AFL SuperCoach trade guide: The rookies you should trade, watch and hold ahead of the bye rounds

THE rookie roller coaster is one of the most thrilling rides in SuperCoach, but it can leave you feeling ill.

THE rookie roller coaster is one of the most thrilling rides in SuperCoach, but it can leave you feeling ill.

It sent us through the corkscrew last round with popular cheap picks taking a huge plunge.

Christian Petracca went from scoring 105 in Round 9 to 51 in Round 10. Sam Kerridge dropped from 105 to 68, Ben Kennedy 81 to 29 and Michael Hartley 63 to 19.

It was a stark reminder of why we want to trade them out of our teams and replace them with reliable high-scorers — coaches who picked up Matt Priddis last week were rewarded with a solid if not spectacular 101.

GET THE BEST TRADE TIPS FROM AL PATON, GILBERT GARDINER AND KATE SALEMME IN THE LATEST EPISODE OF THE SUPERCOACHES BOX PODCAST:

This week the hot target is Port Adelaide’s Robbie Gray, who has dropped to just $502,500 but won’t be that cheap for long after scoring 120 and 109 in his past two games.

The best way to get him is to trade one rookie down and another up, with the top candidates Kennedy and Hartley, using Brisbane bubble boy Rhys Mathieson to generate the required cash.

That’s if you have trades up your sleeve and the right dual-position players. And there are upcoming byes to consider. Enjoy the ride!

Melbourne forward Ben Kennedy struggled to make an impact against Port Adelaide. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

TRADE TIME

Ben Kennedy (Melb) $343,400

Av 73 BE 96

His 83,000 owners were wondering if he was a late withdrawal when he still hadn’t registered a stat halfway through the second quarter in Alice Springs. Scraped to a 29 and an $11,400 price drop. Offload him now before he falls further.

Michael Hartley (Ess) $294,200 def

Av 62 BE 95

An unexpected $13,600 price drop after he did a hamstring with just three handballs and 19 points on the board on Saturday night. Set to miss a couple — the urgency on trading him will depend on what your bench cover looks like it. If it’s solid, no need to rush but he will lose value as soon as he returns. Sam Collins looks like the obvious swap this week or next.

Mitch Brown (Ess) $299,500 fwd/mid

Av 60 BE 51

Only scored 46 against the Tigers and lost $13,100. Has hit his ceiling.

Ryan Crowley (Ess) $281,300 mid

Av 56 BE 62

Has crossed the magic average v break-even threshold. Time to go.

Connor Menadue (Rich) $226,300 mid/fwd

Av 50 BE 57

Even if he gets back into the team (no guarantee) he’ll struggle to make any money.

Essendon midfielder Darcy Parish has done his job this year. Picture: Getty

Darcy Parish (Ess) $328,900 mid

Av 71 BE 80

Scored four points below his season average and lost $900. Will hover around this price. Has gained $126k since Round 1 and the perfect candidate to jump to Robbie Gray or Matt Priddis.

Callum Mills (Syd) $318,300 mid

Av 68 BE 47

Just made his break-even last week and should again against Gold Coast but he’s not going to gain much more in value. Upgrade when he suits your plans — now is as good a time as any.

ALARM BELLS

Sam Kerridge (Carl) $387,800 mid/fwd

Av 83 BE 60

Just 68 in a famous Blues win and two scores above 80 in his past five games. Has gained $250k since Round 1 and might not be the keeper we thought. Has Brisbane and St Kilda in his next two then the bye which could be the perfect time to cash him in.

Clayton Oliver (Melb) $310,900 mid

Av 68 BE 56

His price graph is like a staircase — up then flat, up then flat — as the Dees manage his workload. Not the worst pick but if a trade presents itself he doesn’t demand a spot.

Marcus Adams (WB) $355,900 def/fwd

Av 86 BE 53

Returned from injury and slotted straight back into the Dogs’ back six, scoring 84, two off his season average. Picked up $6000 in value. Can he get to $400k?

George Hewett (Syd) $286,700 mid

Av 61 BE 22

Back in the black after his 87 two weeks ago and can make a little bit more money, but you won’t lose any sleep trading him now.

