Tim Blair: Mice may decide the Upper Hunter by-election

It’s hard to pick the unluckiest candidate in the Upper Hunter by-election — the one who received a donation from Malcolm Turnbull, or the Animal Justice Party bloke.

Just how many issues does a single NSW by-election need?

In the Upper Hunter, voters can take their pick between coal mining, climate change, battery hens, coronavirus lockdowns, hospitals and roads.

Oh, and also former PM Malcolm Turnbull. And mice.

Certain northwestern booths may wish to hasten their counting before ravenous mice render ballots unreadable.

Independent candidate Kirsty O’Connell.

Ex PM and campaign donor Malcolm Turnbull.

On coal, Nationals candidate Dave Layzell, Labor’s Jeff Drayton, One Nation’s Dale McNamara and Sue Gilroy of Shooters, Fishers, Farmers all appear united in support.

But it isn’t that simple.

Layzell and Nationals leader John Barilaro are talking up coal, but both are viewed by many as compromised due to the party’s Liberal partnership.

And while Labor’s Jeff Drayton has secured an agreement from his party that Labor’s climate change wing wouldn’t interfere with his pro-coal platform, he is still seeking to represent a party that as ­recently as 2019 ran a doomed climate election campaign.

So, while coal-supportive locals — which is to say almost all of them — are fans of Drayton’s message, they wonder how effective he can be in a ­climate change party.

The Animal Justice Party’s Michael Dello-Iacovo.

A mouse plague is destroying rural NSW. Picture: ABC News

On the other side of the ­climate argument are independents Tracy Norman and Turnbull-backed Kirsty O’Connell.

The ex-PM this week donated $3000 to O’Connell’s campaign.

Well, that’s O’Connell done then. The last time Turnbull made a political donation it was $1.75 million to his own party, and they subsequently almost lost the 2016 election.

And poor Michael Dello-Iacovo. If ever there was a bad time to be representing the Animal Justice Party, it’s during a mouse plague.

General wisdom puts the Nats as favourites for the primary vote, but beyond that, we’re looking at such a complicated preference cascade that some don’t expect a clear result by the close of counting on Saturday night.

And if mice get into the ballot boxes, we might have to go through all of this again.