AFL 2021: All the latest news and updates for week one of finals
If Richmond’s dynasty has taught us anything, it’s that timing your run is everything. Here are the in-form players ready to fire the finals series.
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Who’s ready to fire in the finals?
Who’s ready to fire in the finals?
Timing is everything and these are the players running into form at the right time of the year.
We asked Champion Data to find those whose performances have surged in the last month of the season, priming them for a finals assault.
Brisbane’s ‘Big O’ Oscar McInerney, Essendon’s Peter Wright, Melbourne forward Bayley Fritsch and Bulldogs midfielder Bailey Smith are among those to have upped their game ahead of the finals.
The analysis is based on Champion Data’s ranking points and compares performances from Rounds 1-14 to Rounds 15-23.
The players must have played a minimum of eight matches across the first block and five matches in the block of games leading into the finals.
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MELBOURNE
Bayley Fritsch has already kicked a career-high 47 goals this year but his form has surged at the right time of the year. Fritsch has had the biggest rankings rise of any Demon since the start of the season, up by 14 per cent from 63.8 to 72.6. The 24-year-old’s rankings rise was no doubt aided by a season-high seven-goal haul against Adelaide in Round 22. Fritsch is in good company at the Demons, who are aiming for their first flag since 1964 after claiming the minor premiership. Midfield star Christian Petracca had the next highest rankings rise late in the season, up by 13 per cent from 105.8 to 119.5, in an ominous sign for the Dees’ finals rivals. Backman Jake Lever, a rock in defence all season, has also had a rankings jump leading into finals, up 10 per cent from 87.1 to 96.2 in the run towards the finals.
PORT ADELAIDE
Defender Ryan Burton is running hot leading into the finals, according to Champion Data. Burton, who hasn’t missed a game for the Power this year, has recorded the sharpest rankings rise of any Port Adelaide player since the start of the season. In Rounds 1-14, Burton averaged 69.1 ranking points, which shot up by 21 per cent to 83.9 at the tail end of the season, highlighted by a 26-disposal performance in the Round 21 Showdown. Young star Connor Rozee’s form is also on the rise at the right time, with his rankings points jumping 16 per cent from 68.7 to 80. Young forward Todd Marshall, who has 10 goals since Round 15, has also had a rankings jump of 12 per cent to 68.3.
GEELONG
A feature of this same Champion Data analysis last season, defender Jed Bews has again found himself among the top Cats at the right time of the year.
No other Cat has had a rankings jump as sharp as Bews leading into finals, which is timely given the greater responsibility he now has following the loss of All-Australian backman Tom Stewart to injury.
As Geelong prepares for a qualifying final showdown against Port Adelaide, Bews can lean on a ranking points rise of 34 per cent from 49.9 in Rounds 1-14 to 67 in Rounds 15-23.
Forward Shaun Higgins, who averages an elite 19.4 disposals, has also had a rankings jump of 26 per cent from 71.4 to 90.3.
Former Hawk Isaac Smith’s form has also risen across his first season with the Cats as his ranking climbed from 82.5 to 100.6 late in the season.
BRISBANE LIONS
They call him the Big O and Brisbane ruckman Oscar McInerney has lived up to that moniker with the biggest rankings rise among the Lions leading into the finals.
From Rounds 1-14, McInerney was averaging 77.9 ranking points but has shot up to 115 in Rounds 15 to 23, a jump of 48 per cent, helped by a season-high 46 hit-outs against the Hawks in Round 20.
Forward Daniel McStay has also enjoyed a sharp rankings rise leading into finals, up 25 per cent to 84.3 on the back of 17 goals since Round 15.
Defender Harris Andrews was the other Lion whose form is also building into finals, with his rankings up from 92 to 100.9.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs might have lost their last three games of the home-and-away season but Bailey Smith’s output has increased at the tail end of the season, according to Champion Data.
Since Round 15, the midfielder with the flowing locks has recorded a ranking points rise of 21 per cent from 80.1 to 97.
The ruck has been an area of concern for the Bulldogs but Tim English’s ranking since Round 15 has also jumped 13 per cent from 83.1 to 94.2.
Caleb Daniel, averaging an elite 25 disposals this season, will also carry a 13 per cent ranking rise into the finals – now sitting on 100.4.
SYDNEY
Defender Nick Blakey had the sharpest rankings rise of not just any Swan but of any player leading into the finals, before the dashing backman’s untimely injury on the eve of the finals.
