Election 2022: Which towns ‘flipped’ in Gilmore this Federal Election

Devastating losses suffered by Labor in key booths across the Gilmore electorate have made for a tight race between the major parties, with counting likely to continue into its second week.

More than a thousand uncounted postal votes remain between Liberal party candidate Andrew Constance and victory in Gilmore after a surprising 13.3 per cent swing on Saturday.

As of Friday, only 286 votes separate Mr Constance from his incumbent Labor rival, Fiona Phillips, who was dealt a blow on election day with swing of up to 13 per cent against Labor in once safe areas.

On a first party preferences basis, Ms Phillips currently trails the Liberals by more than 6000 votes. That number, though, is only a little less than 1000 short of its 2019 results, with votes still uncounted.

On a two-party preferred basis, Ms Phillips has faced setbacks in key areas such as Batemans Bay and Shoalhaven Heads which flipped from Labor to the Liberals in 2022.

Of the 63 polling places, Ms Phillips retains a majority in 38 of them.

But she only increased her margin in 11 booths.

Polling stations at Nowra PPVC and Kiama PPVC were the only booths to “flip” to Labor.

By contrast, Mr Constance wrestled 13 booths from Labor, garnering a majority of votes in largely southern areas of the electorate, including:

• Basin View
• Batemans Bay
• Batehaven
• Cudmirrah
• Culburra
• Currarong
• Greenwell Point
• Lake Conjola
• Malua Bay
• Mogo
• Shoalhaven Heads
• South Durras
• Sunshine Bay
• Terara

In Mogo, Mr Constance secured his biggest swing.

In the disaster-addled area, the Liberal candidate secured a massive swing of 15.83 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, leaving Labor with 44 per cent of the ballot. In general, towns hit hard by the Black Summer fires swung against Labor.

On a single-party basis, the former State Transport Minister performed strongest in Falls Creek, in the Shoalhaven, with 51 per cent of first preference votes. Labor secured only 28 per cent, its second lowest.

For Ms Phillips, her strongest result was in Kangaroo Valley with 41 per cent of first-preference votes, with The Greens also snagging 18.85 per cent. Mr Constance garnered only 28 per cent.

Ms Phillips had frequented the area throughout her campaign after it was left isolated, and its businesses reeling, from floods and storm events in March.

But that sort of targeted campaigning didn’t yield results everywhere.

Despite visiting South Durras to make targeted infrastructure promises – which were also backed by the Liberals — Ms Phillips lost the booth to the Liberals by a swing of 8.1 per cent.

The booths where Ms Phillips saw a positive swing include:

• Gerroa
• Jamberoo
• Kangaroo Valley
• Kiama PPVC
• Kiama South
• Minnamurra
• Narrawallee
• Nowra-Bomaderry
• Nowra PPVC
• Ulladulla PPVC

On average, Ms Phillips performed stronger in the region’s built-up areas: Nowra, Kiama, and Ulladulla.

In Nowra, Ms Phillips averaged more than 50 per cent in most of the city’s booths of first preference votes, with losses to Mr Constance being felt in Nowra Hill and Nowra East.

On a two-party preferred system, Ms Phillip garnered 53.07 per cent across the city’s nine booths, but did suffer from a swing of -2.99 per cent. In Nowra Hill, the swing was 8.92 per cent.

In Kiama, Ms Phillips stood at 54.2 per cent, with a -0.26 swing, while in Ulladulla, she garnered 52.85 per cent of the vote, with a static swing between the two booths.

Surprisingly, fringe independent and anti-vax candidate Nina Digiglio performed well in southern areas of the electorate, despite her self-proclaimed focus on the Shoalhaven.

Ms Digiglio has so far accrued 4832 first preference votes.

In Batemans Bay and Burrill Lake, she garnered more than 5 per cent, while in Mogo, where Ms Phillips suffered her biggest loss, she received 6.5 per cent. Her best performing booth was Greenwell Point.

As a result, Ms Digiglio has become an unlikely kingmaker.

As for the other independents and minor candidates, The Greens performed best in Kiama (19 per cent), Kiama South (24 per cent), and Bawley Point (20 per cent), in terms of first preference votes.

In Long Beach and Nelligen in the south of the electorate, the United Australia Party secured 6.77 and 6.67 per cent of the first preference vote respectively.

In Sanctuary Point, six per cent of the first preference vote went to One Nation.

Overall, in-person voting was down across the electorate compared to 2019.

In Vincentia, 408-less people cast their ballot in-person in 2022.

While in Nowra, numbers plummeted with 3546 less voters at Nowra PPVC, with other booths facing reduced numbers ranging from 200 to 500.

By contrast, Batemans Bay, Ulladulla, and Kiama all recorded improved numbers, with Kiama PPVC recording 1516 additional in-person voters.