Christian Petracca is favourite to win Rising Star and history is on his side

THE odds are in favour of Christian Petracca winning this year’s Rising Star, while history is against players yet to be nominated by now. See the standout stats for every nominee

CHRIS VERNUCCIO

3 min read

June 2, 2016 - 11:51AM

Melbourne young gun Christian Petracca is favourite to win the Rising Star. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

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DARCY Byrne-Jones and Callum Mills might consider themselves unlucky if they don’t take home this year’s Rising Star award.

Fearless Port Adelaide defender Byrne-Jones is the latest nomination but was made to wait since his debut in Round 3, while classy Sydney academy product Mills, an early favourite for the award, hasn’t received one yet despite playing every game this year in a team sitting second on the ladder.

Only three of the Rising Star’s 23 winners have claimed the honour when nominated after Round 9.

SCROLL DOWN TO SEE EACH NOMINEES’ STANDOUT STATS AND VOTE FOR WHO YOU THINK WILL WIN THE RISING STAR

The most recent was in 2012 when Adelaide defender Daniel Talia won after receiving his nomination in Round 12. The other winners were Justin Koschitzke (2001, Round 14) and Ben Cousins (1996, Round 12).

There is a possibility it could happen again with this year’s field the most even in recent memory.

But history shows the longer a player waits for his nomination the chances of winning are a lot harder.

The past two winners — Jesse Hogan and Lewis Taylor — were nominated in Round 9, which points favourably to Christian Petracca, who is favourite with the bookies.

Petracca’s Melbourne teammate Clayton Oliver was the first player nominated this season, with Round 1 nominations accounting for the most number of past winners (four).

The Rising Star is awarded on a 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 voting basis by a panel of judges.

Other players yet to be nominated include George Hewitt (Sydney), Toby McLean (Western Bulldogs), Darcy Moore (Collingwood), Josh Schache (Brisbane Lions), Jack Steele (GWS Giants), James Sicily (Hawthorn), Wayne Milera (Adelaide), Orazio Fantasia (Essendon) and Daniel Rioli (Richmond).

Sydney youngster Callum Mills is still waiting for his nomination. Picture: Phil Hillyard

2016 RISING STAR NOMINATIONS

Round 1: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)

Made a stunning debut with 22 disposals, 15 contested possessions and a game-high seven clearances in just 58 per cent game time. A powerful inside midfielder, Oliver is averaging seven ground-ball gets per game — rated above average for a midfielder and second of any mid at the Demons.

Round 2: Darcy Parish (Essendon)

The Bombers rated the pacy ball-winner the best midfielder in last year’s draft. Parish is rating average in disposals, contested and uncontested possessions, clearances and pressure acts. Kicked the match-sealing goal in Essendon’s shock 13-poing win over Melbourne.

Round 3: Jacob Weitering (Carlton)

The No.1 pick has showed poise beyond his years as a key defender before a shouldr injury in Round 6 against Essendon. Has since battled in his return but is averaging 15 disposals and two intercept marks a game, which is above average.

Round 4: Caleb Daniel (Western Bulldogs)

The 168cm ball magnet has displayed excellent skills and endurance and is ranked elite for disposals (22 a game) and uncontested possessions (16).

Caleb Daniel is ranked elite for disposals and uncontested possessions. Picture: Michael Klein

Round 5: Tom Papley (Sydney)

The 20-year-old rookie has kicked 11 goals from eight games and he’s dangerous at ground level, averaging two ground-ball possessions inside 50 per game.

Round 6: Blake Acres (St Kilda)

Was dropped twice this season before earning his nomination with a 28-disposal, two-goal game in the Saints’ win over Melbourne. The athletic inside midfielder is averaging 17 disposals and an above average 1.2 score assists.

Round 7: James Harmes (Melbourne)

Prides himself on winning the hard ball but is fast becoming a goalkicking midfielder with 11 goals this season. Ranked fifth at the Demons for scoreboard impact, which combines goals and behinds scored with score assists.

Round 8: Jacob Hopper (Greater Western Sydney)

The Giants academy star earned his nomination on debut after accumulating the most contested disposals ever recorded by a first-gamer. In three games Hopper is rated above average for contested possessions (11 a game), elite for ground-ball gets (10) and has won 49 per cent of his possessions contested.

Round 9: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)

Favourite to win the Rising Star, Petracca’s disposal average of 19 is elite for a forward. The No.2 draft pick has been involved in eight scoring chains a game — ranked second at the Dees.

Round 10: Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide)

Finally forced his way into the senior team in Round 3 and has played every game since after being drafted in 2013. The 20-year-old is averaging 18 disposals — above average for a defender — at an elite 83 per cent efficiency.

* Stats provided by Champion Data

PAST WINNERS (ROUND NOMINATED)

2015: Jesse Hogan (9) — Melbourne

2014: Lewis Taylor (9) — Brisbane Lions

2013: Jaeger O’Meara (5) — Gold Coast

2012: Daniel Talia (12) — Adelaide

2011: Dyson Heppell (1) — Essendon

2010: Daniel Hannebery (2) — Sydney

2009: Daniel Rich (1) — Brisbane Lions

2008: Rhys Palmer (3) — Fremantle

2007: Joel Selwood (5) — Geelong

2006: Danyle Pearce (3) — Port Adelaide