Mick McGuane’s revised top eight for 2025 as contenders and pretenders start to become clear
With six rounds of evidence to go on, Mick McGuane has done an updated top eight. Find out who made the cut — and why. Plus, which team faces an ‘elimination final’ in April?
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It is only round 7, but the AFL ladder is already beginning to take shape and there is enough evidence to start separating the contenders from the pretenders.
We got AFL analyst Mick McGuane to have another crack at predicting his top-eight, based on what he has seen so far and what is still to come.
Here are the teams he thinks will be featuring in September — and why.
Like butter Cal 🫶 pic.twitter.com/IakNVCWfGK
— Brisbane Lions (@brisbanelions) April 13, 2025
1. BRISBANE LIONS
Current Ladder Position: 2nd
They’re not playing their best footy just yet, but the Lions have already banked five wins and there should be more to come.
With games against St Kilda, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Melbourne over the next month, Chris Fagan’s side could easily hold a 9-1 record after 10 rounds.
Brisbane has lacked dominance in games that it has triumphed in during the early part of the season, winning only 12 of 24 quarters.
How the reigning premiers continue to handle the mentality shift of going from the hunter to the hunted will determine how far they go this season, but they boast a playing list which bats deep and there is plenty of potential upside.
An Easter Thursday loss to Collingwood — in which Brisbane was beaten up in contest and clearances — was a reality check, but I don’t expect it to become a trend.
What has been a trend is the side’s inability to score once inside-50.
It ranked fifth for scores per inside-50 last year, but sits 14th in that category this season.
The absence of Kai Lohmann (ankle) over the past three weeks has been understated, given his creative nous inside 50 and ability to play tall.
However, he is set for a likely return this week and classy rebounding defender Keidean Coleman is just a week or two away from making a long-awaited comeback from an ACL injury in a further boost.
Defensively, the Lions need to tighten the screws a little, but I’m confident that they will continue to improve in all facets of their game as the year progresses.
2. COLLINGWOOD
Current Ladder Position: 1st
I had the Magpies finishing eighth in my pre-season predictions.
I wasn’t entirely sure how the ageing list would perform, or how recruits Dan Houston, Tim Membrey and Harry Perryman would fit in.
But this side is sitting in a very strong position, winning its past five matches since a very ordinary opening round performance against Greater Western Sydney.
The wins haven’t come against bottom-four battlers, either.
Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Sydney and Brisbane Lions have been some good early scalps.
The team defence and at-the-ball pressure has been a clear highlight of Collingwood’s game and it has equated to an impressive front-half profile which is both enabling the Magpies to score and is making it hard for opposition teams to score going back the other way.
Collingwood has conceded just 396 points this year, making for its best first six games of a season defensively since 1967.
Captain Darcy Moore is flying and his leadership down back — along with that of Jeremy Howe — has been hugely important.
There have also been big winners through the midfield — headlined by Nick Daicos and veterans Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom — while strong pressure in the forward 50 is contributing to ample intercepts through the midfield which Collingwood is scoring from.
The X-Factor is Jordan De Goey, who isn’t yet at his dynamic best after an interrupted pre-season.
But if he can get a clean run with his body and build fitness, look out.
3. HAWTHORN
Current Ladder Position: 7th
The Hawks’ start to the season has been a little clunky.
They haven’t been firing on all cylinders, but their best is clearly good enough to finish top four.
Skill execution — especially coming out of defence — cost them dearly against Geelong on Easter Monday, but I suspect that could be a circuit-breaker game for them despite the narrow defeat.
The way they played, particularly early as they moved the ball by handball through an organised Cats’ defence, was a huge positive and I also loved how they made the ground big when attacking.
Hawthorn is the third-hardest side to move the ball against from defensive 50 to inside 50, but rank second-last when it comes to putting intercepts on the scoreboard.
That should improve, though, and will be helped by Calsher Dear’s impending return from a back stress fracture.
There has been a lot of focus on Sam Darcy, but I’m also a huge fan of this young key forward.
Will Day’s loss has clearly been felt in recent weeks and Conor Nash’s suspension won’t help the midfield group, but ruckman Lloyd Meek’s tap work and follow-up around stoppages has been a revelation, Jai Newcombe has been terrific and James Worpel was excellent against Geelong and is underrated.
Captain James Sicily has been off — particularly with his kicking — but he will turn his form around like great players do.
Already sitting 4-2, the Hawks face West Coast, Richmond, Melbourne and Gold Coast over the next month.
There’s a prime opportunity there to get on a run and be 8-2 after 10 games.