Since Round 15, Blakey has had a rankings rise of 64 per cent from 46 to 75.6 before he suffered a cracked fibula in Round 22.
Fellow defender George Hewett has also had a big rankings rise – up 52 per cent from 59.3 to 90.3 since Round 15.
Harry Cunningham completes the trio of Swans’ defenders, taking their best form into finals with his ranking up from 66 to 84.4 since Round 15.
GWS GIANTS
All-Australian defender Nick Haynes has had the biggest form surge for the Giants leading into the finals.
Haynes, who averages an elite 7.2 marks a game this season, has recorded a rankings rise of 23 per cent from 68.5 to 84.4 since Round 15.
After being restricted to just the four games last season, fellow defender Sam Taylor has bounced back to play 17 games for the Giants this season and his form has continued to rise across the season.
Since Round 15, 22-year-old Taylor’s player ranking points have increased by 19 per cent from 81.4 to 96.8.
Midfielder Xavier O’Halloran is the other Giant to have produced a significant rankings points rise, up 17 per cent to 59.7.
ESSENDON
They storm into the finals on the back of three straight wins and now here are the Bombers with the rankings points flying up.
Midfielder Matt Guelfi’s ranking points have taken off since Round 15 – up 45 per cent from 50.3 to 72.7.
Making his presence felt in his first season at the Bombers, big man Peter Wright has also had a sharp ranking points rise on the back of some big hauls in front of goal.
Wright booted seven goals against elimination final opponents the Western Bulldogs in Round 21 and followed that with four goals in the final round against Collingwood.
It has contributed to his player ranking shooting up by 30 per cent since Round 15 from 72.7 to 94.7.
The man they call The Package has also delivered, with his ranking climbing by 22 per cent from 83.8 to 102.6 since Round 15.
THE DAY A BLUE BATTLER BECAME A FINALS LEGEND
Nick Duigan could never have predicted his role as Carlton’s elimination final version of Teddy Hopkins, but he definitely sniffed something special on the breeze.
It was Sunday September 8, 2013, a ripsnorter of a spring day as he and fellow emergency David Ellard drove into an MCG packed with 94,690 baying fans.
Richmond was the white-hot favourite against a Carlton side only elevated into the finals after Essendon was dumped because of its peptides saga, but no one told Duigan.
“I remember David Ellard picked me up on the morning of the game and I said, ‘I don’t know what it is but I have a funny feeling one of us is going to play today’,” Duigan recalled this week.
“But sitting on the boundary line watching the team warm up that ship had sailed.
“The sun was shining and it was just the perfect day for footy and we were looking at each other thinking, ‘How good would it be to play today?”
“Five minutes later Brock McLean came in and he had pulled a quad or something in the warm-up and I was playing.
“The siren was about to go, I didn’t know if I was the sub or playing back or forward or mid, and the runner didn’t know.
“He had to run back to the bench to check and it turns out I had a defensive job on Brett Deledio.”
History will chart that football journeyman Duigan, who had kicked six career goals in 41 career games and would retire only weeks later, would kick four match-turning goals.
Like Hopkins in the 1970 Grand Final, he elevated himself on footy’s biggest stage.
“I just played free. I felt like it was a free hit and I was running around this beautiful sunshine and I just got lucky,” Duigan said.
“Every time I was open my teammates would hit me with these perfect kicks and I was just lucky to finish it off.”
Eight years on, the team Carlton displaced in the finals that day faces a similarly improbable Sunday elimination final.
Essendon has come from the clouds after a 2-6 start to the season, overcoming a player exodus, a first-year coach seemingly on the nose, and a playing list full of eager young kids.
Not to mention a crew of much-maligned and unfulfilled players including Peter Wright, Nick Hind, Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish, who have suddenly flourished under Ben Rutten’s tutelage.
But, as Duigan knows so well, there are seasons where the premiership remains elusive but lifelong memories are made.
Essendon, a decade-long laughing stock with a Twitter profile that charts the days ticking by since its last finals win in September 2004, has that chance on Sunday.
After five straight elimination finals losses with defeats ranging from epic to bizarre to downright deflating, the Dons have the wind at their back.
Mick Malthouse, who coached the Blues to that rare finals triumph, cannot wait to see if the Dons can complete the most unlikely finals charge with a drought-breaking victory.
