AFL finals 2018: Champion Data ranks each finalists’ bottom six

RICHMOND’S depth — more specific its bottom six players — was one of the keys to the Tigers’ premiership last year. Are they the benchmark team again? Champion Data ranks every finalist.

Which club has the best bottom six.

RICHMOND’S depth was one of the keys to the Tigers’ incredible run to the 2017 premiership.

In footy speak, that is often measured by the strength of a team’s “bottom six” players.

Is the Tigers’ bottom six still the AFL benchmark? To answer that question, you need to know who those six players are — and that isn’t as simple as it looks.

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Champion Data has put each finalist’s Round 23 line-up under the microscope and highlighted the six players with the lowest season average based on its official AFL player ratings.

And it produced some surprising results.

For a start, the Tigers’ bottom six includes Bachar Houli and Brandon Ellis, who both rank below Reece Conca and Jack Higgins, both seen as probable omissions when premiership stars Kane Lambert and Dan Butler return from injury.

A ladder of each team’s bottom six rankings also reveals Geelong’s depth is a lot better than the Cats are being credit for, and Sydney has a major problem.

How strong is every finalist’s bottom six? Scroll down for a breakdown of every team.

STRENGTH OF BOTTOM SIX IN ROUND 23

1. Melbourne 47.7

2. Richmond 42.9

3. Geelong 41.3

4. West Coast 40.7

5. Collingwood 39.4

6. Greater Western Sydney 39.2

7. Hawthorn 39.1

8. Sydney 35.2

Brandon Ellis.

RICHMOND

Kamdyn McIntosh 7.4 (19 games)

Bachar Houli 7.4 (13)

David Astbury 7.2 (20)

Brandon Ellis 7.1 (18)

Nathan Broad 7.0 (16)

Jason Castagna 6.8 (20)

Also in the mix: Sam Lloyd, Liam Baker, Ryan Garthwaite, Connor Menadue, Corey Ellis

Richmond’s bottom six ranks second, more than five rankings points on average behind the Demons. Last year, every Tiger made a contribution in September and, amazingly, there was not a single change to the team for its three finals. This year, things are a little different, with at least one change this week to accommodate the returning Kane Lambert. Conca and Higgins might survive based on these rankings, with Ellis and Broad ranking lower. David Astbury gets a pass as a pure full-back.

Dom Sheed.

WEST COAST

Dom Sheed 7.7 (15 games)

Will Schofield 7.2 (10)

Brad Sheppard 7.0 (22)

Oscar Allen 6.7 (2)

Mark Hutchings 6.1 (17)

Daniel Venables 6.0 (12)

Also in the mix: Brendon Ah Chee, Jake Waterman, Brayden Ainsworth, Jack Petrucelle, Jackson Nelson

The Eagles rank a very credible fourth in the bottom six rankings given injuries to top-line players, but they wouldn’t want any more forced outs with a drop-off to the players next in line. Josh Kennedy’s return for the qualifying final will probably cost Allen his spot in the team and push a player like Nathan Vardy into the bottom six.

Chris Mayne.

COLLINGWOOD

Brayden Maynard 8.4 (18 games)

Chris Mayne 7.8 (17)

Jack Madgen 7.4 (4)

Adam Oxley 5.5 (3)

Levi Greenwood 5.2 (12)

Nathan Murphy 5.1 (2)

Also in the mix: Callum Brown, Josh Daicos, Flynn Appleby, Alex Fasolo

Rank fifth for bottom six strength, but that’s no shame given the list includes Madgen and Murphy, who made their debuts in Round 20 and Round 22 respectively. Can the raw defence hold up in September? The Magpies’ reserves are thin, but the return of Jeremy Howe, and possibly Adam Treloar and Darcy Moore, will be a big help.

Ryan Burton.

HAWTHORN

Connor Nash 6.9 (3 games)

Harry Morrison 6.9 (19)

David Mirra 6.7 (6)

Ryan Burton 6.5 (21)

Kaiden Brand 6.1 (10)

Ryan Schoenmakers 6.0 (8)

Also in the mix: Daniel Howe, Conor Glass, Jon Ceglar, James Cousins, Taylor Duryea, Brendan Whitecross

The second-weakest bottom six according to the official AFL ratings, but two will make way for James Sicily and James Frawley against the Tigers. It illustrates the Hawks’ unusually lopsided list that includes a host of triple-premiership legends and a bunch of kids untried in the September heat.

Dom Tyson.

MELBOURNE

Dom Tyson 9.5 (14 games)

Jay Kennedy-Harris 8.5 (6)

Dean Kent 8.5 (5)

Oscar McDonald 7.4 (22)

Charlie Spargo 7.0 (15)

Sam Weideman 6.8 (7)

Also in the mix: Mitch Hannan, Jayden Hunt, Jeff Garlett, Cam Pedersen, Joel Smith, Tom Bugg

Clearly the strongest bottom six of the eight finalists and with some seriously good players in the wings if needed. Weideman has kicked just one goal in each of his two games since replacing the injured Jesse Hogan but it hasn’t hurt the Demons, who kicked 16 and 15 goals in those matches. Oscar McDonald will be relied on to take one of the opposition’s best forwards while Spargo and Kennedy-Harris play in probably the hardest position to shine in finals.

Kieren Jack.

SYDNEY

Kieren Jack 6.5 (18 games)

Jordan Dawson 6.5 (4)

Daniel Robinson 5.9 (8)

Tom McCartin 5.8 (14)

Robbie Fox 5.3 (10)

Dan Hannebery 5.2 (14)

Also in the mix: Gary Rohan, Colin O’Riordan, Harry Marsh, Darcy Cameron

A clear last for bottom six strength, which has become a major issue for the Swans this year. The good news is two of those players will be demoted as Lance Franklin and Luke Parker return, improving the team at the top and bottom end of the rankings — they are Sydney’s top two rated players. Hannebery is No. 10 on that list, which also takes in performances over recent seasons. On this year’s stats alone, he’s dead last of the players who appeared in Round 23.

Sam Reid.

GWS GIANTS

Zac Langdon 8.0 (19 games)

Daniel Lloyd 8.0 (14)

Harry Perryman 6.5 (8)

Sam Reid 6.3 (19)

Matt Buntine 5.8 (7)

Lachlan Keeffe 4.6 (7)

Also in the mix: Brent Daniels, Dylan Buckley

The Giants haven’t done as well as the Eagles and Magpies in covering for their injured stars, ranking sixth of the eight finalists for bottom-six strength. But that could all go out the window this week with Toby Greene, Zac Williams, Sam Taylor, Brett Deledio, Ryan Griffen and Aidan Corr all possible inclusions. Apart from players returning from injury though, there isn’t much to call on.

Scott Selwood.

GEELONG

Harry Taylor 8.3 (7 games)

Jack Henry 7.9 (21)

Jake Kolodjashnij 7.3 (22)

Scott Selwood 7.1 (12)

Jed Bews 5.4 (20)

Mark O’Connor 5.3 (4)

Also in the mix: Jackson Thurlow, Lachie Fogarty, Quinton Narkle, Sam Simpson, Jordan Cunico, Esava Ratugolea

Myth busted: The Cats’ bottom six is better than you think, ranking third of all finalists based on the Round 23 team. Interestingly, neither regular selection scapegoat Jordan Murdoch or three-gamer Ryan Abbott are on the list. And there is a decent list of players outside the current team who have played good footy this year. Geelong’s biggest issue seems to be deciding on a settled line-up. How much is that worth? Ask Damien Hardwick.

Originally published as AFL finals 2018: Champion Data ranks each finalists’ bottom six