Matt Dea (Ess) $380,700 def

Av 74 BE 43

Should get to $400k in coming weeks.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti in full flight. Picture: Getty

KEEP

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (Ess) $368,300 def/fwd

Av 76 BE 43

Another 82 points and $16,200 in the bank after Dreamtime at the G. Hasn’t dropped below 70 in the past month.

Josh Smith (Coll) $288,200 mid

Av 74 BE 28

More money to be made here and a safe on-field option with just one score below 60 in six appearances.

Christian Petracca (Melb) $277,200 fwd/mid

Av 73 BE 10

Crashed to earth with his worst score of the season (51). Hawks this week present a big test.

Ryan Davis (GC) $228,200 mid

Av 56 BE -19

This is the Ryan Davis we have been waiting for! A big 90 against the Eagles sends his break-even back into the negative. Let’s see more of that.

Jacob Hopper (GWS) $247,000 mid

Av 79 BE 17

Last week’s hot bubble boy jumped $53k but we were hoping for more than a 57 after forking out almost $200k.

Port Adelaide Rising Star Darcy Byrne-Jones (right) running laps with Jackson Trengove and Hamish Hartlett. Picture: Sarah Reed

Darcy Byrne-Jones (PA) $315,200 def

Av 88 BE 44

Showed how one good score can change a rookie’s fortunes — if only we could predict when they were going to happen. Dropped $8k but should shoot up again next week.

Ben Keays (BL) $235,500 mid

Av 60 BE 39

Break-even should ensure another modest price rise but he’s only a bench back-up.

Jacob Weitering (Carl) $275,600 def

Av 67 BE 68

Where are the big scores we saw early in the season? Will hopefully bottom out in price this week and start making money again.

Jade Gresham (StK) $213,800 mid

Av 47 BE 15

Up $13k on the back of a season-high 70 against the Dockers.

Josh Dunkley (WB) $167,000 mid

Av 61 BE -22

Surprise bubble boy returned for his third game six weeks after his second and scored 89 against the Pies for a $50k price rise — great news for his 26,000 dedicated owners. Should hold his spot.

Mason Cox (Coll) $264,000 ruck/fwd

Av 62 BE 49

Has gained nearly $150k and that might be about it. How will he go with Travis Cloke in the side? Real value could be as a back-up for the sore Todd Goldstein this week.

Ben Crocker (Coll) $166,800 fwd/mid

Av 44 BE 19

Went up $26k after a 52 and projected to max it out in two weeks at about $190k.

Kaiden Brand (Haw) $163,100 def

Av 54 BE 0

Dropped last week but could return to replace the injured Matt Spangher.

Darcy MacPherson (GC) $154,800 mid

Av 60 BE -10

Listed as 8 weeks away on the Gold Coast injury list so he won’t even provide cover during the byes. Disaster.

Rhys Mathieson on the bubble after playing two games. Picture: Darren England

BUBBLE BOYS

Rhys Mathieston (BL) $117,300 mid

Scores: 59, 53

BE -42

Not setting the world on fire but solid enough scores to be the top downgrade target this week. Has already won 10 free kicks and will be hoping the AFL doesn’t crack down on players going low to attract high contact. Projected to gain $43k after his third game.

McKenzie Willis (GC) $117,300 fwd/mid

Scores: 31, 33

BE: 5

Rodney Eade said he isn’t ready but the Suns don’t have anyone else. Projected to make $12k next week, $10k the week after and that’s it. No thanks.

Jackson Paine (BL) $127,900 fwd

Scores: 45, 47

BE: -15

A little better than Willis (projected $18k price rise) but not by much. Is a forward and we haven’t seen many of them but still a very dicey proposition.

Also on the bubble when they play their next game ... Kieren Lovell, Bailey Williams, Tom Lee, Darcy Tucker, Jason Castagna.

ONE-GAMERS

Sam Collins (Frem) $117,300 def

Score: 59

Job security seems solid with the Dockers’ long injury list. Looked at home on debut and will be a popular trade next week after game two.

Tom Cole (WC) $117,300 def

Score: 48

Finally broke through for his AFL debut but Mitch Brown and Elliot Yeo are due back this week so he could be straight out of the side.

Originally published as AFL SuperCoach trade guide: The rookies you should trade, watch and hold ahead of the bye rounds