“I wrote recently (in a Sunday Herald Sun column) that Essendon were the best side out of the eight and now they are in, they are one of those very rare sides in the bottom spots of the eight in ripping form,” he said.
“Finals can really be wasted. You can lose them and hope to play the next year and as Essendon proved it can be a long drought.
“So this big stage is what you play for. The Dogs are right out of form and need to learn to win again. They need to get the momentum back.”
He says Essendon has the tools to drag the momentum away from the Dogs, just as his Blues did in that upset as a hobbling Chris Judd began to control proceedings at half forward and the Tigers began to get nervous.
“It felt so good for Carlton people for a start, they had worked their guts out and it was an overwhelming year. Everyone was pointing their fingers at us and saying we didn’t deserve to be there. But we did. Someone cheated and we got in there. It’s the rules of the game. “Richmond hadn’t won a final for a long while and it’s amazing that doubt takes away initiative, it takes away positive thoughts. The game just very rarely runs to script.”
Denis Pagan used to state that finals football doesn’t build character, it reveals it.
Malthouse believed reputations were truly established on the big stage.
For Bulldogs captain Marcus Bontempelli, mauled by GWS in the 2019 elimination final and poor in last year’s St Kilda finals loss, it is time to stand up.
For Port Adelaide, with one foot in a Grand Final if it can use its Adelaide Oval advantage to defeat star-studded Geelong, how does it use that home-ground roar to trample the Cats?
For Lance Franklin, so often banged up in recent finals, can this month bring sweet vindication on a $10 million deal so many mocked?
Malthouse again on that pressure: “I have seen a lot of good players have what they would call ordinary or below-average performances in September.
“Far be it for me to say Franklin is a finals failure because he hasn’t been, but has he produced near the top end of his game like Gary Ablett did?
“Ablett produced near the top end of his game in nearly every final he played? Names are made and broken in finals.”
NO. 1 TO NO. 65: Will Bont’s shocking form slump cost Dogs?
Western Bulldogs captain Marcus Bontempelli is “working his butt off” despite a noticeable drop in form which has seen him labelled as the “poster boy” for his side’s current woes.
Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge leapt to the defence of his skipper on Tuesday, but conceded Bontempelli’s numbers were down and “chemistry” was lacking among the side’s wider midfield group.
Bontempelli statistically ranked as the No. 1 player in the competition after Round 15, but dropped to a ranking of No. 65 for Rounds 16 to 23.
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The midfielder logged an equal season-low 15 disposals against Port Adelaide last Friday night and has kicked just five goals from his past eight games after booting 21 majors across his first 14 matches.
“We study the game quite forensically afterwards and when we do we see Marcus trying to put out spot fires, trying to help defensively, competing in the air behind the ball, getting to the stoppage, working his butt off trying to create offensive opportunities,” Beveridge said.
“He’s still working as hard as he possibly can for the team and we respect that, we put it up in lights and that’s happening internally and that’s what we see. I understand what you see as far as the numbers and maybe the qualitative aspects but, rest assured, he’s still working as hard as he ever has.”
Former St Kilda champion Nick Riewoldt said on Fox Footy on Monday that Bontempelli entered finals “under the most pressure of anyone in the competition” given both his individual form drop and that of his team.
The Bulldogs have lost their past three matches, which has seen them slide from first on the ladder to fifth and now face a cutthroat elimination final against Essendon.
However, Beveridge said Bontempelli was not alone in a midfield group that was not having the impact it had earlier in the season.
The Bulldogs ranked No. 1 in the competition for both contested possession differential and clearance differential across the first six rounds of the season but were bottom-six in both areas across the final five weeks.
Stoppages have been a strength for Essendon over the past six weeks, with the Bombers ranking No. 1 from clearances differential and No. 2 for points from stoppages.
“I think his (Bontempelli’s) effect on the game and his influence is symptomatic of how that whole group are playing,” Beveridge said.
“The chemistry, the cohesion that we established earlier in the year – we haven’t been able to re-establish as yet. So this game is a glaring opportunity for us to get that closer to the mark that it has been and that will help (Bontempelli’s) game, there’s no doubt about it, because you spread the load.”
How 30 seconds changed the premiership race
Brisbane’s golden point kicker Lincoln McCarthy admits it was only seconds before he put boot to ball in the dying moments of Saturday’s game that he realised he could kick the Lions into a top-four spot.
