempelli and Jarryd Lyons. At the opposite end of the scale, Adam Saad went at just 0.2 points per minute, scoring 21, while Jake Lever was well held by Will Hayward and only recorded 0.3 points per minute.

11. Different year, same result. It feels like every season since he joined Brisbane Lions, we talk about Jarryd Lyons being the best POD (point of difference) selection in KFC SuperCoach. This year is no different. Lyons is averaging 119.8 yet is still only in 2.2 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams. The only players worth $550,000 or more in fewer teams than Lyons are injured duo James Sicily and Matt Crouch, Jed Anderson (one game), Tom Rockliff (two games), Lachie Whitfield and Touk Miller. Whitfield has played the past two matches but missed the first six, while Miller has flown under the radar as a premium scorer.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: 11 things you need to know for Round 9