Heath Shaw delivers his ultimate guide to the 2021 finals series and makes his premiership selection
Finals is all about the big moments. Who will stand up for your club when the pressure is at its hottest? See every team’s finals X-factor.
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Melbourne might have won the battle for top spot but there is another club that is still leading the race for the flag.
That is the message from GWS and Collingwood great Heath Shaw, who has run his eye over all eight finalists.
What does he think of every team? Check our his ultimate guide below.
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1. MELBOURNE
The Dees are the only team in the league to have beaten every other team this year, and they’re arguably the biggest improver this season after missing the eight in 2020.
What I love about them is their spine, which I believe is the best going around.
Jake Lever and Steven May at the back are solid as a rock. Max Gawn has done it for them in the ruck for a long time.
Add in Ben Brown and Tom McDonald, who’s back to his best, and it equals a serious outfit.
You can build your side around that, and Gawn’s combination with Clayton Oliver is the best ruck to mid combination in the league.
Down back, the way they set up behind the ball makes it hard for the opposition to get it out, and that’s where most of their scores have come from.
No pre-finals bye I think helps their momentum and they’re riding high after last weekend’s dramatic win.
X-factor- Christian Petracca has gone to another level this and he’s a standout. He’s had more midfield time.
2. PORT ADELAIDE
The Power finished top two, and they’ve been a top four team for some time, yet there are still many that question their premiership mettle.
It’s been hanging over their heads for a few years, and in a way it’s understandable as they tend to beat up on the bottom eight teams and then struggle against the good sides.
They’ve lost to four of the top five sides this year, so they haven’t found a way yet to topple the cream of the crop.
Although, they took a big step forward in that area with last weekend’s stirring win over the Bulldogs. Can they carry that into September?
We know they’ve been super consistent the past few years and their game style and structure doesn’t really fluctuate, which is an advantage but can be a disadvantage at times.
Their game style does hold up for about 85 per cent of the time, but that doesn’t win you a flag. This is a golden opportunity though.
X-factor- Charlie Dixon. He epitomises Port Adelaide – he kicks a lot of goals against the lower level teams but it yet to consistently do so against the best. Here’s his chance.
3. GEELONG
Geelong in a way feels a lot like Dad’s Army. When you hit 30 in this game you’re usually shown the door, but they’re apparently ageless down at the Cattery.
The way they manage players is exceptional and they brought in even more experience at the end of last year despite having just played in a grand final.
They were a little bit patchy earlier in the year before finding their feet. Their depth is elite across the board and it serves them well. What also serves them well is their many avenues to goal.
Their weakness, if there is one, is the loss of Tom Stewart, which is massive. My other question mark is their ruck stocks, as no one has yet really cemented that spot. Although, they’re still finding a way mostly and they’re my tip for the flag.
X-factor- Mark O’Connor. A bit of a left field choice, but I think tagging will become a feature in September. O’Connor might not win a game off his boot, but I can see him playing a key role in some big games.
4. BRISBANE
Brisbane having snuck into the top four by the skin of their teeth, have taken a different approach this year.
The Lions started off the season quite slow but they then had that little streak during the middle of the year where they really hit their straps.
They’re very high scoring, and when they get going they’re very hard to stop.
The way they move the ball is very similar to Geelong in that they have a fair few avenues to goal, which plays well in September.
There is now one less with Eric Hipwood out, but all of their weapons have stood up at different times.
They can score quick and score a lot, which is what still makes them such a threat. Last year going into September it was seen as theirs to lose due to home ground advantage, but there’s not as much external pressure now with the focus more on other teams.
They’ve snuck under the radar and that may be a plus.
X-factor- Dayne Zorko. He’s enjoying another stellar season and in the top five for many key stat areas, such as inside 50s and score involvements.
5. WESTERN BULLDOGS
What a heartbreaker for the Bulldogs at the weekend, giving up the double chance right at the death.
Can they mentally recover from that setback and what will they bring into the finals? We know that when their pressure is elite, they’re very hard to beat.
When a little bit off, they’re vulnerable to being opened up. That’s because they play more of a looser zone defence rather than man on man.
They’ve been consistent all year, but the past month they’ve dropped away a bit. On one hand that’s understandable because it’s a long year and you can’t be up for 23 weeks, but their midfield is loaded and they get plenty of good and different looks through their engine room.
What their best balance is would probably be the hardest question to answer in terms of who plays and who misses out. It’s probably a good problem to have at times, and it might be one of their midfielders who misses out.
They have the second best percentage in the league, but speaking as a backman here, if the pressure is not being applied up the field they’re in danger of being exposed more than other side in the eight.
X-factor- Tom Liberatore. He’s been not at his best the past few weeks, but when he’s winning the inside ball and feeding it out, it makes a big difference.
6. SYDNEY SWANS
The Swans have been the surprise packet of the season in more ways than one. Firstly, the fact they’re playing finals is a shock to many.
Then during the year they won some games they weren’t expected to and then they’d drop games many thought they’d win.
The quickening of their ball movement and their more aggressive style of defending has helped them to score and be more dangerous.
That’s a combination of veterans having good years while also throwing in some youth. It used to be that you knew exactly what Sydney was going to do every week, but the look they’ve given this year is hard to read, which may be why in some games they’ve looked like flag favourites and in others like they’re a bottom four side. But when they’re on, they’re on.
X-factor – Isaac Heeney- Has been in very good form as that Toby Greene style hybrid forward who can pinch hit in the middle. Hits the scoreboard consistently and can break open a game.
7. GWS GIANTS
Timing is everything. It took until the very end of the home and away season for the Giants to string a few wins together, and they’ve been their best two wins to date.
In Rounds 21 and 22 before just getting over Carlton in the final round. And one of those victories – against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium – was probably one of the best wins the club has ever had. That just shows the way they’re going.
They’ve blooded some youth in big games, and that Geelong win was the proof that it can work against the best.
They’re going into a finals series riding that wave of momentum, and they’ve done it without some key players they might get back, such as Toby Greene.
They have some great midfield depth and their unique hybrid forward line set-up also serves them well. But they’re another team that is vulnerable to an opponent getting a hold of them and causing damage.
X-factor- Sam Taylor, who’s my favourite player. Almost single-handedly won them the game down in Geelong and is a huge finals threat. And he hates losing, which I love.
8. ESSENDON
I see Essendon as being a similar test case to the Giants, because their timing has been spot on.
They had injuries and were a bit patchy early in the season, but that’s all turned around and they appear to be peaking at the right time.
The likes of Sam Draper, Dylan Shiel and Dyson Heppell all missed different periods, but they’re all coming back at the right time into a team that is playing with a lot of flair and aggression. And very importantly, they’re playing on confidence.
A lot of their stars, such as Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett and Jake Stringer, have had career-best seasons, so their good players are playing well and it’s lifting the rest of the team.
They’re really dangerous in attack and they can punish teams going forward, but in the same breath if they don’t take that opportunity going forward then they do give teams a chance going back the other way.
X-factor- Sam Draper. He’s a different cat and strikes me as someone who doesn’t think about footy too much, he just goes and plays. If he’s getting his hands on the ball and getting it to his mids, it’ll be a huge bonus for the Bombers.
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