Not too many behinds are celebrated in the manner the Lions did on Saturday night at the Gabba but it was one of the most important points in club history when McCarthy delivered a towering snap in the final 30 seconds of Brisbane’s 38-point win over West Coast.
The point allowed Brisbane to leapfrog the Bulldogs on the ladder and finish the season in fourth spot, gifting them a valuable double chance in the finals.
The players had been kept informed throughout the match of the mathematics and number of points needed to jump up into fourth spot but McCarthy admitted it was only seconds before his kick that he was told of the importance of the point.
“It had been a pretty frantic five minutes because we were just trying to score,” McCarthy said.
“We couldn’t really get it to happen that much.
“About 20 seconds before I got the ball, Lachie (Neale) said to me ‘we just need one point and we’re going to be top four’.
“I didn’t know who else knew we only needed a point.
“Brandon Starcevich quickly gave the ball to me and I just chucked it on the boot and kicked it in the vicinity of either the goals or the point – I was happy with either.
“It had a lot of bend on it but I was pretty confident it went around the post.
“It felt weird celebrating a point but that’s what we needed at the time and it’s lucky it came off.”
The Lions are now preparing to play Melbourne at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday for the first week of their 2021 finals campaign and McCarthy said they were looking to make the most of their opportunity.
“There was a fair period there over the last month where we were pretty sure we wouldn’t make top four, regardless of if we got the wins on the board,” he said.
“Obviously, there was a couple of upsets that meant we were able to get the opportunity for a double-chance.
“It’s not the be-all and end-all.
“If you’re good enough in the top eight, you should be able to make it from anywhere.
“It’s also a really good feeling knowing you’ve got a double chance.
“Now we’ve just got to execute and deliver on our opportunity now.”
Final ladder positions for the Lions and Bulldogs
Pos Team Wins Pts Perc
4 Bris Lions 15 60 133.27
5 W Bulldogs 15 60 132.84
How the ladder would have looked without the seven points scored by Lincoln McCarthy and Charlie Cameron
Pos Team Wins Pts Perc
4 W Bulldogs 15 60 132.84
5 Bris Lions 15 60 132.83
PRESSURE? DEW CONFIDENT HE’S SAFE AT SUNS
Jon Ralph
Gold Coast’s football department will begin its year-ending review in coming days still expecting Stuart Dew to be the senior coach next season.
The Suns returned from Melbourne to begin 14 days of quarantine as speculation again swirls about the future of Dew after another miserable end to the season.
After wins against Richmond and GWS, a fighting 11-point loss to the Western Bulldogs and a brilliant first half against Brisbane the Suns fell in a slump.
The Suns lost to Brisbane by 49 points, Melbourne by 98 points, Essendon by 68 points and Sydney by 87 points, with only a 19-point Round 22 victory over Carlton as relief.
But the club’s continued discussions with Dew have been around surrounding him with more support staff including a senior assistant to replace Josh Francou.
Despite continued chatter regarding AFL House installing a new coach, chief executive Mark Evans has not had a single conversation about Dew’s performance with the league.
Evans has also backed in football boss Jon Haines despite continued speculation about his future, believing he has the tools to make an excellent long-running football boss.
Dew has been told by senior management figures at the Suns he will coach next year, having made clear in his final press conference of the season he had been given an assurance about his position.
Alastair Clarkson is not seen to be a contender to move north while his son is completing Year 12 next year in Melbourne.
In the volatile AFL landscape until the Suns publicly declare Dew is their senior coach for 2022 the rumour mill will continue to rumble.
The club’s staff and players are spending time with families and will in coming days have exit interviews with the list.
Then late in the week the football department will run a season review centring on coaching, leadership, game analysis, injury, with particular emphasis on ironing out the club’s inconsistencies.
The young Suns list played only two games at Metricon Stadium after Round 9, playing across the country at venues including Optus Stadium, the SCG, GMHBA Stadium, Blundstone Arena and Marvel Stadium.
Part of that review will be assessing what were legitimate excuses for the lack of performance putting in place concrete steps to improve the club.
Four times the club had to evacuate players from the Gold Coast and jump onto interstate flights to beat lockdowns.
But too many players also have not measured up to hefty pay packets or high draft selections, meaning Dew is yet to get anywhere near the best out of a young but hugely talented playing list.
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Originally published as AFL 2021: All the latest news and updates for week one of finals
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