With plenty to choose from, Darcy Jones claims our GOTW 🪖 pic.twitter.com/jmoh7qe89e
— GWS GIANTS (@GWSGIANTS) April 20, 2025
4. GWS GIANTS
Current Ladder Position: 4th
They have been a little off Broadway to start the year, but the Giants are a genuine top-four team.
Their profile, both in attack and defence, is as strong as any and their stars and lesser-lights alike have been producing the goods.
Defensively, GWS ranks No. 1 for scores against, scores per inside-50 against, points from turnovers against and defending opposition ball movement from defensive 50 to forward 50.
Offensively, the Giants have scored 100-plus points in three of their six games so far and rank fifth for scoring shots per inside-50.
Jesse Hogan has kicked 15 goals from just three matches, while Toby Greene has 14 goals to his name.
Small forward Brent Daniels is the one they are sorely missing, but he is due back from an abdomen injury in the next month in what should prove a big boost.
The imminent return of experienced midfielder Stephen Coniglio (glute) will also help, while there is competition for spots from underneath as the likes of James Leake and Max Gruzewski enjoy some strong VFL form.
One area of the Giants’ profile that they can improve is their transition game from defensive 50 to forward 50.
With halfback weapons like Lachie Ash and Lachie Whitfield in your side, you should rank better than 14th in that area.
The Giants face the Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Geelong and Fremantle over the next month.
Win at least three of those matches and they might move into premiership favouritism.
5. GEELONG
Current Ladder Position: 6th
You have to keep tipping your hat to Geelong.
The Cats are continually evolving and have paved themselves a path to finals in eight of the past nine years.
This year, much of their evolution has come in the midfield.
Tom Atkins has stepped up to cover Patrick Dangerfield, who has moved forward to great effect.
Recruit Bailey Smith has added significant running power alongside Max Holmes, while Jack Bowes has played a role and Jhye Clark has produced some strong VFL games over recent weeks since being dropped.
The combination of Dangerfield (14 goals) and Jeremy Cameron (13 goals) has been potent in attack, while Shannon Neale continues to grow and Shaun Mannagh has been a huge success.
The Cats haven’t lost their efficiency going forward despite the retirement of Tom Hawkins, still ranking No. 1 for scores per inside-50.
Defensively they are also rock-solid and rank No. 2 for scores per inside-50 against.
Jack Henry (hamstring) will return to that backline in coming weeks.
Sam De Koning has been shifted back to defence this year but might still be needed in the ruck at times, while Mark Blicavs continues to provide great flexibility with his ability to feature in all areas of the ground.
A highly adaptable playing squad is one of the key reasons as to why Chris Scott’s team is so hard to coach against.
Scott so often dictates games from the coaches’ box because he has the flexibility to give players different roles during matches based on trends that are developing.
There is more work to do over the next three weeks, with some big games against Carlton, Collingwood and Greater Western Sydney.
However, the Cats are tracking very nicely.
how does Shai Bolton do THAT 🤯#foreverfreo | #AFLDeesFreopic.twitter.com/G5bDGQqPoI
— Fremantle Dockers (@freodockers) April 19, 2025
6. FREMANTLE
Current Ladder Position: 9th
It might be a controversial call, especially coming off a poor loss to Melbourne last weekend.
But I’m keeping the faith in the Dockers.
I went to the MCG last Saturday to see if Fremantle was the real deal and I left disappointed.
However, the problems are fixable.
It was a lacklustre team defensive display last week and their at-the-source pressure was poor, bordering on insipid.
The defensive formation was completely disjointed as players kick-chased rather than conforming to structure.
Coach Justin Longmuir would have left that game a disappointed coach, but I hope he’s been an angry coach at the club this week.
Some of the actions of his players last week were selfish and cannot be tolerated.
The Dockers are a side who generate their offence on the back of a strong defensive game plan and to achieve that you have to be more in-tune with each other than what was put on display against the Demons.
Team defence often starts with defending your front half and while Sam Switkowski is a barometer in that area, the likes of Michael Frederick, Shai Bolton, Murphy Reid and Bailey Banfield need to snap into defensive transition better than they have been doing.
I’m expecting an immediate response across all areas of the ground when Fremantle hosts Adelaide in Perth on Friday night.
The Dockers undoubtedly have the talent to be a top-eight team this year and if they don’t fix some of these issues — and quickly — then Longmuir’s tenure might be over sooner rather than later.
Strong coaches uphold standards they expect and if some players are compromising that they must be dropped.
