Western Sydney’s future $2m-plus suburbs revealed

Parts of Western Sydney are on track to have $2m-plus home prices by 2028, new research shows. See what prices will cost in your suburb

Average home values of over $2m could become a reality for parts of the Greater Western Sydney area as early as 2028 if prices continue growing at the same stellar rate as the past five years.

Suburbs that would be set to join the exclusive $2m-plus club in just five years included Harrington Park in the outer southwest, Oatlands, just east of Parramatta and Hills suburb Kellyville.

Median prices would also surpass $2m in The Ponds, Pitt Town and Kellyville Ridge, while being only a few thousand dollars under $2m in North Rocks and Glenwood, according to exclusive PropTrack analysis.

These suburbs would join western suburbs that have already reached this milestone, such as Castle Hill, Bella Vista, Dural, Beaumont Hills, Cherrybrook, Glenhaven and Kenthurst.

The median dwelling price in Kellyville, based on sales of both units and houses, would hit $2m by 2028.

The research examined what prices would be in every suburb across the country if the trajectory of growth since 2018 continued. The period saw two market downturns and an 18-month boom period.

PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said the analysis was not an exact forecast for the market because multiple factors could influence price rises and previous growth was not a sure indicator of future rises.

But Mr Ryan added that one of the main contributors to price increases – buyer demand exceeding housing supply – would continue for many more years due to lacklustre building activity and rising population growth.

Hotspotting director Terry Ryder said home prices were primed to grow in much of the Greater Sydney area because the more affordable houses could attract more buyer demand.

Mr Ryder noted that the Canterbury-Bankstown region was a prime example of affordable prices increasing demand.

“The LGA has benefited from the shift in market focus to more affordable suburbs for houses as well as the uplift in demand for locations offering apartments at attractive prices,” Mr Ryder said.

“This has enabled the City of Canterbury Bankstown to maintain healthy levels of sales activity throughout 2022 and into 2023.”

Mr Ryder observed a similar trend in the Parramatta region, which would also get an added price boost from higher population growth new infrastructure like new train stations and light rail.

Auctioneer Stu Benson at a recent auction in Kellyville, an area that has been on the up.

“The promise of jobs generated by the second Sydney airport and the associated Aerotropolis manufacturing and logistics hub is another key attraction for first-home buyers and investors,” Mr Ryder said.

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“As a result, the Parramatta LGA has emerged as a notably strong market in the Greater Sydney area, at a time when the Sydney market overall has struggled.”

The availability of affordable apartments was a key element in driving buyer demand in the City of Parramatta, Mr Ryder said.

“The number of people living in high-rise units in the Parramatta precinct is among the highest in Australia – and there are numerous high-density developments under construction or in the pipeline, including several build-to-rent projects,” Mr Ryder said.

Oatlands, where there are already some significant homes, would be one of Western Sydney’s most expensive areas in 2028.

PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said Sydney was not building enough housing to keep pace with population growth.

PropTrack’s research indicated some of the priciest suburbs in the region come 2028 would Picnic Point and Belfield, with median dwelling prices of $1.6m and $1.79m, respectively.

The priciest suburb within the Greater Parramatta area would be Oatlands, with a median of $2.31m, according to PropTrack.

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Greater Sydney’s median house price was expected to grow from the current $1.33m to $1.96m, while the median unit price would change from $750,000 to $916,000.

The study also showed properties under $650,000, the cap for first homebuyer incentives like the stamp duty exemption, would be incredibly rare in five years.

Auctioneer Michael Garofolo, director of Cooley Auctions, has been calling many of Western Sydney’s top sales over recent years and said home values in the region have been marching upwards over the years.