Respectfully, HE HAS RISEN pic.twitter.com/Fes1CAfiMB
— Western Bulldogs (@westernbulldogs) April 20, 2025
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Current Ladder Position: 8th
Luke Beveridge is coaching as well as he has ever coached.
For a team which has had more than its fair share of injury issues in the early part of the season, it is impressive that the Bulldogs sit inside the top eight.
Marcus Bontempelli — arguably the best player in the competition alongside Nick Daicos — only returned for his first game of the year last weekend.
Defender Liam Jones missed the first two games, while onballer Adam Treloar and important forward Cody Weightman are yet to get on the park.
Now, Beveridge has another injury woe with emerging key forward Sam Darcy set to be sidelined for months.
But we saw the coach reinvigorate Rory Lobb’s career in a new role last year.
Could it be James O’Donnell or Buku Khamis who could step up and help to fill the Darcy void?
Everyone thinks players of Darcy’s caliber are indispensable, but what his injury does do is make the Bulldogs more unpredictable going forward.
No longer can those kicking inside-50 just bomb it to the head of the big man, which changes the way the opposition has to defend you.
Aaron Naughton must step up and become the main man in attack — which he can — with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan being out of the fold.
Beveridge has handled the Ugle-Hagan situation beautifully, separating it and not letting it become a distraction as he focuses on players who are turning up to training and the team he selects.
Tom Liberatore has gone to another level with his leadership, while Ed Richards and Joel Freijah have also been important pieces in an evolving midfield.
The big concern has been leaking scores at times.
The Bulldogs ranked No. 1 for points against last year, but rate 12th this season and sit 16th for scores per inside-50 against, despite defending the opposition’s transition as well as anyone.
We’ll find out plenty in the next five weeks as the Bulldogs face GWS, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Essendon and Geelong.
If they can win at least three of those they’ll be in a good position at the bye — and it might be hard not to re-sign Beveridge in the back half of the year.
8. SYDNEY
Current Ladder Position: 14th
It might sound silly, but I think this weekend’s clash against Gold Coast is almost an elimination final for the Swans.
They are a game outside of the top-eight now and simply can’t afford to drop a third-straight game against a Suns outfit which is back at home after a disappointing loss to Richmond last week.
Two of Sydney’s four losses have come by single-figure margins and they haven’t been far away in any of their outings despite being indifferent in some areas of their game.
So, I think they are close to being complete.
The Swans’ defensive system is holding up and they rank fourth for scores per inside-50 against despite the experiment of playing their best key defender — Tom McCartin — up forward.
Dean Cox’s team also ranks second for defending opposition ball movement from defensive 50 to inside 50, which is another big tick.
What is concerning is their pressure, which ranks 13th.
As former coach Paul Roos pointed out last weekend, having 19 first-half tackles against Port Adelaide was not the Sydney we know.
If I was part of the Swans’ match committee, I’d eradicate the McCartin experiment forward.
But I would throw up an alternative, especially with Logan McDonald (ankle), Joel Amartey (hamstring) and Tom Papley (heel) sidelined.
Why not throw Nick Blakey forward?
Let’s not forget he was drafted in that position and kicked seven goals against GWS in an under-18 match in 2018.
As much as he brings some run and speed in the back half, I don’t think he is putting enough of a premium on defensive actions at times and he has laid just five tackles for the season.
Blakey could even swap with Isaac Heeney to push up into the midfield at times and be another damaging forward-half player.
It’s worth a gamble before the season slips away.
THE ONES WHO MISSED ….
Gold Coast is third on the ladder now, but they haven’t beaten much after an easy draw to start the year.
The loss to Richmond last weekend was another sign that the Suns aren’t there yet and over the next eight weeks they face seven teams who I have playing finals.
Adelaide (fifth) started the year better than I expected, but the Crows still have plenty to prove after a damning loss to Gold Coast and a second-half fade-out against Geelong.
Port Adelaide (10th) has been better the past two weeks and should make it three on the trot against North Melbourne on Saturday.
However, the Power have a tough two months after that and I’m worried their forward line is too reliant on Mitch Georgiades as Jack Lukosius (knee) remains sidelined.
Carlton (13th) is the side who could jump as the Blues’ fixture opens up.
But the fact remains that across their past 15 matches since round 17 last year, Michael Voss’ side has only scored four wins.
Two of those have come against North Melbourne, with the other two being against West Coast.
They’re hardly scalps, so it’s difficult to put any trust in the Blues right now.
Originally published as Mick McGuane’s revised top eight for 2025 as contenders and pretenders start to become clear
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